By Anderson Ojwang
Could the leader of Azimio La Umoja, Raila Odinga, have faced significant opposition in his political stronghold of Nyanza, leading to his loss in the last presidential election?
And could the boycott have indirectly contributed to President William Ruto’s victory in the last election?
These are some of the tough questions that have emerged after the election and various data interrogations could give a glimpse of an answer to it.
Data from the Independent Electoral Boundary Commission (IEBC) shows Raila’s presidential Waterloo could have been from his birthplace of Nyanza which catapulted him to national and international prominence.
In the last presidential elections, Raila lost to his opponent President Ruto by 227,311 votes after he garnered 6,942,830 against the latter 7,170,141.
Ruto rode to victory after acquiring 50.5 percent against Raila’s 48.8 percent in the final results released by IEBC.
Statistics from the IEBC portal show that Ruto managed only voters 74,857 in the four counties of Luo Nyanza. But as Ruto performed dismally in Nyanza, Raila too had his motor jamming on the road.
The four counties namely Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori have been the bedrock of Raila’s politics.
But in the last general elections, voters from the region could have negated Raila’s fifth bid when 593,607 voters failed to participate in the elections.
The four counties had registered a total of 2,160,439 voters ahead of the election but at the ballot, Raila only managed to secure 1,566,832 votes which denied him presidency in the grueling contest.
This accounted for 30 percent of registered voters from Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori counties who did not participate in the elections at all.
Interestingly, in the controversial 2007 presidential election, the turnout in Nyanza was overwhelming and rock solid.
The incumbent President Mwai Kibaki won by garnering 4,58,721 votes against Raila’s 4,352,993 with each getting 46.42 percent and 44.07 percent respectively.
Data analysis from the IEBC portal showed Kisumu County had registered 606,754 voters and 419,962 votes were cast at the elections.
Siaya county had 533,595 registered voters with 371,201 turning out to vote.
In all these counties the voter turnout stood at 71 percent for Siaya, Kisumu county was at 72 percent, Homa Bay and Migori counties tied at 74 percent respectively.
In Migori County 469,019 registered voters while those who turned to vote were 294,034 while Homa Bay had 551,071 registered voters and 399,813 cast the votes.
Unlike in 2007, when Nyanza voted for Raila to be a near man and was able to marshal most of the votes from all the constituencies, in the last general election, the story was different.
Statistics show that in 2007 in all the constituencies in now Migori and Homa Bay counties, the turnout stood at over 86 percent.
For instance in Homa Bay, Ndhiwa constituency, the voter turnout was at 93.74 with Raila getting 57,380 of the registered voters of 64,529.
In Karachuonyo constituency the voter turnout was at 95.37 percent with Raila garnering 59008 votes out of the 62,040 registered voters.
In Mbita constituency the voter turnout was at 95.57 with Raila securing 38,451 votes out of 40,451 registered voters.
In Gwais, the turnout was at 92.68 percent with Raila garnering 31,605 votes out of 34,394 registered voters while in Kasipul Kabondo the voter turnout was 88.66 percent with Raila taking 68,631 of the 78,171 registered voters.
In Migori county, the trend was similar with Nyatike recording 94.83 percent turnout and Raila garnering 48,655 of 51,682 votes.
In Uriri constituency the voter turnout stood at 87.07 percent with Raila securing 33,661 of the 40601 votes while in Migori constituency the turnout was at 85.43 with Raila getting 51,648 votes out of 62,070 registered voters.
In Rongo constituency, the voter turnout was at 85.46 percent with Raila garnering 60,286 votes out of the 70,999 registered voters.
In Kisumu county, the voter turnout stood out at 88 percent with Kisumu Rural constituency had a voter turnout of 84.51 percent with Raila getting 44,129 votes out of 52,937 registered voters.
In Siaya for instance Alego constituency had a voter turnout of 88.11 percent with Raila garnering 71,188 of the 71,188 registered voters while Bondo constituency also had 85.45 percent with Raila getting 53,202 votes of the 62,352 registered voters.
Political analysts agreed that the number of dissenting voices in Nyanza could be on the rise and somehow have undermined Raila’s presidential bid to a larger extent.
They attributed the boycott largely to flawed ODM nomination, issuance of tickets, poor mobilization, and lack of competition among political parties in the region.
They said for instance in the last party nominations, the party opted to give direct tickets to all the gubernatorial candidates and this did not sit well with the voters.
For instance, in Homa Bay county where the party leadership opted to prevail upon the aspirants including party National Chairman John Mbadi, former MP Oyugi Magwanga, former Homa Bay County Secretary Isaiah Ogwe, Kuppet Secretary General Akelo Misore in favor of Gladys Wanga.
Former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero rebelled against the arrangement and opted to face off with Wanga at the ballot where he lost.
Kisumu Advocate Joshua Nyamori said flawed party nomination and issuance of direct certificates to candidates have negated Raila’s presidential bid and made a section of voters to boycott the exercise.
“From the IEBC data, it is clear that 30 percent of voters from Nyanza never voted. This is a serious concern that if not addressed will continue to affect candidates from the region,” he said.
Nyamori said voter registration mobilization is usually funded and conducted by aspirants and once they are rigged out, their supporters usually fail to vote.
“Out of frustration supporters of disfranchised aspirants opt not to vote. Equally, the affected aspirants also take low key in the election and this usually implies low voter turnout,’ he explained.
