By Anderson Ojwang
For the last four decades, he has remained Kenya’s political constant. The determinant of the political course and landscape. The master of political chase game and checkmates. The designer and creator of political alignments and realignment.
The alliance maker and breaker. The storyteller, the forgiver, and the sacrificial lamb, the breaker and maker of political unions and governments. The people’s president. Constant Presidential contender but after losing every election, remains the constant in all the successive regimes.
He is the enigma. The people’s father. The history maker of Kenya and the champion of constitutional order.
His political moves have often baffled his friends and foes alike who often have disapproved and feel cheated by the actions but in the end, have been left mesmerized by his political genius. His moves have shaped the political landscape of the country to date.
The political villain turned hero. Once a political pariah, left to rot in the dungeon of prison, returned to the stage to shape the political destination of the country. Today, he is fondly referred to as the enigma.
And could it be true that he is on the right path of history?
Meet Raila Amolo Odinga, once a prisoner over the alleged 1982 coup, released from prison and has remained a constant in the country’s politics after every presidential election.
Raila was arrested and charged with treason after being accused of being among the masterminds of the 1982 coup. He was released six years later in February 1988 but detained again in August of the same year to be released in June 1989.
From prisons to a political pariah, Raila returned to rule and reign over the political landscape to date.
The consequences of the 1982 attempted coup had lasting consequences on the country’s political landscape.
The opposition to the amendment of the constitution led to the arrest and imprisonment of Philomena Chelagat Mutai and George Anyona. 1982 and subsequently, multi-partyism was abolished and Kenya was thrown into a single state with Kanu as the ruling party.
Similarly, the infamous, Mlolongo system of voting was introduced to replace the secret ballot and was marred by widespread allegations of rigging.
Social Scientist Dr. Charles Muga poses that, could it be that Raila is on the right side of history and finds himself at the right place at the right time.
Dr Muga says every political move that Raila has made has shaped every aspect of the country’s socio-economic and political landscape.
Dr Muga says Raila has been the engine of the country’s politics for over four decades and it may take Kenyans another century to have a person to the stature of former Prime Minister.
“Some of Raila’s move seems very unpopular with the masses but at the end of, they usually turn out to be in the best interest of the country. This baffles many and leads us to the conclusion that he is probably on the right side of history,” he says.
Dr Muga says the decision by Raila to seek Ford-K leadership against then acting chairman the late Wamalwa Kijana and later resign from the party to seek re-election on the now defunct National Development Party (NDP) baffled many.
But to Raila, it turned out to be the right decision, and subsequently contested the presidency in 1997 and thereafter entered into political collaboration with then-President Daniel Moi.
“The decision by Raila to work with Moi, who imprisoned him shocked many. Many thought he was swallowed politically. But guess what, Raila left Kanu in shells and today, Kanu is like a dodo,” he says.
Dr. Muga says had Raila not joined Kanu, the party would still be strong and dictating the country’s socioeconomic and political course.
He says after the fallout, Raila declared the famous Kibaki tosha, which gave Kenya, the first opposition leader to be the president.
“The decision by Raila to support Kibaki did not go down well with the majority. But for the first term of Kibaki Presidency, the country’s economy grew and various infrastructural developments were realized,” he says.
Former Nyakach MP Pollyns Ochieng Daima agrees with the view that Raila is the country’s political constant and the most relevant politician in the history of the nation.
He says Raila often told them “If you were in a fight and your enemy is down. You do not step on him or kill him but you give him a hand to stand up. Then you reconcile and move ahead”.
He says in 2007 after the disputed presidential elections and with the outbreak of post-election violence. The majority thought Raila would not cede ground but were baffled when he opted for a grand coalition government with him settling for the Prime Minster seat.
He says Raila’s brand of politics is not based on the winner take it all but sharing to ensure prosperity of all Kenyans and that is why some of his decisions are so unpopular with his support base.
Dr. Muga says despite Raila participating in the presidential elections and losing, no regime can wish him away and that is why he is ever present in their administrations.
In 2017 after the Supreme Court nullified the elections of President Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila boycotted the elections and soon a handshake government was formed and the latter was a prominent figure.
After the 2022 elections, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua claimed he had placed traps in every part of the State House to prevent Raila from gaining access and having a slice of the cake.
“ We will not have any handshake government with Raila. I have spies who inform us if he tries to get to the state house and I have laid traps all over,” he said,
But currently, a broad-based government is in place with three former top Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) officials in the cabinet while Rigathi could be facing an impeachment soon,
Equally, President Rutos is supporting and campaigning for Raila to win the African Union (AU) chair.
Dr Muga says Raila could be the only Kenyan politician who understands the art and practice of politics in this country. The Enigma.
