By Anderson Ojwang
Of the two by-elections in Nyanza—Ugunja and Kasipul constituencies—Kasipul stands out as the most significant and the one likely to determine a new political dispensation in the region and the country.
Kasipul, in Homa Bay County, the bedroom of ODM and the late Raila Odinga, is seen as the yardstick to measure the emerging and delicate political course of the region.
Currently, President William Ruto has been making political inroads in Homa Bay and the wider Nyanza region with a view to inherit Raila’s vote bloc ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Kasipul has the highest number of UDA members, led by vocal political activist Odoyo Owidi, and hosts one of the party’s modern offices in the country.
For ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, this is the battle of her life and a litmus test of her ability to hold the party together during a stormy moment.
Similarly, the by-election marks the beginning of her journey to defend the gubernatorial seat in a post-Raila political matrix, where she will face off with her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga.
Magwanga is leading a strong combined force of professionals and UDA brigades, led by former Nairobi Governor Dr. Evans Kidero and former Migori Governor Okoth Obado, alongside a coterie of disenfranchised political leaders from the region.
Currently, ODM leadership is reading from different scripts—one faction supporting the broad-based government and the other opposing the arrangement.
That is why, when Wanga wrapped up the campaign for the ODM candidate Boyd Were, she said all eyes were on Kasipul constituency, as it would determine whether ODM was dead or still dominant.
Speaking in Kasipul, Wanga said the by-election was a litmus test for the party, with some leaders claiming ODM died with Raila Odinga.
“Everyone is watching Kasipul. Some people have said ODM died with Raila and is buried in Kango ka Jaramogi in Bondo. This is why I implore you to come out and vote for Boyd and the ODM party,” she said.
Over the weekend, former Migori Governor Okoth Obado said ODM died with Raila, was buried in Kango ka Jaramogi, and urged residents not to follow a ‘dead horse’, but to look for other political formations.
Obado said ODM had been split into two and died with Raila.
“Mokuongo ODM cha usekethe kendo osebarore. Koro iseyieche kocha gi koni. Oseyiech ka nanga ka pod itari ni iluwo bange wachni. En koth ma osechue ma orumo wechandori. ODM nnyocha en Raila. Raila ne en ODM. Koro Raila nnyocha osenindo.”
(ODM has been split right in the middle. If you are gullible enough to follow it, that is your problem. It is rain that has ended. ODM was Raila and Raila was ODM. It died with Raila and is buried in Kango ka Jaramogi.)
For Wanga, the storm is thick, heavy, and pregnant with guns blazing aimed at her, now that her political godfather is gone.
She has a battle of a lifetime to salvage her image and political career to survive post-Raila realignment.
Wanga is already facing a stiff challenge from the ODM wing opposed to the broad-based government, a faction that seems to enjoy the support of Siaya Senator James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, and Secretary General Edwin Sifuna.
She enjoys the support of party leader Dr. Oburu Odinga, Sam Atandi, Junet Mohammed, and Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi, among others.
Wanga has enjoyed a smooth political curve since her entry into politics, rising from women representative to governor.
The race for Kasipul is a two-horse race, pitting Independent Candidate Philip Aroko against Boyd Were, each enjoying the backing of the two political blocs.
Political analysts argue that the seat is crucial for future political realignments.
Analyst George Akongo argues that the by-election will determine the voting pattern—whether the region remains ascribed to the party or is changing trends following Raila’s demise.
“The election will determine whether the electorate remains loyal to Raila and the party, or if a wind of change is sweeping and the community is opening up to other political formations ahead of the 2027 general elections.
It opens the region to a wider political space and allows other parties to invest and compete with ODM on a level playing ground,” he said.
Akongo said Kasipul and Homa Bay were President Ruto’s entry point into Nyanza, and with the creation of the broad-based government, the region may be opening up to other parties.
He says the contest also provides an opportunity to know whether Wanga or Magwanga is in charge of local politics in Kasipul and, by extension, Homa Bay County.
“Who between Wanga and Magwanga has the people’s support and is the possible winner in the next general elections?” he asks.
The by-election will be used as a yardstick to determine whether the politics of inheritance still have space in the emerging dispensation.
