By Anderson Ojwang
President William Ruto has a date with Nyeri this Thursday at the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election.
President Ruto is staring at a possible history repeating itself. Thursday’s Ol Kalou by-election is a do-or-die for President Ruto. It is a must-win by-election to forestall major political ramifications.
President Ruto has kept off the campaign and left it to his lieutenants, while his main challenger, former deputy Rigathi Gachagua, has also kept away, leaving the party Secretary General and Nyandarua Senator John Methu the task of delivering the seat.
The irony
In September 1995, by-election, then President the late Daniel Moi faced off with the Democratic Party leader, the late Mwai Kibaki, in the contest.
Mwai Kibaki, from Nyeri, was supporting the party candidate Paul Githiomi Mwangi.
President Moi was from the Kalenjin community, and currently President William Ruto, his student and from his community, is presenting a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate, Samuel Muchina. Kibaki was Moi’s Vice President before he was sacked, and he later formed DP after the repealing of Section 2A that allowed multi-partyism.
President Ruto is facing his impeached former deputy Rigathi Gachagua, whose party, DCP, is presenting a candidate, Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru – Ngotho. Gachagua, after his impeachment, formed DCP, in which he hopes to contest the presidency and sponsor candidates in the 2027 general election.
The Nyeri factor
The recent death of Ol Kalou MP Njuguna Kiaraho prompted the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to gazette the constituency for a by-election.
The politics of Ol Kalou has been determined by Nyeri, with the first MP being the socialist and fiery politician, the late JM Kariuki, during the administration of the founding president, the late Jomo Kenyatta.
JM’s parents were originally from Nyeri but were displaced in 1928 from their family home in Chinga village.
In the late 1960s and early ’70s, Kariuki’s relationship with Kenyatta became increasingly strained as Kariuki became increasingly vocal in his criticism of Kenyatta’s governmental policies and their results, including high levels of government corruption and widening inequalities.
The government’s attempts to thwart his re-election as Nyandarua North MP in 1972 flopped because of his popularity among ordinary Kenyans.
While Kenyatta praised Kenya’s great progress, JM declared that Kenya “had become a country of 10 millionaires and ten million beggars.”
Moi faced Nyeri in 1995 and lost to his former deputy Mwai, and now Ruto is facing Nyeri again in Gachagua.
Moi and Ruto: Contrast and parallels
Paul Githiomi Mwangi of the Democratic Party (DP) won overwhelmingly, garnering 14,858 votes, against the ruling party Kanu’s Joe Maina, who only received 3,144 votes, accounting for 17.5 percent.
President Moi aggressively campaigned for the ruling party, KANU, and its candidate and delivered goodies to the residents to sway them to vote for the Kanu candidate.
In a bid to sway voters, KANU launched a rural electrification project and erected power poles. When the ruling party lost the seat, Moi controversially ordered the removal of the electricity poles.
President Ruto has also employed Moi’s script by taking votes to Ol Kalou, distribution of electricity, re-opening of railway services, among others.
In a recent social media post, Kenya Railways appreciated the overwhelming support for the re-opening of the Gilgil-Nyahururu-Ol Kalou railway line on June 2nd 2026.
“Kenya Railways remains on track in delivering the government’s development agenda by enhancing connectivity, supporting trade and agriculture, and driving socio-economic development across Kenya,” read the post.
Several government officials have been carrying out “goodies” missions, launching development and infrastructure projects across the constituency to bolster the UDA game plan.
Lands Cabinet Secretary Alice Wahome asked the electorate to support the UDA candidate during the development and inspected and commissioned key government projects.
Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries, Members of Parliament and Senators are among those who have flocked to Ol Kalou to drum up support for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Samuel Muchina.
Cabinet Ministers and Permanent Secretaries have been thronging the constituency, including Tourism and Wildlife CS Rebecca Miano, Energy Principal Secretary Alex Wachira, and Laikipia East Member of Parliament Mwangi Kiunjuri, to solicit votes for the government side.
Similarly, Central Kenya leaders allied to President Ruto, led by Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, crisscrossed the constituency drumming up support for Muchina.
Waiguru said the ruling party was confident of victory, arguing that the late MP had been a strong supporter of the Kenya Kwanza administration and that continuity in leadership was critical for development.
The 1996 collapse of Gema-Kamatusa
After the Kipipiri loss, the political formation Gema-Kamatusa, which was meant to bring the two regions together, collapsed over what was said to be unfulfilled electricity promises in Kipipiri.
Interestingly, President Ruto and his former boss, Uhuru Kenyatta, coined the political alliance that brought the two regions together after they were charged at The Hague over the 2007 post-election violence.
Uhuru pulled out of the union after the 2017 general elections and entered into a political handshake with the late Raila Amolo Odinga.
In the 2022 presidential election, Uhuru supported the Azimio La Umoja candidate but lost to Ruto.
Ruto, through Gachagua and other leaders from Mt Kenya, including Deputy President Prof Kindiki Kithure, mastered a victory.
Gachagua, after his impeachment, has declared war on President Ruto and has ganged up with Uhuru, DP leader JB Muturi, Martha Karua, and other leaders to lock the President out of Mt Kenya.
Last call
The DCP Party wishes to take this opportunity to sincerely thank the remarkable people of Ol Kalou Constituency for your resilience and unwavering support throughout the campaign period. Asante sana!
“We concluded our campaign on a high note at the Arboretum in Ol Kalou town, and DCP wishes our candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru – Ngotho the very best in the 16th of July by-elections!”
UDA wrote: “Asante sana Ol Kalou. Tunawapenda. A vote for Samuel Muchina Nyagah is a vote for development.”
Ruto’s date
President Ruto must stop history from repeating and must pull a surprise and deliver the seat to UDA ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
