By Anderson Ojwang
Despite the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) of President William Ruto attracting a historic turnout by aspirants, the State House forum acted as a wake-up call to the President.
UDA made history as the first political party in the multi-party era to attract the highest number of aspirants, 12,353, but the data portrays a worrying reality for the President ahead of the 2027 general election.
President Ruto could be enjoying the bragging right of his party attracting thousands of aspirants nationally, but the reality check is that all is not well in the den and he must act to change the emerging narrative.
Mt Kenya, which was the determinant and a springboard to Ruto’s victory in the 2022 presidential election, seems to have walked away from the marriage and could be seeking new suitors.
The impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua as Ruto’s deputy and the subsequent replacement by Prof Kithure Kindiki has radically changed the allegiance and shifted political loyalty.
From the statistics, Rift Valley attracted the greatest number of aspirants, standing at 5,308, while Central Kenya recorded 1,130, Western Kenya 1,200 and Nyanza stood at 1,095.
The Coastal region stood at 586, while Nairobi received 968 aspirants who registered and attended the meeting at State House. North Eastern stood at 586, while Eastern was at 1,479.
Rift Valley, the bedrock
Rift Valley is the President’s political backyard and UDA is the dominant political party in the region. In the last general election, all the counties in Rift Valley, predominantly Kalenjin-speaking counties, overwhelmingly voted for President Ruto.
The UDA wave left several political casualties in the region, including KANU chairman Gideon Moi, who lost the Baringo senatorial election.
The UDA dominance in the region has precipitated defections into the party by bigwigs from the region, including former Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto, among others.
The predominantly Kalenjin-speaking counties had the highest number of gubernatorial aspirants, while the cosmopolitan counties in the Rift Valley had few or even no aspirants.
Kericho County attracted 13 gubernatorial aspirants, while Baringo had 16, Bomet attracted three, Nandi had 10, Uasin Gishu six and Elgeyo Marakwet attracted 10.
Cosmopolitan counties such as Kajiado attracted one, Laikipia none, Nakuru three, Narok four, and Nyandarua attracted nil.
President Ruto’s political backyard of Rift Valley, for the moment, is solid and safe, and he will harvest similar votes to those he did in the last general elections.
Mt Kenya, diminishing fortunes
The restive Mt Kenya region has refused to calm down and continues to rebel against President Ruto, whom they overwhelmingly voted for in the 2022 presidential election.
The combined force of former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Gachagua is causing a political coup in the region against President Ruto and his deputy, Prof Kithure Kindiki.
In Kiambu County, only three aspirants have expressed interest in the governor seat, while in Kirinyaga and Nyeri only one aspirant has shown interest respectively, while in Murang’a none has shown interest.
Top guns in UDA from the region gave the forum a wide berth, a move which left tongues wagging and several questions emerging.
Nyanza, the hunting ground
Nyanza, which is the bedrock of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) of the late Raila Odinga, for the first time attracted aspirants from the region hoping to run on a UDA ticket.
However, in Kisumu County, the heart of Nyanza politics, the seat of governor did not attract any candidate, while in Homa Bay it attracted political minnows Odoyo Owidi and Mark Matunga.
In Migori, the post of governor attracted four aspirants, while in Siaya it attracted two, and in Kisii and Nyamira it attracted one and two aspirants respectively.
Currently, President Ruto and ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga are working on a pre-election pact ahead of the next general election. Recently, Oburu declared that ODM would not demand the post of Deputy President.
However, the pact is facing opposition from a section of leaders in ODM and the region, who have termed it premature.
Western region
Western Kenya was pivotal in President Ruto’s victory and entered into a political coalition with Musalia Mudavadi of the Amani Party and Moses Wetangula of Ford-K. Mudavadi was appointed Prime Cabinet Secretary, while Wetangula became the Speaker of the National Assembly.
Mudavadi dissolved his Amani Party to join UDA, but the court recently overruled the dissolution and the merger with UDA.
Kakamega County attracted three gubernatorial aspirants, while Vihiga attracted one, Bungoma four and Busia nil. Ruto is hoping to build his re-election momentum from Western Kenya and Nyanza, which explains his heavy investment in the two regions.
Eastern region
This is likely to be the battleground, as it is the political bedrock of Azimio La Umoja party leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Similarly, it is the home ground of Deputy President Kindiki. It is set to be a battleground.
Kitui County attracted three aspirants for the gubernatorial seat, Makueni two, Machakos none, while Tharaka Nithi attracted two, Meru one and Embu did not attract any gubernatorial aspirant.
North Eastern
Garissa attracted one gubernatorial aspirant, while Wajir attracted four, Mandera attracted six aspirants and Marsabit three. This shows the growing appeal of President Ruto in the region.
