By Billy Mijungu
The UDA Aspirants Forum offered a raw lesson in Kenyan politics. First, politics remains deeply local and stubbornly ethnic. This was evident from the overwhelming dominance of aspirants from Rift Valley, confirming that national branding has not displaced ethnic arithmetic.
Second, the forum prematurely exposed opponents of sitting MPs. By parading them too early, it handed incumbents a clear intelligence map. They now know who to neutralize, how early to plan, and where to concentrate resources. Strategically, this was a costly mistake.
Third, the forum doubled as a pilgrimage rather than a serious political contest. Many attendees appeared more interested in proximity to State House than in electoral viability. A look at the Migori list shows this clearly only a handful are serious contenders. Homa Bay stood out marginally, with fewer but higher quality aspirants.
There is also a dangerous illusion among some aspirants that UDA will bankroll campaigns nationwide. Many turned up driven by the belief that party affiliation equals financial support. That expectation is misplaced and will collapse painfully at nomination stage.
The Gen Z factor was notably absent. They are not organically aligned with UDA, and while they may not all vote, they decisively shape narratives, online momentum, and legitimacy. Ignoring them is not a neutral act it is a strategic blind spot.
Central Kenya’s turnout was underwhelming. The Mountain has clearly shifted, and the risk for UDA is not just that it moved, but that it may not return soon. This exposure weakens assumptions that Central Kenya remains a guaranteed bloc.
Western Kenya emerged as the second strongest region in attendance. That is not accidental. It is a strong signal of where the next Deputy President should come from if UDA is serious about arithmetic rather than nostalgia.
Overall, the forum failed to achieve its core public relations objective. Instead of building a perception of unstoppable national momentum, the moment the numbers were itemised by region, the wave slowed. Optics collapsed under scrutiny.
For President Ruto, coalition building is no longer optional. Winning without a broad coalition will be an uphill task. The single most consequential figure he needs is Kalonzo Musyoka.
Ruto’s remaining advantage is structural. He can campaign with two Deputies the sitting and exiting one and the incoming one on the ticket, reinforced by a powerful PCS. How effectively he deploys this advantage will determine whether UDA consolidates power or merely survives.
