By Anderson Ojwang
Jubilee Party Deputy Party Leader and presidential candidate Dr Fred Matiang’i got a rude shock from the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election and tasted the bitter pill of what awaits him in Mt Kenya in the 2027 general elections.
Matiang’i, relying on former President Uhuru Kenyatta to secure the region’s votes and bolster his presidential ambition, was reawakened by the party’s candidate performance at the just-concluded by-election.
The seat fell vacant after the death of area MP David Kiaraho, creating the first parliamentary electoral test in the constituency since the 2022 General Election.
The late Kiaraho was a member of the Jubilee Party and was first elected to the National Assembly in 2013 and successfully retained his seat in 2017 and 2022 on the Jubilee ticket.
Jubilee’s performance in the by-election
Jubilee Party dismally performed at the by-election, posting a marginal 198 votes through its candidate Wilson Mwaniki Kigwa and came third.
Jubilee Party joined the league of fringe parties in the by-election and Mt Kenya politics and now stands confined to playing a chase game against impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP.
In Jubilee’s league were Stephen Wanyoike Waithaka (NLP) with 103 votes, Timothy Kamau Kariuki (PM) who received 51 votes, Edwin Kariiri Muchiri (PNU) with 28 votes, Abdifatah Hussein Abdullahi (FPK) with 19 votes, Edward Mathenge Mwaniki (KMM) with 16 votes, and Rachael Wangui Njoroge (PDP) with 11 votes.
Top tier
In the top tier remains Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) and President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), bringing the two former allies turned rivals, Ruto and Gachagua, into the political ring.
The DCP candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho was declared the winner of the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election after garnering 35,440 votes.
According to the official results announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on Friday morning, Kamau garnered 35,440 votes to defeat United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Samuel Muchina Nyaga, who received 5,450 votes.
Flogging a dead horse to the presidency
Matiang’i could be flogging a dead horse to ride to the presidency in the 2027 presidential elections.
In Kenya’s presidential election patterns, political parties that have secured the presidency as a vehicle have only survived for a single term.
In 2002, the Democratic Party of the late Mwai Kibaki, the once popular party in Mt Kenya and parts of the country, in alliance with other political formations, founded the Narc Coalition.
The coalition delivered Kibaki’s victory against Uhuru of Kanu, and that marked the decay of DP, which is currently a Mt Kenya East political party and is struggling for relevance.
Exit DP, and in the 2007 general election, Kibaki rode to the controversial victory through the Party of National Unity (PNU) from a political onslaught of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) of Raila Odinga.
PNU decayed with Kibaki’s exit from the political space and has remained a marginal player.
In 2013, new kids on the block – The National Alliance (TNA) of Uhuru in alliance with Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP) under the banner of the Jubilee Alliance – won the elections.
But ahead of the 2017 elections, the parties folded and formed the Jubilee Party, in which they successfully won the elections.
In the 2022 general elections, President Ruto defeated the Azimio La Umoja coalition that brought together President Uhuru and Raila as the presidential candidate.
Uhuru has now handed over the Jubilee Party to Matiang’i, and already the former Cabinet Secretary for Internal Security is feeling Gachagua’s heat in Mt Kenya.
“Don’t step foot in Ol Kalou”
Gachagua told Murang’a Governor Irungu Kangata not to step foot in Ol Kalou to campaign for the DCP candidate. This could have been informed by Kangata’s decision to join Linda Mwananchi instead of his DCP party.
A stranger in the midst
Gachagua has already declared that DCP is the party of Mt Kenya and that those seeking elective posts should do so under the banner of DCP.
Matiang’i is the stranger in the midst in Mt Kenya and may find himself falling into the Mt Kenya trap.
Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Jeremiah Kioni said Gachagua was on a mission to lock other parties out of the region.
“I heard someone saying that in this region, we will only have one party. That is a very retrogressive statement. It is not a statement you should make, even if you want to achieve it. It is against the Constitution. If he had said it when I was there, I could have contradicted him,” he said.
Kioni warned that such remarks from Gachagua could have far-reaching consequences on the united opposition and could trigger misunderstandings among members.
Mudavadi’s experience
In the 2013 general elections, former Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi was touted as a possible heir apparent to Kibaki. Even Uhuru at one time supported Mudavadi’s presidential bid before he made a U-turn, claiming “demonic influence” on his earlier assertions.
Mudavadi chose Kioni as his running mate and performed dismally, even in his running mate’s backyard.
Change of tact
Matiang’i has in the recent past become closer to the Linda Mwananchi group of James Orengo and has held a series of meetings.
Similarly, Matiang’i and Orengo recently attended a function in Kisumu County, showing a change of tact and new political realignment.
Kisii votes
Matiang’i is assured of the Gusii community’s 960,000 voters but limps in Mt Kenya, as Gachagua and JB Muturi favour Kalonzo Musyoka as the opposition presidential candidate.
For now, the Ol Kalou by-election is a wake-up call to Matiang’i in his political dream.
