By Anderson Ojwang
In the 2005 constitutional referendum, the battle was christened as Mt Kenya against the rest of the country and subsequently then President Mwai Kibaki suffered a humiliating defeat.
The Banana wing of President Kibaki which supported the Wako Draft constitution were humbled by the late Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto Orange led wing of the anti-draft.
The Orange morphed into the Orange Democratic Movement(ODM) while Uhuru returned to the Mt Kenya fold to support President Kibaki re-election.
Another election with a combine force of Raila and Kalonzo was a tyranny of numbers and the decision by Kalonzo to run alone gave President Kibaki opportunity to ‘sneak’ in for a second term in what culminated into post-election violence and subsequent coalition government with Raila as the prime minister.
With the 2027 Presidential election just 17 months, it is emerging and getting clearer that Mt Kenya under DCP party leader Rigathi Gachagua and Kamba through Kalonzo have already built a political alliance for the general elections.
This alliance is a formidable force and creates tyranny of numbers which could easily ride to victory in presidential contest . On paper and constant, the duo would start at strength of 7,902,732 heading to the presidential election in terms of registered voters in the two regions.
In the last general election President William Ruto received 7,176,141 against the late Raila Amolo Odinga with 6,942,930 to win the presidency..
Interestingly, in the last general election Mt Kenya community had 4,168,414 vote cast while the Kamba community had 1,036,837.
From the above data, a Gema candidate would start at 5,205,251 votes against any opponent and they would only require few regions or community to easily sail to victory.
In analyzing the 2022 Presidential elections and the 2019 population census provide an interesting scenario ahead of the 2027 general elections and a paddle for a winning coalition arrangement.
The Mt Kenya population from its nine counties of Kiambu, Meru, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nthi ,Nyandarua, Laikipia, Muranga,and the Diaspora Nakuru and Nairobi gives a total population of 11,840746 against grand total population of 47,584,454.2,034,584 did not vote.
Mt Kenya have a registered voters of 6,202,998 with a voter turnout of 67.2 percent which translated to 4,168,414 votes cast in the last general election.
The Mt Kenya community population accounts for 24 percent of the country’s population and the percentage registration with in independent electoral and boundary commission stands at 28 percent and in the general election the high voter turnout against low turnout from other regions of the country gives them 32.35 percent of the votes cast as per the last general elections.
In the breakdown of the data to individual county in Mt Kenya, Kiambu accounts for 2,41735 in population which accounts for five percent of the country’s population with a registered voters of 1,275,008. In the 2022 general election the voter turn out was 65 percent with 828,755 turning out to vote while 446,253 did not vote.
In Meru county with a population of 1,546,714 which accounts for three percent of the national population with registered voters of 772,136 with 66 percent voter turnout.
In Kirinyaga county with a population of 610,411 which accounts for one percent of the country’s population with registered voters of 376,001 with a voter turnout of 70 percent. In the last general election 263,200 voted while 112,801 did not vote.
In Nyeri county with a population 759,184, which accounts for two percent of the country’s population with a registered voters of 481,652 and turnout of 68 percent. This accounts for 327,523 people who voted while 154,329 did not vote.
In Muranga county with a population of 1,056,640 accounts for two percent of the country’s population with a registered voter o 620,626 and 68 percent voter turnout. Which translates to 422,025 votes while 198,601 did not vote.
In Tharaka Nthi county with a population 393,177 and accounts for one percent of the national population with a registered voters of 231,932 while 70 percent voter turnout. This translates to 162,352 votes cast while 69,580 did not vote.
In Embu county with a population of 608,599 which accounts for accounts for one percent of the country’s population with a registered voters of 334,302 and 67 percent voter turnout. This translates to 223,982 votes cast while 110,320 did not vote.
In Nyandarua county with a population of 638,289 which accounts for one percent of the national population with a registered voters of 361,165 with a turnout of 67 percent. This translates into 241,979 votes cast while 119,184 did not vote,.
In Laikipia county with a population of 518,560 which accounts for one percent of the national population with a registered voters of 263,012 with a voter turnout of 65 percent. This translates to 170,957 votes cast while 92,055 did not vote.
From the diaspora, Nakuru county, Mt Kenya community boasts of 91.9 percent of the total population which , 1,967,128 which accounts for four percent of the national population with a registered voters of 984,195 and a voter turnout of 67 percent. This translates to 659,410 votes casted while 324,785 did not vote.
In Nairobi county, the Mt Kenya population stands at 22 percent of the total population which comes to 1,005,220 and accounts for two percent of the national population, with a registered voters of 582,583 and a voter turnout of 65 percent. This translates to 378,679 votes cast while 203,904 did not vote.
The Kamba community its made up of three counties namely Machakos, Makueni and Kitui with a national population of ,3,346,772 which accounts for seven percent of the national population and a registered voter of 1,699,734, a voter turn out of 61 percent, which accounts for 8 percent of the national registration with a vote power of 10.2 percent.
In Makeni county, with a population of 987,653 which accounts for two percent of the national population with a registered voters of 479,401 and voter turn out of 61 percent accounting for 292,434 votes cast while 186,967 did not vote.
In Machakos County with a population of 1,422,952 which accounts for three percent of the national population with registered voter of 687,555 and voter turnout of 60 percent. This translates to 412,533 votes cast while 275,022 did not vote
In Kitui county with a population of 1,136,187 of the national population which accounts for the national population with registered vote of 532,578 and voter turnout at 62 percent. This translates to 330,198 votes cast while 202,380 did not vote.
From the above data, the presidential contest is likely to be intriguing and grueling in nature, more realignments are likely to be witnessed as we head to the elections.
