By Anderson Ojwang
President William Ruto is staring at the late Raila Amolo Odinga’s political monster, which is fast turning into a nightmare. The exit plan.
Despite having successfully nestled into his wrap Raila’s diplomatic wing after the Friday confirmation of Dr Oburu Oginga as the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader with his allies Governor Gladys Wanga as the National Chairperson, Governor Simba Arati and his Mombasa counterpart Abdulsamad Nassir as the deputy party leaders, Ruto now faces the real test.
Raila, a shrewd politician, developed entry and exit plans and successfully planted his allies, remotely controlled each faction, allowed them to execute his master plan, and when their interests clashed, he mediated and allowed the plot to flow seamlessly.
According to his legal advisor Paul Mwangi, who has revealed that the current contest in ODM was actually Raila’s factions fighting one another.
“What we are having today are actually fights between the two Raila Odinga’s factions. The diplomatic political faction against the militant faction,” he said.
Mwangi said both factions are legitimate and were Raila’s important vehicles in his political course.
“There are questions that now arise over legitimacy. Who are the legitimate Raila who was? They are all legitimate because Raila was a complex political character. All the factions represent something he did. The militant side also used to work for Raila as an exit strategy. Raila would not go into anything without an exit strategy. So even when he began working with President Ruto he had an exit strategy.”
He said the militant wing which has morphed into Linda Mwananchi of Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Siaya Governor James Orengo was indeed his exit strategy.
“The exit strategy was Sifuna’s side and if things did not work well with the cooperation side, he was going to turn to his militant side to lead his next political agenda,” he said.
This revelation captures Winnie Odinga’s assertion that the arrangement was so complex and needed new people to guide it.
Raila’s game plan and why Winnie remains the constant
During the last November ODM celebrations in Mombasa, Winnie called for a National Delegates Conference (NDC) to choose a new team to manage the broad-based arrangement with President William Ruto.
“There is something I wanted to tell you. When it came to the matter of broad-based government, the people of ODM entrusted one person with the management of that relationship. That person was Baba Raila Amolo Odinga. That relationship is complicated and therefore we are looking and we are wondering, those who are taking upon themselves to manage it now, are they capable of managing that relationship? I don’t think that is the question for me to answer. That is the question for the people of ODM to answer. That is why, party leader, why I am requesting, we need to go back to the people and have an NDC to see who the people want to pick to manage that same relationship,” she said.
Raila left us in broad-based government
The pro-broad-based arrangement have maintained that Raila left them in the arrangement and they are not going anywhere.
That is why Oburu has maintained that he was the brain behind the broad-based government and that he chaired all the meetings. He opened the lid of the can by declaring that he has been the one chairing all the broad-based meetings between Raila and Ruto, which probably makes him the brainchild and the chief negotiator in the arrangement.
“Those who are saying Oburu does not talk are talking nonsense. In this broad-based arrangement, I want to assure those who are saying that it was only Raila who could handle it and that Oburu does not know anything about it. I want to tell them that all the meetings of the broad-based arrangements with Ruto, the chairman has been Oburu Odinga before you here today,” he said.
Dr Oburu revealed that the meeting which culminated into the appointment of ODM experts into President Ruto’s cabinet was chaired by him. He negotiated for the cabinet slots and the 14 permanent secretaries slots.
The Militant Wing
The late Raila often came to the defense of Sifuna and Orengo whenever they came under barrage of attacks from the diplomatic wing.
Interestingly, Raila tasked Sifuna, a member of the militant wing, to write the 10-point agenda that was signed by Ruto and Raila. It gave the roadmap of the working relationship between UDA and ODM. This Raila pulled another card on Ruto and the diplomatic wing and ensured his exit plan went uninterrupted.
In his last meeting, Raila left the legislators and party officials with a powerful question: “Who told you that ODM will not have a presidential candidate?” which has become the bone of contention.
This powerful statement has divided ODM right in the middle, with Dr Oburu declaring that ODM will not present a presidential candidate and will support President Ruto, while Sifuna and Orengo insist that ODM must present a presidential candidate as per Raila’s last wish.
Suba South MP Caroli Omondi said Raila told them not to propagate the two-term agenda.
“Raila told us not to say two-term. And if any MP wants to contradict that, let them try and we will tell them where they were told. Only Alego MP Sam Atandi raised his hand as the chairman and member of budget committee and asked Raila to allow him sometimes to say two-term. Baba’s instructions were that only Mbadi and Wandayi should say two-term, the rest were a no,” he said.
The nightmare
President Ruto’s nightmare is the Linda Mwananchi faction which seems to be gaining traction and redefining the political landscape of the country.
The team is enjoying the support of the youthful and disenfranchised Kenyans as they speak their language.
This is the team which is likely to determine the presidential election and they seem to have stolen the soul of Raila.
For Ruto, this is where the contest lies. Raila’s exit plan, which has come back to haunt him.
