By Anderson Ojwang
The dust over the byelection has finally settled. The celebrations are dying, and it is time to take stock. Winners and losers. The gaps and loopholes in the byelection.
President William Ruto’s Broad Based Alliance emerged as the winner of all the six parliamentary and a senatorial by-election, humbling the United Opposition.
The Broad Based Alliance humbled the Kalonzo Musyoka team in the byelection to secure the bargaining rights ahead of the 2027 General Election, but Ruto’s team faltered and fumbled heavily in the ward by-elections.
If anything, the United Opposition earned a sweet victory and left a powerful statement to Ruto on who is with the people and revealed the gaping loopholes the President’s team failed to read in the contest.
The slim victory in Malava and Mbeere North after heavy investment and high-voltage campaigns by the President’s lieutenants failed to replicate the same machinery in Kubuchai–Chwele Ward in Bungoma, Kisa East in Kakamega, Ekerenyo and Nyansiongo Wards in Nyamira, Kariobangi North in Nairobi, Narok Town in Narok County, and Mumbuni North in Machakos.
The bullish President, who spoke during the launch of the Rironi–Mau Summit Road, celebrated the victory of the seven parliamentary seats by candidates aligned with the Broad Based Government, terming it as confidence in his administration by the voters.
Ruto dismissed the United Opposition as lacking a substantive agenda, spreading politics of hate and personal attacks, and failing to read the mood of the country.
“Nyinyi watu wa chuki, watu wa ukabila, nyinyi ambao mnaendesha sijui wantam, Kasongo na must-go. Hiyo si sera, tafuteni sera. Na niliwaambia wasipotafuta sera watachelewa” (You people of hate, tribalism, you drivers of one-term narrative. That is not a manifesto; look for an agenda. I told you if you don’t have an agenda you will lose), he said.
Ruto exuded confidence in winning the 2027 General Election, terming the opposition as clueless with no agenda for the electorate.
“Nishawaambia majamaa, wakiendelea na hii, tutawazamisha asubuhi na mapema” (I have told these people if they continue this way, we will defeat them early in the morning), he said.
UDA, the ruling party, emerged victorious in four constituencies during the by-elections: in Mbeere North where Leo Wamuthende won, in Malava where David Ndakwa emerged victorious, and in Banisa where Ahmed Hassan won. In the Baringo senatorial election, Kiprono Chemitei clinched the seat.
The Broad Based partner, the Orange Democratic Movement, won in its strongholds of Nyanza and the coastal region, with Boyd Were winning Kasipul, Moses Omondi riding to victory in Ugunja, and Harrison Kombe winning Magarini.
But Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, in his argument, was more guarded, saying the by-elections were mostly tainted by legalities and election offences.
“Any win cannot be a win, which you can clearly claim made the threshold as laid out in our Constitution. I expect legal challenges going forward with respect to these elections.
It was very sad to see MP Kaluma Opondo attacked and several MPs chased away and attacked in various polling stations. People’s properties were destroyed and the institutions charged with maintaining law and order, and IEBC must come out and take action,” he said.
Omondi said each of the by-elections should be looked at and determined individually to understand their true implication in the future political dispensation.
“Each election has to be looked at individually. Each election presents different implications. Overall, if you look at all the by-elections, in terms of the United Opposition and the Broad Based Government, there was a contest.
The United Opposition is demonstrating they can stand up to the pressure of the government in all these byelections, which is quite significant,” he argued.
He said the ward by-elections candidly showed how the regions are likely to vote in the 2027 elections and the direction they have taken.
“If you look at the ward by-election in Kisii, they will give you a direction as to what the Kisii nation is thinking and to what direction they are likely to go.
The same applies to the ones in Western Kenya, and for the government, even if they won — and they won narrowly — the resources deployed have been massive.
It is not about who has won but the direction they are taking you. What is beginning to emerge is that there is a very strong opposition to the government in Western Kenya.
You can see that from the ward by-elections and the constituency of Malava. It is a close race,” he said.
He said the General Election will present a different playing ground and will be different from the byelections.
“In 2027, there will be 1,450 ward elections, 290 parliamentary elections and 47 counties. It will not be what we are seeing today.
If you look at each byelection individually and how they will affect a political party or a formation, then you will understand the significance of the byelections.
It shows you that in Mt Kenya, the government is still present in the case of Mbeere North, but it is under serious onslaught.
Winning byelections doesn’t mean you will win the General Election,” he said.
For President Ruto, he needs to go back to the drawing board and seal the ward loopholes which may be an impediment; while for the opposition, they need to invest heavily in the wards, because that is where the votes are.
