By Anderson Ojwang
President William Ruto may be forced back to the drawing board and change tact in his pursuit of the 2.1 million Luo Nyanza votes.
President Ruto is banking on the Nyanza votes to jumpstart his 2027 re-election and hopes that, after the formation of the broad-based government with the late Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Amolo Odinga, he will have the Luo votes in his basket.
That is why President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) mandated him to begin pre-election coalition negotiations with ODM.
Similarly, ODM, under the leadership of Dr. Oburu Oginga, was mandated to begin a pre-election coalition pact with various political formations in the country and has declared that they will first engage with UDA in the talks.
But the team under Linda Ground has walked into serious political roadblocks that threaten to puncture its journey to a pre-election coalition pact with President Ruto.
What appeared to be a simple political deal between President Ruto and ODM party leader Dr. Oburu is fast turning into a political anthill with the emergence of the Linda Mwananchi faction led by Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Vihiga Senator Geoffrey Osotsi, Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, among others.
Oburu recently convened the party’s National Governing Council (NGC), which sacked Sifuna and replaced him with Busia Woman Representative Catherine Omanyo.
But Sifuna received a reprieve after the Political Parties Tribunal halted the sacking and gave him relief, leading to a fallout in the party.
Punctured and Wobbling
The Linda Ground wobbles and looks punctured after three successful rallies by the Linda Mwananchi faction in Busia, Kitengela, and Kakamega.
The parallel rallies in Kitengela against Tononoka in Mombasa and Kakamega against Siaya have left Oburu’s faction struggling, while Sifuna’s faction has enjoyed huge, organic, and electric crowds.
Oburu said they will not allow people to pull them back after the party mandated him to embark on negotiations with President Ruto’s UDA.
“I have made my shoes and I have started to walk, so I cannot fall. I want to tell you Raila left us in a broad-based arrangement. I have been mandated by the party to negotiate with President Ruto. I am soon forming a strong team from ODM to lead the negotiations.
We are not going to allow people to pull us backward. Things will not fall apart,” he said.
But they are already being pulled back by the Linda Mwananchi faction, which enjoys huge support from the masses and party members.
That is why Babu said the Kitengela meeting marked an important moment in the party and defined the two factions.
“Today they have the party, but we have the party members. When they go to State House, do they tell you? They go alone. They are trying to threaten us, but they cannot manage us,” he said.
Orengo capped it by saying that the genuine ODM members were in Kitengela and that those in Mombasa should refund President Ruto his money.
“Watu wa ODM ambao wako Mombasa warudishie Ruto pesa zake. (Those ODM members in Mombasa should refund Ruto his money.) ODM members and leaders are here in Kitengela,” he said.
After the parallel rallies in Tononoka and Kitengela, the ground in Nyanza started to shift, and the first casualty was ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, who was booed and heckled in Ahero town in Kisumu County and Kendu Bay town in Homa Bay.
The crowd trouble did not stop with Wanga but extended to Siaya during the Linda Ground rally, which was interrupted and left several vehicles destroyed.
The rebelling ground is fast rendering Oburu’s team vulnerable, which could undermine the value of the coalition pact.
The Odinga Family Factor
The division in the Odinga family has sent mixed signals and opened a leadership vacuum not only in the party but also in the community. Raila’s grip and dominance in Luo politics is fast fading, opening the community to new leaders to occupy the vacuum.
The fallout between Dr. Oburu and his younger sister, Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga, and his niece, Raila’s younger daughter Winnie Odinga, has complicated matters.
Both Ruth and Winnie have shown solidarity with Sifuna over Dr. Oburu, swaying the masses toward the Linda Mwananchi faction.
Winnie was against her uncle driving the negotiations, terming them complex and requiring a new team, but Oburu dismissed her, saying he was the brain behind the broad-based government.
These differences and political realignments could have forced Dr. Oburu to hold a meeting with the County Assembly of Siaya to prepare for his own homecoming.
Siaya Speaker George Okode said the meeting was aimed at showing the public that the people of Siaya support Oburu’s appointment as party leader.
“We want to show the world that the people of Siaya are happy with his appointment and that the County Assembly of Siaya has agreed to work with him,” he said.
Wanga recently said Dr. Oburu does not enjoy the respect and fear that Raila had within the party, including from Sifuna and others.
The Faces Behind President Ruto’s Drive
The faces behind the Linda Ground faction of ODM are currently reeling from strong opposition in their political backyards, and leading President Ruto’s campaign in Nyanza may backfire.
In Homa Bay County, for instance, Wanga is facing a strong onslaught from her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, who enjoys huge support from the area.
In Suba South, a rematch between Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi and Azimio Secretary General Caroli Omondi is in the offing.
In Nyanza, the Babu Owino wave is fast gripping the region and is likely to render Oburu’s faction irrelevant.
Similarly, his lead chargers in the Nyanza UDA brigades have little appeal to the electorate and may not meaningfully help in his political quest.
That is why President Ruto may be forced to go directly to the electorate, relying on the weight of his development record to seek their votes.
