By Anderson Ojwang
Kenya is walking into a new season. A season of betrayal, defections and realignments. With only 11 months to the general elections, mass defections, betrayals and realignment are in the offing.
Already signs of betrayals and defections are in the air, and it is only a matter of time before the new season opens its doors.
Kenyans will soon be watching movement from one coalition to another, defections from one party to another, and major political realignment and fallouts.
Players and casualties
In this season, the main players and casualties will include President William Ruto, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, Dr Fred Matiang’i, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta, among others.
In the political parties, the situation will involve UDA, DCP, ODM, Wiper, the yet-to-be-registered Linda Mwananchi party, and Jubilee Party.
The fringe political parties may this time be swept by the strong political wave and could remain peripheral and in the briefcases.
The regions that will be the focal point in the 2027 general elections will rotate between Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley and Mt Kenya. These regions are where betrayals, defections and coalitions will unfold.
The season signal
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Dr Oburu Oginga, at the Broad-Based Government coalition retreat in Naivasha, lightly mentioned the coming pregnant season in passing.
Oburu, in one of his powerful speeches, said there was no time for fence-sitting but a declaration of political position in the emerging climate.
“If you are with us, just say you are with us. I must urge: let us be straightforward. If you have any issue that you want to raise, please raise it honestly, but do not be a fence-sitter,” he said.
Using a Luo saying to aptly capture the soon-to-unfold political scenario in the country, Oburu said it was time to make a political declaration and state whether one supports the coalition or not.
“In Luo, we say: if you face the lake, face it squarely. Because if you face it squarely, it is a blessing. If you turn your back to it, it is a blessing. And if you are neither looking at it nor turning your back to it, it is a curse,” he said.
Oburu said the time for fence-sitting was over and that the political class must declare their stand ahead of the 2027 general election.
“Don’t sit on the fence; you must decide where you are because we want to know who is with us and who is not with us,” he said.
Dr Oburu said it was time to determine true membership of the coalition to allow them to move forward to the election.
“If you are not with us, then you are not our member. If you are with us, you are our member. It is important we know this,” he said.
Mass exodus
Already, party leader of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), Rigathi Gachagua, had claimed that a section of government officers in President William Ruto’s administration had contacted him to join the party.
Gachagua had also claimed of a mass exodus from United Democratic Alliance (UDA) MPs from Mt Kenya to his party and that they have been contacting him.
“I have been receiving phone calls from government officers who want to defect to DCP. I have told them to come in broad daylight. We are going to witness a mass exodus,” he said.
Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, in a post, alluded to a mass exodus from UDA to DCP in a strategic move.
“Today, 12th August 2026, marks a new phase in the 2027 politics. For the next 90 days, the government will release elected leaders in Mt Kenya region to ‘defect’ to DCP. And they are not going there with empty pockets. With their handsome exit bonus, winning DCP nominations will not be a big deal. Winning the war is more important than winning the battle. Mambo ni Mwecheche. Hizo bags ziko na something more than Alele Mtoto,” he wrote.
A must-win election
President Ruto said next year’s general election is a must-win election and that the broad-based coalition cannot afford to lose to the opposition.
“For your information, this word I must tell you: the next election we must win by God’s grace. Not for your sake, but for the sake of Kenya. Because the alternative is difficult to fathom. We have no choice, friends. As you sit here, you have no choice, because the alternative – I shudder – the group is too dangerous for Kenya. I want to ask you with all humility that we must bear with one another,” he said.
Framework
Oburu said they have those who have been working on policies and the power-sharing formula and have made enough progress to send a warning to the opposition of their preparedness for a duel.
“We are going to win the next election by a landslide. We have what it takes,” he said.
Ruto said: “We are going into an election. We are going to the people of Kenya to tell them what we have done with the mandate they gave us.”
Ruto said his administration has discharged its responsibility and that they were seeking a new mandate going into the future.
