By Billy Mijungu
In recent times, save for Odm and UDA, political parties in Kenya have increasingly strengthened themselves along regional lines. The once-dominant national parties or ruling formations are fading at an astonishing speed. This should remind us that as a country of more than fifty four ethnic communities, we were always bound to negotiate politics as a Nation of Nations. We live in that reality today.
If the current by elections are anything to go by, regional negotiation is now the centre of political competition. What lies ahead is the emergence of even stronger regional political alternatives. Mount Kenya has Jubilee and DP, Nyanza has MDG, UPA and Odm, Western has Ford Kenya and DAP, North Eastern has UDM, Rift Valley hosts KANU, CCM Mashinani and UDA, the Coast has PAA and CPP, while Eastern has Wiper, CCM Maendeleo and MCCP. The pattern is visible and consistent. In a few years, Kenya will be negotiated politically through regional parties rather than national vehicles.
In the ongoing by elections, and looking ahead to the 2027 General Election, there will be little or no reflection of a truly national party. Odm and to some extent UDA remain the only exceptions, but even they are increasingly defined by their strong regional bases. UDA will dominate Rift Valley, Jubilee and DP will take Mount Kenya seats, Odm is set to win Coast, Nyanza and Nairobi, DAP is poised to secure Western, while Wiper will consolidate influence in Eastern. This is the new political architecture.
As we await election results, the country must accept that there will never again be a winner takes it all outcome in Kenyan politics. This reality strengthens the argument that the IEBC should decentralise more robustly, recognising that regional tallies are what will shape national negotiations, not the other way around.
These emerging political movements naturally align with a parliamentary system of governance where parties, coalitions and negotiated majorities matter. Such a system would enhance accountability within Parliament and provide clearer political responsibility. Kenya needs a President elected from the majority coalition in Parliament, supported by a Deputy President, a Prime Minister with two deputies and a structured cabinet. That is the direction the country must move toward, and it will require constitutional reform to effect.
