By odiwuor Alala
Moses Kuria’s political commentary often divides opinion, but his recent assertion that former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua might still be operating under an unwritten arrangement with President William Ruto is beginning to look less like a wild conspiracy and more like an astute reading of the game.
Look at the political landscape. How else do you explain a politician who claims to lead the charge against the current administration, yet spends virtually all his energy alienating potential allies, issuing reckless broadsides, and fracturing the very coalition required to mount a serious challenge in 2027?
Instead of building bridges, Gachagua has transformed himself into the opposition’s biggest strategic liability. His political behaviour reads like a masterclass in self-sabotage—or, if Kuria is right, a calculated strategy to ensure the opposition remains hopelessly divided.
The Cynicism of Rebranding
The most glaring absurdity in Gachagua’s post-deputy presidency persona is his sudden, opportunistic invoking of Raila Amolo Odinga.
For years, Gachagua built his entire political identity on fierce anti-Raila rhetoric. He was the chief architect of the “shareholder” doctrine—a narrative explicitly designed to lock out opposition strongholds from state resources and vilify the Luo community’s historical struggle for democratic inclusion. To watch him now drop Baba’s name in a bid to manufacture legitimacy is not just political opportunism; it is an insult to the intelligence of the electorate.
You cannot spend years treating an entire region as political persona non grata and then expect them to rally behind your grievances the moment you fall out of favour with the state.
The Unbridgeable Rift with Nyanza
If Gachagua believes his anti-Ruto posturing will earn him a sympathetic ear in Nyanza, he has miscalculated catastrophically.
The Luo nation has a long, documented memory. The region’s political consciousness is built on a legacy of principle, sacrifice, and ideological clarity. It will not be mobilised by a brand of politics rooted purely in personal bitterness and ethnic entitlement.
In fact, Gachagua’s lingering hostility toward anyone with a Luo name makes him radioactive in the region. For any Luo leader with genuine political ambitions, aligning with Gachagua is not a strategic gamble—it is outright political suicide. You cannot lead a national movement while harbouring visible disdain for a major pillar of the nation’s political identity.
When the time comes to vote, Nyanza’s stance will be unmistakable. The electorate will not merely be voting against the economic policies of the current administration; they will be actively voting against the divisive, tribal bigotry that Gachagua represents.
The Opposition’s Ultimate Dilemma
Whether Gachagua is operating under a secret deal with Ruto or simply consumed by his own unchecked ambitions, the net outcome is identical: President Ruto wins.
A scattered, infighting opposition that allows itself to be dragged down by Gachagua’s baggage cannot offer a credible alternative to the nation. Until the anti-government forces recognise that Gachagua’s brand of politics is an insurmountable obstacle to national unity, they will remain trapped in a game where the house always wins.
