Will Musalia fulfill the Luhya prophesy of the presidency through the Lake?

By Anderson Ojwang

The Luhya community politics have been influenced greatly by a religious sect Dini Ya Msambwa founded by prophet Elijah Masinde.

Masinde has remained a cog in Luhya politics through his prophecies and actions during colonial times, which continue to shape the community’s political destination.

In the 1940s and 1950s, the Bukusu resisted the British under the leadership of Masinde, after the prophet demanded the return of their lands

In 1944, Masinde took on the colonialists by attacking a chief in Kimilili; he was jailed on February 14 after he refused to execute a bond of Sh500 to keep the peace after being found guilty of assault.

Consequently, in 1955, DC C J Denton warned that Elijah posed a greater threat to law and order than Mau, which had started a rebellion in central Kenya. 

On the Luhya community’s ascension to the presidency, Masinde prophesied that the community leadership would come through Lake Victoria.

Historically, Ford-K, the dominant party in Bungoma County was founded by the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga who later passed the baton to the late Vice President Wamalwa Kijana, 

Today, Ford K is viewed as a Luhya party, with National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula leading it. For Wetangula, the Jaramogi’s party has heralded him to various political destinations in the country.

With the current shifting political dynamic, the falling out in the ruling party between President William Ruto and his deputy Regathi Cachagua, the formation of a broad-based government, and the regrouping of original Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)  pentagon luminaries, the Luhya community could be looking at Nyanza to fulfill the dream,

Despite cabinet secretary Mr. Musalia Mudavadi hailing from the Luhya community, his political destiny could lie in the Luo community.

The Luhya community is the second largest community in Kenya with a population of 6,824,482 according to a 2019 report and is composed of twenty-one clans.

The twenty-one clans are Bukusu), Idakho, Isukha, Kabras, Khayo, Kisa, Marachi, Maragoli, Marama, Aba-Nyala, Aba-Nyole, –Samia.  -Tiriki, Abatsotso, Wanga, and Batura and the Abasiaya, with the Bukusu and Maragoli being more politically prominent, dominant, and bitter rivals.

Western Kenya’s political landscape has been and will continue to be dominated and determined by the two rival clans namely the Bukusu and Maragoli.

The Bukusu community has produced top politicians in the late Masinde Muliro, the late Vice President Wamalwa Kijana, and Wetangula among others.

But for the Maragoli clan, the political baton has remained in the hand of the late Moses Mudamba Mudavadi’s lineage for the last 25 years to date.

After Moses’ death, Musalia’s political stars shone brighter, and he was thought to be one of the possible successors of then President the late Daniel Moi.

But with Moi anointing Uhuru Kenyatta as the heir apparent, a fallout in Kanu emerged with Musalia and other top party officials defecting to the opposition.

 But Musalia would later make a political summersault by defecting back to Kanu and was subsequently appointed the vice president.

The political summersault cost him the Sabatia parliamentary, and he consequently, declined the parliamentary nomination and was therefore confined to a political obituary.

But Musalia’s political reincarnation into the limelight began in 2004 following the death of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) chairperson, Mr. Joab Omino, which left the seat of Kisumu Town West vacant.

A clamor emerged in Kisumu, with residents and political leaders led by then LDP Nyanza spokesperson Mzee Odungi Randa asking Musalia to contest the vacant seat.

Randa, who is the current chairperson of the Luo Council of Elders believed Musalia was a future presidential material who should never be left to waste out in the political oblivion.

Musalia politely declined the gesture, but it marked his political rebirth as he became a prominent figure in the 2005 constitutional referendum.

Former Nyakach MP Pollyns Ochieng Daima says during the prayer service for the victims of the constitutional referendum in Kisumu, LDP leader Raila Odinga introduced Musalia at Kisumu’s Moi Stadium to the public where he received a rousing welcome.

Raila was the driving face behind the anti-draft constitution and was leading the orange wing against the Banana of President Mwai Kibaki.

Raila and his team later formed the Orange party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM.

Daima says after the prayer service in Kisumu, Raila, and the team went for a campaign in the Western region where Musalia was given the onus of leading the campaign.

“Musalia quickly rose to the rank and became one of the luminaries of ODM, the leader of the No campaign in Western Kenya, and subsequently Raila’s running mate in the 2007 presidential elections.

Daima says Musalia is more acceptable in Nyanza than Western Kenya his birthplace and has a huge support base and could easily pass as Raila’s heir apparent in the region.

He says the rivalry between Bukusu and Maragoli usually negates Musalia’s grasp of the vote-rich community, and this has undermined his presidential ambition.

In the 2013 Presidential elections, Raila beat Mudavadi in all the counties in Western Kenya save for only his home county of Vihiga where he won by more than 5,000 votes.

Political analyst Dr Obondi Otieno says the future of Musalia’s political destiny rests in Nyanza, a people who are united and follow a common political path as a bloc.

“he is our close neighbor, in law, diplomatic, and has been with us in Pentagon and Cord and he is not abrasive. Currently, it is easier to sell Musalia’s candidature in Luo than any other candidate from outside the community,’ he says.

Dr Otieno says the decision by Musalia to lead Raila’s African Union (AU) chair bid has endeared him more to the community.

“Nyanza will one day propel Musalia to the presidency. As things stand, he is more likely to lead the country one day and Nyanza will be his stronghold,” he says.