By Billy Mijungu
The air is thick with political realignments. The echoes of 2002 ring so vividly in 2024, like a script being dusted off from an old political library, re-written with a modern font but maintaining the same plot. As Kenya inches closer to 2027, the grandmasters are once again at the chessboard, moving pieces with a tactical precision reminiscent of that historic year when an old order was toppled and a new dawn ushered in.
The National Alliance of Kenya (NAK), the prelude to the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), was an unlikely pact. Charity Ngilu, Mwai Kibaki, and Wamalwa Kijana came together to form a formidable force against the iron grip of KANU. Meanwhile, Raila Odinga, ever the master strategist, was still within Daniel arap Moi’s grip, calculating his moves. At the periphery, the indomitable Simeon Nyachae charted his lone course, refusing to be caught up in the grand alliances but still wielding considerable influence.
And here we are today, staring at a mirror image of history. The NAK of yesteryears finds its reflection in the trio of Rigathi Gachagua, Eugene Wamalwa, and Kalonzo Musyoka. They stand as the emerging force against the Ruto establishment, just as Kibaki and his allies stood against Moi two decades ago. Meanwhile, Raila Odinga finds himself again within the ruling fold, this time cooperating with William Ruto under the guise of the Broad-Based Government, much like his dalliance with Moi before the 2002 fallout. Musalia Mudavadi, ever the constant, remains in the same ambiguous position, playing both sides with the kind of loyalty that seems more like a curse than a virtue.
But the real question is, how does this end? If history is indeed repeating itself, then Raila is faced with the same dilemma he faced in 2002: does he stick with the ruling party, or does he, in a moment of political epiphany, bolt to join the opposition? In 2002, he famously walked out on Moi and delivered the now-iconic “Kibaki Tosha” endorsement, sealing KANU’s fate. Will he once again shift gears and side with Kalonzo and company, or will he remain with Ruto to cement his legacy as a statesman beyond opposition politics?
And what of the new Nyachae, Fred Matiang’i? Just like the former Ford-People leader, he stands outside the mainstream coalitions, possibly waiting for his moment to strike. A man with a formidable track record, he possesses the clout and the defiance that could shake up the delicate formations being crafted in Nairobi’s smoky backrooms.
Kenyan politics has always been cyclical, and the players, no matter how they attempt to rewrite the narrative, always find themselves walking a path their predecessors trod. The characters may be different, but the storyline remains eerily familiar. The only question left is: who will play the final card?
As the country inches toward 2027, the suspense thickens, the stakes rise, and the political stage awaits its grand performance. Will this be a perfect repeat of 2002, or will history, for once, deviate from its familiar rhythm? One thing is however too constant. Raila Odinga Remains the King Maker
