By Billy Mijungu
Stay out of the 2027 contest if you do not have significant influence around IEBC, street power and money. These remain the true tactics of political delivery in Kenya. There is also nothing like the so called Gen Z wave when it comes to the ballot. The hype without a grounded voting bloc means very little. Old habits die hard and Kenyan voters have not changed despite the noise on social platforms.
For years, the idea that development determines Kenyan politics has been repeated, but the truth is evident in every election. Development has very little weight. What matters is the heat of the political moment and who has the resources to fuel it. It is time Kenyans recalibrate their expectations and confront the reality that money still runs our elections.
Western Kenya has now emerged as the official battle ground region. It is a potent place for a future Deputy President or even a Premier, given the evolving conversation around governance structures. The region’s political weight has grown and it will shape alliances for the next phase of national politics.
The UDA wins in the by elections send a clear message to ODM within the broad based arrangement. William Ruto now has more options to challenge the mountain bloc and potentially take it. ODM cannot afford arrogance because the results point to a party that has been tamed. Even with shifting alliances, the most stable conclusion is that Kithure Kindiki is likely to remain the Deputy Presidential running mate for William Ruto. His loyalty and quiet competence have positioned him well within the presidential circle.
Another important observation is that UDA has widened its reach. The party has strengthened its presence in North Eastern and Turkana, regions that were previously unpredictable. This expansion means that ODMs continued stay in the broad based arrangement may give UDA more room to penetrate its traditional constituencies such as Coast, Western, North Eastern and the North Rift. If ODM is not careful, it may lose more ground than it gains.
Still, ODM retains the unique ability to shift the race for William Ruto if it reorganizes with clarity and strategy. DCP has also made visible inroads in Maasai land and Western Kenya, adding a new dynamic to the contest. When all is said and done, UDA, despite internal let downs and public concerns, has performed far beyond what many anticipated.
