By Anderson Ojwang
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) may have won the just-concluded three parliamentary by-elections in its strongholds of Nyanza and the Coastal region, but the party could be walking into a slumber slide with emerging worrying statistics and a potent growing rebellion.
The statistics in the Ugunja and Kasipul by-election victories are so telling and worrying for the party ahead of the 2027 general elections that they cast aspersions on ODM’s future.
Similarly, the loss of Kariobangi North ward by-election to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s party DCP, and the failure to field candidates in Kakamega and Nyamira counties in the just-concluded by-elections—regions that were the late Raila Odinga’s strongholds—is baffling.
Low voter turnout — or is it a potent protest against the party?
In the 2022 presidential election, President William Ruto defeated Raila by only 200,000 votes to be declared the fifth president of Kenya. Raila got 6,942,980 against Ruto’s 7,176,141.
Siaya County alone, with a total of 533,595 registered voters, gave Raila 371,092 against Ruto’s 4,320, with 376,354 having voted.
Siaya alone, with 157,241 voters who elected not to vote, could have forced a rerun.
In Kisumu County, with 606,754 registered voters, Raila got 419,997 against Ruto’s 10,011. A total of 431,005 votes were cast, while 175,749 did not vote.
In Migori County, with 469,019 registered voters, Raila got 294,136 votes against Ruto’s 52,525, accounting for 347,773 votes cast, while 121,246 did not vote.
Homa Bay County had 551,071 registered voters, with Raila getting 399,784 votes against Ruto’s 3,497, while a total of 404,112 votes were cast. 146,959 did not vote.
From the above statistics, the four counties had a total of 2,095,863 registered voters, of which 601,195 did not vote—accounting for 28.7 percent.
The question, therefore: Why has there been a significant decline in voters during general elections in the region? Could it be a silent rebellion?
The answer could easily be derived from the just-concluded Ugunja and Kasipul by-elections.
The Ugunja and Kasipul by-elections opened a can of worms on what could have been affecting ODM for ages—flawed and manipulated party primaries.
In Ugunja and Kasipul, there were allegations of flawed nominations, which later reared their ugly head in the by-elections.
For instance, in Ugunja, with 60,114 registered voters, only 15,017 voted, translating to 24.9 percent turnout, while 45,097 voters did not turn out. A powerful statement.
The ODM candidate won with 9,447 votes. In the ODM primaries, the top three candidates shared 9,451 votes, with Moses winning with 5,326. Interestingly, Moses won the by-election with 9,447—a drop of 11 votes from the total garnered by the top three contenders in the party primary—while 5,570 electors voted against the party.
In the Kasipul ODM nomination, a total of 22,727 party members participated in the exercise, which was won by Boyd Were after getting 22,727 votes.
Were won the by-election by garnering 16,819 votes, meaning that along the way the party lost 5,908 loyal members, accounting for 26 percent of those who participated in the nomination. This statistic is extremely telling and worrying.
The voter turnout was 36 percent, accounting for 31,077 voters from the 67,017 registered voters in the constituency.
The joint opposition garnered 14,258 votes, translating to 45.9 percent, against ODM’s 16,819, which translates to 54.1 percent. A worrying trend in the absence of Raila in the 2027 general elections.
The reality remains that a majority of voters did not turn up in the last general election after the party issued direct tickets and denied several aspirants the opportunity to contest. The silent protest cost Raila the presidency.
Recently, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino claimed that ODM would not give him the party ticket to contest for the Nairobi gubernatorial race and preferred the incumbent Johnson Sakaja over him.
This forced the new party leader, Dr. Oburu Odinga, to summon and reassure him that the party would conduct a free and fair election.
But old habits die hard, and with 2027 approaching, the party may revert to old habits and issue direct tickets or manipulate the nomination exercise. Time will tell, as this is likely to lead to protest and rebellion.
Waning influence in Luhya and Kisii counties
Raila turned Luhya and Kisii counties into his strongholds, and ODM was the party of choice. But the recent by-elections and failure to field candidates in parliamentary and civic by-elections left the party colorless in the region.
In Kisii County, Deputy Party Leader of Jubilee Dr. Fred Matiang’i has rattled the vote bloc and threatens ODM’s existence in the region.
UPA, a party associated with him, won the Ekerenyo ward through Jeremiah Ongaro, while Jackson Mogusu of PDP won Nyansiongo ward. The two parties are allied to Matiang’i.
In Kakamega County, ODM failed to field a candidate in Malava constituency and Kisii East ward, while in Bungoma County’s Chwele-Kabuchai ward, it also did not have a candidate.
The emergence of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya in Luhya politics is also rattling ODM and outfoxing it in the region.
Loss of Kariobangi North ward — tip of the iceberg of what awaits the party
Gachagua’s DCP won the Kariobangi North ward through David Warui, while ODM’s candidate came a distant third in what was previously known as their stronghold.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna is the Nairobi Senator, while Babu wants to be governor, and the duo enjoy massive support in the city. But they never went out of their way to aggressively campaign for the party candidate, which could have contributed to the loss.
The Oburu Odinga and Broad-Based Factor
The decision to confirm Oburu as the party leader has split the party down the middle, with some arguing that Kisumu Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o was still the party leader at the time of transition.
Winnie Odinga recently called for an NDC to elect new officials, while Babu also expressed interest in the seat.
The broad-based arrangement has also split the party, with one wing led by National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, Oburu, and Junet Mohammed supporting it, while another wing led by Siaya Governor James Orengo—including Sifuna and Babu—opposes it.
The demise of Raila leaves the party in a precarious position, and if not handled well, it may plunge into the fate that befell Ford-K, founded by Raila’s father, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.
