By Anderson Ojwang’
In an open and candid take, Murang’a Governor Irungu Kangata has come out to state that his analysis arrived at the conclusion that President William Ruto could be facing an uphill task in winning a second term.
Kangata said the realisation changed his political journey after he observed that arithmetic was not adding up for UDA and President Ruto in the 2027 general elections.
The realisation was informed by the fact that patterns and trends determine voting and results in general elections.
He said Mt Kenya, Lower Eastern, Kisii, Western, and parts of Nyanza have found a different political destination and were not reading from Ruto’s script.
According to 2022 Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) data, the Mt Kenya community accounts for 4 million votes, including those in the diaspora, while the Kamba community accounts for 1.6 million, Kisii accounts for 960,000, Luhya 2.3 million, and the Luo community 2.1 million.
“President Ruto is my close friend for several years. When he started his politics in Mt Kenya, I was the MP for Kiharu and I was able to support him,” he said.
Kangata said politics was not about friendship but mathematical, and his arithmetic was not working.
“Politics is not about friendship but mathematical. When I do my arithmetic, it is not adding up. So I have to think deeply,” he said.
The Raila-Kibaki fallout
Kangata said in the 2002 general election, the late Raila Odinga supported the late Mwai Kibaki to sail to the presidency.
But in 2005 there was a fallout between Raila and Kibaki, and the former walked away with the majority of the votes.
“In 2005, we saw Kibaki and Raila ahead of the referendum. In 2002, Kibaki was helped by Raila to become the president, and in 2007, Raila disappeared with the votes and joined in alliance with Ruto,” he said.
In 2007, Kenya witnessed disputed presidential elections, which resulted in post-election violence and subsequently a coalition government with Kibaki as President and Raila as Prime Minister.
Raila-Ruto fallout
Raila and Ruto disagreed in 2010, and the same scenario replayed, with Raila losing the 2013 presidential elections.
“In 2010, Raila and Ruto fell out. Ruto disappeared with the votes, and Raila lost the election to Jubilee candidate Uhuru Kenyatta,” he said.
Ruto-Gachagua fallout
Kangata said when he saw the fallout between Ruto and his deputy, the impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, he was alarmed by the trend and the pattern.
“When I saw Ruto and Wamunyoro fall out, I realised there was a problem here. Four million votes have been lost in this fallout,” he said.
Currently, Mt Kenya is rebelling against President Ruto, and Gachagua, Uhuru Kenyatta, and other leading leaders from the region have come together to lock out the region.
Kangata earlier in the year declared that he would not defend his seat on a UDA ticket and would seek an alternative vehicle.
Kangata, one of the top performers, won the 2022 gubernatorial elections with a total of 256,561 votes and was followed by Jamleck Kamau of the Jubilee Party with 91,154 votes, from a total registered voters of 620,929.
In the last general election, the voter turnout was 68 percent, with President Ruto securing 343,421 votes against Azimio La Umoja Presidential candidate, the late Raila Amolo Odinga’s 73,519 votes.
Kangata quoted President Ruto that the people were supreme and that it was incumbent upon him to adhere to what the people had told him.
“President Ruto has always told us that the people are supreme, and thank you for that statement. Therefore, my responsibility is to adhere to what the people have told me. And in light of that, and because I have tried my best to have these issues resolved internally, I have had a candid discussion with the President one on one, where we shared these ideas, but we did not reach what we call full convergence,” he said.
Kangata said he had conclusively decided to defend his seat on a different platform and not UDA.
“I have no doubt to say that after careful reflection, I wish to state that come 2027, I will not defend my seat on the current party ticket.”
The equation
President Ruto’s political game plan was to sna re ODM into his fold and form a pre-election coalition before the elections.
President Ruto was banking on Raila’s huge support, but his demise has undermined the equation. The formation of the Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM has left Linda Ground as a mere shackle with only party instruments and a Luo outfit.
Kangata said the UDA government’s equation was to lure ODM supporters into the fold to fill the void left by Mt Kenya’s 4 million votes.
“Some of the ODM members joined the government while others declined and saw the opportunity to look for the 4 million votes to form an alliance.”
Sifuna’s emergence
Sifuna’s sudden rise has been because of his opposition to the broad-based government and his alleged sacking by the Dr Oburu Oginga-led faction as Secretary General.
“That is where the ODM Secretary General, Sifuna, saw the vacuum and took the opportunity. The truth is Sifuna has come out when there is opportunity, and the age factor is on his side. The Luhya community is big. Which ODM leader has come to Mt Kenya and people turn up in huge numbers if it is not Sifuna? Sifuna is accepted across the board. I have put my ambition aside. Sifuna Tosha,” he said.
The odds
Kangata said President Ruto was faced by odds ranging from the Gen Z rebellion to rebellion from other regions.
“That is why when I work on my arithmetic on the side of UDA, it’s not working out. They have a problem with the Gen Z. People say there is no Gen Z; it’s just a storm. Let’s assume they are not there. But there is a problem in Mt Kenya, Kisii, Lower Eastern, Western, and even Luo land. This is the biggest problem for Kenya Kwanza,” he said.
UDA mistake
He said UDA’s mistake was attacking Gachagua while the region will not have any presidential candidate.
“No presidential candidate from Mt Kenya will be on the ballot. So attacking Wamunyoro makes no political sense,” he said.
Kangata said at the moment, Mt Kenya was looking for people to form an alliance with and wondered why the attack on Gachagua.
“We are looking for where to land, and we will come with our 4 million votes. So politics of attacking Wamunyoro doesn’t make sense and add votes,” he said.
Using the analogy of a waiter and a watchman in a hotel, he wondered why the attacks should go to Gachagua.
“I have walked into a hotel. Instead of ordering from the waiter, you ask the watchman to give you food. Ask the waiter to give you food instead of the watchman. Wamunyoro is the watchman who is not in the government,” he said.
Will arithmetic work for Ruto?
