By Anderson Ojwang
For the first time in seven decades, Luo Nyanza will be the swing vote in the 2027 presidential contest.
And the battle for the community vote has begun in earnest and has turned out to be a three-horse race. In the three-horse race are all allies of the former party leader and Azimio La Umoja 2022 presidential candidate, the late Raila Amolo Odinga.
Raila controlled and dictated the community’s politics and voting pattern with his party, the Orange Democratic Movement, for the last 20 years, maintaining its grip on the region.
And with Raila’s demise, the region has been opened to new potential suitors who have been circling for the votes and allies.
After seven decades of a uniform, one-basket voting pattern, the Luo community vote bloc currently enjoys a moment of risk spread.
The one-party and presidential voting mentality has finally lapsed and given room to an open choice of a presidential candidate and leaders to vote for at the ballot.
At the moment, it is a three-horse race for the leading presidential candidates in the search for the community’s votes.
In the race are President William Ruto, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Linda Mwananchi leader Edwin Sifuna.
In the vote hunt are President William Ruto of the broad-based alliance between ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, his former running mate, and Edwin Sifuna, his longest-serving secretary-general and the current party leader of Linda Mwananchi.
The dynamics in play
Baba left us in the broad-based alliance
The Baba-left-us-in-the-broad-based-alliance camp consists of ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga and National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, who are leading Ruto’s charge in Luo Nyanza.
Joining the ODM leadership in championing President Ruto’s agenda in Nyanza are the Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) of Ugenya MP David Ochieng, Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi, and Internal Security Permanent Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo.
This team argues that President Ruto has initiated several development projects in Nyanza and appointed the community’s sons and daughters to posts that they had never held since independence, namely the Finance and Attorney-General dockets.
They also argue that in the 2007 General Election, Ruto and the Kalenjin community overwhelmingly supported Raila, and it was time to repay the debt.
And finally, they argue that Raila died while he was in the coalition government and that it was his wish that the community remain and support Ruto’s re-election.
Junet Mohammed said,
“I am the Minority Leader in Parliament; we are in a broad-based government. We don’t want confusion. We want development from this government.
It is not time to make noise but to benefit from development. The party position on the MOU remains valid, and the Central Committee is the organ that was mandated for the MOU.
We agreed in the committee for the signing of the MOU. If you want the MOU dead, kindly bring it back to the Central Committee so that we can deliberate and declare it is dead.
We will not allow it to die. We cannot allow someone to remove us from the broad-based government through unorthodox means. Where do you want us to go to? If you are tired, you are free to leave. At this moment, we are in the broad-based government.”
The Azimio La Umoja and Raila’s Oburu birthday promise
This team consists of former Cabinet Minister Raphael Tuju, Siaya Governor James Orengo and political activist Erick Okeyo.
Orengo was recently made co-chairman of the newly founded Ukombozi Alliance headed by Kalonzo.
On 15th October 2023, at the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology grounds in Bondo, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, as the chief guest at a function, got rare backing from the Odingas.
The historic event, the 80th birthday of Dr Oburu Oginga, was a golden moment for Kalonzo to inherit Azimio La Umoja leader Raila Odinga’s vote bloc.
At the function, Oburu told the gathering that “Kalonzo had stood with us three times and at the opportune time we should also support him. He is a good person.”
Raila then warned President Ruto to stop belittling Kalonzo and accused him of trying to divide the coalition through unfounded speculations, adding that the flag bearer for the group would be announced at the opportune time.
“He is speaking about Kalonzo as if they are equals. Kalonzo is far better than him, Ruto. He wants to divide us with talk about who will run for the presidency, yet we ourselves have not announced anything. We will show him he knows nothing; we will stand with Kalonzo because he is an honest person,” he said.
Kisumu Women Representative Ruth Odinga said after Raila’s burial, “Your Excellency, I know the loss you have gone through — that was one of your best friends. The two of you really looked after Kenya. You can only be a warrior and choose a warrior you go with to war.
Why Raila Odinga used to go to war with Kalonzo Musyoka is because he knew he was a warrior he could go with to war.
And I know it is a lonely path, but do not worry. There is going to be another warrior who will come out. You will not be alone in this journey to ensure Kenya continues.”
Kalonzo then said, “We, as Wiper members, came to honour Baba. We were with him from 2013 up to his time of demise. In 2017, we called Raila Baba and referred to Kalonzo as our Baba Mdogo. Let nobody misuse Baba’s name. Mama Ida, let’s sustain Raila’s legacy with politeness,” he said.
Rebel in ODM
Sifuna will be relying on his colleague, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, and, in return, support his Nairobi gubernatorial quest.
Similarly, Sifuna hopes to cash in on his close working relationship with Raila and the Luhya community’s support for the late Enigma.
He hopes the famous prophecy of Elijah Masinde of Dini Ya Msabwa will finally come to pass: that the Luhya presidency will come from Nyanza.
How the community stands to reap
By spreading the risk, the community will not be tied to a particular presidential candidate, and whichever side wins, they will be represented.
That is why ODM and MDG should stick with Ruto, Tuju and Orengo with Kalonzo, and Babu with Sifuna. The community shall have spread the risk and remained cushioned in the emerging political matrix.
The days of tears after every General Election shall be long gone, and the community shall remain relevant in any emerging political formation.
Open race
The battle for the Luo Nyanza presidential race is an open one and up for grabs for the three main presidential candidates.
