By Valentine Omondi
Raila Odinga is no longer here, and for many politicians who built their political careers around his influence, the 2027 General Election presents a different political environment. This could be particularly significant in Nyanza and other ODM strongholds, where Raila’s popularity often played a central role in determining the political fortunes of candidates seeking elective positions.
For decades, Raila was more than an ODM leader. He was the political figure whose endorsement could unite voters behind candidates, influence electoral choices and give politicians an advantage that extended beyond their individual popularity or development records.
Some politicians appeared to enjoy electoral security largely because of their association with Raila and the ODM wave. In constituencies where the party commanded overwhelming support, securing the ODM ticket or receiving Raila’s endorsement could significantly shape a candidate’s chances, sometimes leaving little room for opponents to challenge them on individual performance.
The famous ‘Six Piece’ voting pattern illustrated this political reality. Voters were encouraged to elect ODM candidates across all six elective positions, from the presidency to the county assembly. The popular justification was often that Baba had spoken, and his supporters had little reason to question his preferred candidates.
However, with Raila gone, that political arrangement faces a new test.
Politicians can no longer take Baba’s endorsement for granted
One of the biggest questions ahead of 2027 is whether politicians who previously relied heavily on Raila’s political influence can maintain their support without his personal endorsement.
For some incumbents, the challenge could be explaining what they have achieved during their time in office rather than relying on the popularity of the party they represent.
Governors will have to account for their development records, MPs will face questions about their legislative and constituency responsibilities, while senators and MCAs will equally have to demonstrate what they have contributed to their respective counties and wards.
In the past, political loyalty sometimes overshadowed these individual assessments. A candidate could benefit from the wider popularity of ODM even when their personal record attracted questions from constituents.
That dynamic could become more complicated in the absence of the man who held considerable influence over the region’s political direction.
This does not mean ODM’s popularity will automatically disappear or that all its incumbent leaders will lose their political support. The party has structures, loyal supporters and an established political identity that existed alongside Raila’s personal influence.
However, the relationship between party loyalty and individual candidate popularity could face a different test.
Politicians who have depended on Raila’s political shadow may now have to establish their own identities, defend their records and convince voters why they deserve another term.
A new generation of voters could change the conversation
Another factor that could complicate matters for some established politicians is the emergence of a politically conscious generation of young voters, particularly Gen Z.
The 2027 General Election will give many young Kenyans an opportunity to participate in a national election for the first time. Unlike previous electoral cycles, where political personalities, party loyalty and regional mobilisation often dominated conversations, a section of this new generation has increasingly placed emphasis on accountability, integrity, employment opportunities and the actual performance of elected leaders.
The Gen Z-led protests of 2024 demonstrated a willingness among young Kenyans to question those in positions of authority, demand accountability and challenge political decisions regardless of party affiliation.
This changing political conversation could have implications for ODM politicians, particularly those whose electoral success has historically been closely associated with Raila’s popularity.
A May 2026 study on youth participation in elections found that 83 per cent of surveyed young people intended to vote in 2027. Among likely first-time voters, the figure was 75.1 per cent. The research also highlighted the importance of accountability, candidate credibility and manifesto commitments, particularly among young people in urban areas.
While these findings do not mean every young voter will approach elections in the same way, they point to an electorate that political parties cannot afford to overlook.
For politicians seeking re-election, the challenge may increasingly involve demonstrating what they have delivered rather than simply reminding voters of their party affiliation or political connections.
The question is whether leaders who previously enjoyed the comfort of Raila’s political influence can appeal to this emerging electorate on the strength of their own records.
ODM’s cooperation with Ruto’s government presents another challenge
Beyond Raila’s absence and the changing voting demographics, ODM is also entering the 2027 political season with a different political arrangement.
The party that spent years positioning itself as a major opposition force has embraced cooperation with President William Ruto’s administration through the broad-based government arrangement.
The cooperation, initially endorsed under Raila’s leadership, has continued under the party’s current leadership, with ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) moving towards a formal political coalition ahead of the 2027 General Election.
This presents a complicated political situation, particularly in traditional ODM strongholds where voters have historically associated the party with opposition politics.
For years, ODM’s political identity in Nyanza was built partly around challenging successive governments, demanding accountability and presenting itself as an alternative to the political establishment.
Working with the same government that the party previously criticised could therefore create difficult questions among some of its supporters.
Some voters may support the decision as an opportunity for national cooperation and greater inclusion in government. Others may question whether the party is abandoning the opposition role that helped establish its political identity.
The challenge becomes even more significant for individual politicians who must defend the cooperation while convincing their constituents that their interests remain adequately represented.
Without Raila’s personal political authority, the party’s leadership may have to work harder to explain this arrangement to its grassroots supporters.
It is also possible that some politicians could find themselves caught between loyalty to the party’s current political direction and the expectations of constituents who may not necessarily support cooperation with the government.
For ODM, the issue is not simply maintaining its political structures but also sustaining the confidence of voters who have supported it through different political seasons.
The political shield that came with Baba’s endorsement is changing
Ultimately, the 2027 election will provide an opportunity to examine how much of the political support enjoyed by individual leaders was attached to their own leadership and how much was derived from Raila’s influence.
The absence of Raila, the emergence of a new generation of voters and ODM’s cooperation with UDA have introduced new dynamics into the region’s political environment.
This does not necessarily signal the collapse of ODM’s traditional support. However, it raises questions about whether the party’s candidates can maintain the same level of political loyalty without the figure who held considerable influence over their electoral fortunes.
For politicians who have repeatedly relied on the ODM wave, the coming election could demand more than simply securing a party ticket. They may have to account for their time in office, explain their political decisions and demonstrate why voters should give them another opportunity.
The political shield that came with Baba’s endorsement may no longer offer the same assurance.
What remains is the individual politician, their record, their political choices and their relationship with the electorate.
With Raila no longer around to lift hands and tell Nyanza whom to vote for, how many of the region’s current political leaders can convince voters that they deserve another term on their own merit?
