By Anderson Ojwang
Could Kenya’s once most popular political party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), be limping to the shadows in the current political dispensation?
Previously, ODM was touted as the most popular and significant party in the country and enjoyed support in most parts of Kenya.
In its first electoral attempt in 2007, ODM emerged victorious in the National Assembly, winning 96 of the 208 seats. President Mwai Kibaki’s party came second with a meagre 43 seats.
The presidential election that pitted ODM’s Raila Odinga against President Kibaki was controversial, with allegations of rigging that culminated in post-election violence and eventually the formation of a grand coalition government.
In the 2013 general election, ODM suffered a major setback after the fallout among the Pentagon members and the defection of William Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi, who went on to form new political parties.
Ruto formed the United Republican Party (URP), which won 62 seats. ODM dropped by 21 seats, securing only 78. Uhuru Kenyatta, who eventually became president with his newly formed vehicle, The National Alliance (TNA), got 72 seats. Both Uhuru and Ruto contested on the same ticket as president and deputy president, garnering a combined 134 seats in Parliament.
In 2017, ODM’s star continued to fade, securing only 62 seats against President Uhuru’s Jubilee Party, which won 140 seats. ODM lost a significant 16 seats that year.
In the 2022 general election, ODM realized an improvement, rising to 78 seats, similar to its 2013 performance. President Ruto’s UDA Party received 138 seats, reversing the table on his former party and leader.
This month, ODM was expected to celebrate its 20th anniversary but postponed the event to November in what they termed “fair consideration.”
Raila wrote on his timeline:
“After careful consideration, we have today decided to postpone @TheODMparty @20 celebrations to ensure inclusivity by engaging with more counties before converging in Mombasa. Consequently, the main event in Mombasa has been rescheduled to 14th to 16th November 2025. Between now and then, the following counties and activities will form part of the ODM@20 calendar.”
As Kenyans head toward the 2027 general election, all is not well in ODM, the party of constitutional liberation, with founder members and analysts agreeing that it could be walking into the shadows.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna opened the lid on the party’s decline when he said ODM is no longer attracting candidates for various elective posts.
Sifuna said aspirants were no longer interested in ODM tickets and were seeking other political vehicles to contest the November by-elections.
Indeed, Sifuna was vindicated in Kasipul and Ugunja, where the least number of aspirants sought party tickets at the primaries. In Ugunja, only three went for primaries, while in Kasipul, where 17 aspirants had shown interest, only five sought nomination.
The situation worsened this week when a candidate for the Kisa East Ward seat returned the certificate, saying it was issued without finalizing consultations and that he had moved to DAP-K, where he is now the candidate.
In Kakamega County, where the party once dominated, ODM has witnessed dwindling fortunes.
To cap it all, ODM failed to field a candidate for the Malava Constituency seat and instead opted to support a UDA candidate.
Thomas Omurunga Oyolo declined the offer, saying he had moved to DAP-K and that the award of the ticket was done without consultations.
He wrote:
“I, Thomas Omurunga Oyolo, on 12th September, was awarded a nomination certificate to contest for Kisa East Ward in the coming by-election slated for 27th November 2025. It is regrettable that the nomination certificate was drawn and issued in my name before consultations could reach their logical conclusion. By the time ODM was reaching out to me, my name had already been forwarded to DAP-K, where I am duly registered as a life member.”
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino recently declared his support for Kalonzo Musyoka for president, who in turn offered him the position of deputy party leader in the new restructuring of the party.
Founder member Caroli Omondi, in a recent interview, said ODM is a shadow of its former self.
“ODM is not what it was 20 years ago. We have three by-elections in Kisii—ward by-elections—and nobody picked the ODM ticket. If you go to Kakamega, which was our stronghold, nobody picked the ODM ticket. In Malava Constituency, let’s not pretend—nobody picked it.
In Parliament, we are not the strength we once were 20 years ago. The idea of a broad-based government has brought two schools of thought in the party.
We cannot lie to people. Our supporters are not children. Let’s be honest with them. There is a group that doesn’t support the broad-based government and one that does.
In Kisii, during the recent ODM event, there was not a single MP from Nyamira or Kisii County elected on an ODM ticket who attended the function. That should tell you something. At Raila’s recent meeting in Kakamega, only three of the 12 MPs attended—and these are ODM-elected MPs. There is a problem somewhere. We must do introspection,” he said.
However, ODM Director of Elections has maintained that ODM remains the biggest party and will not die.
“I want to tell those who think ODM is dying—we are getting stronger and stronger,” he said.
