By James Okoth
As Kasipul prepares to go to the polls, what would ordinarily be a constituency by-election has now evolved into a high-stakes political duel with a quiet referendum on Governor Gladys Wanga’s leadership and the resurging influence of her estranged deputy, Oyugi Magwanga.
The simmering tension between the two, once presented as a seamless partnership brokered by the late ODM leader Raila Odinga, has finally spilled into the public domain. The cracks that began as whispered dissent within the Homa Bay County corridors have widened into open confrontation, triggered by the Kasipul by-election that has now drawn in every major political player from the lakeside region.
The “forced marriage” unravels
When the late Raila Odinga midwifed the Wanga–Magwanga ticket ahead of the 2022 General Election, it was hailed as a masterstroke with a unifying ticket designed to consolidate Homa Bay’s fractious ODM family. But three years later, the union lies in ruins.
Recent remarks by Magwanga, captured in viral clips circulating across social media, laid bare the tension long hidden behind party unity slogans. The deputy governor’s sharp criticism of Wanga’s political choices, particularly imposition of Boyd Were as ODM’s preferred candidate in Kasipul, has thrown the county’s political structure into turmoil.
In a move interpreted as outright rebellion, Magwanga rallied his supporters behind independent candidate Tom Aroko, describing him as “the people’s true voice.” His open defiance has unsettled the ODM hierarchy and injected new energy into an election that was expected to be a routine win for the ruling party.
A by-election that mirrors 2027
The Kasipul by-election, observers now say, has become a rehearsal for the 2027 gubernatorial race. Should ODM’s Boyd Were lose, it would be interpreted as a rejection of Governor Wanga’s leadership and a validation of Magwanga’s growing political clout. Conversely, an ODM victory would restore Wanga’s grip and reaffirm the party’s enduring authority over the region’s political direction.
“Kasipul has become the political thermometer for Homa Bay. Whoever wins here will set the tone for 2027. If Wanga’s camp falters, Magwanga will walk into the next election with momentum and legitimacy,” said a Homabay resident.
ODM’s balancing act
For the ODM leadership, this election presents both a challenge and a test of its ability to hold its western flank intact. The party’s dominance in Nyanza has recently shown signs of fatigue, with internal rifts emerging between younger leaders seeking autonomy and traditional loyalists defending the old order.
ODM insiders admit that the decision to back Boyd Were, viewed by some as a Wanga loyalist, has deepened divisions rather than heal them. A planned visit by top ODM officials to Kasipul ahead of the vote could either calm the waters or amplify the storm, depending on how they navigate the Magwanga question.
Magwanga’s gamble
Magwanga’s open defiance of the ODM establishment is both risky and strategic. By positioning himself as the voice of “betrayed loyalists” within the county, he is setting the stage for a direct challenge in 2027. His endorsement of Aroko, though framed as a matter of “principle,” is widely viewed as a proxy war with Wanga in a calculated attempt to test the strength of his support base without directly confronting the party.
Yet, if Aroko loses decisively, Magwanga could find himself isolated and politically weakened, branded as the man who defied ODM only to fall flat.
“I am a man of principle with a strong Christian background. I can not be blackmailed or intimidated to support Boyd Were,” Magwanga roared, “Between Tom Aroko and Were, who was in ODM first? Why force him into our guts? To serve whose interests?” He paused.
What’s at stake
For Governor Wanga, the Kasipul race is more than just about party discipline but more of the control of her political backyard. A win for Boyd Were would cement her position as the undisputed leader of Homa Bay politics, silencing critics who view her as politically detached and over-reliant on Nairobi’s ODM elite.
A loss would however expose her to intense scrutiny and embolden rivals who have long accused her of centralizing power and sidelining her deputy. It would also revive whispers of succession politics that could shape the 2027 race well beyond Homa Bay.
Ultimately, the Kasipul by-election is shaping up as a defining moment for the future of ODM’s internal democracy in Nyanza. It is a contest between loyalty and defiance, control and autonomy, unity and rebellion.
Whatever the outcome, the political aftershocks will be felt far beyond Kasipul’s borders. The veil has been torn. In Homa Bay, the battle lines are no longer blurred.
