By Valentine Omondi
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing an increasingly consequential political question ahead of the 2027 General Election: should the party support President William Ruto’s re-election unconditionally or use its electoral influence to negotiate a share of power in the next government?
The disagreement has exposed competing positions among ODM leaders, with some urging the party to stand firmly behind Ruto without setting conditions while others insist that a political agreement must guarantee the party the Deputy President position, a share of government appointments and protection of its traditional electoral strongholds.
The debate comes as Ruto seeks to consolidate support through his broad-based government arrangement with ODM, raising questions about the terms of their cooperation and whether the two political formations can agree on a common strategy ahead of the election.
Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma added another dimension to the debate on Wednesday, October 28, arguing that Ruto would lose the 2027 presidential election without ODM’s support.
“The support of the ODM party across its bases guarantees President Ruto’s re-election. With the ODM, President Ruto wins. Without ODM, President Ruto loses in 2027,” Kaluma wrote.
His remarks reflect the argument advanced by leaders who believe ODM’s political influence gives it considerable leverage in negotiations with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
However, while some leaders want that influence translated into specific political commitments, others believe unconditional support would preserve the relationship and allow the party to consolidate the benefits of its cooperation with the President.
The Push for Conditional Support
ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga and deputy party leader Simba Arati have emerged among the prominent advocates of a negotiated arrangement that reflects the party’s political strength.
On September 8, Wanga demanded that ODM receive half of the positions in the next government, including the Deputy President position, if Ruto wins a second term.
“If UDA gets 10 cabinet secretaries, then we also have to get the same number. If UDA gets the president, then we have to get the deputy president. These are not negotiable,” Wanga said.
Arati has similarly maintained that ODM should receive a substantial share of government appointments and called for zoning arrangements to protect the party’s traditional strongholds from competition with UDA.
The zoning proposal would require the two parties to negotiate how they compete for elective positions in areas where both have political ambitions, potentially allowing ODM to preserve its parliamentary and county-level representation while supporting Ruto’s presidential bid.
The demands are not limited to the party’s national leadership.
Migori Senator Eddy Oketch has also advocated for equal power sharing, the Deputy President position and respect for ODM’s traditional political zones.
Awendo MP Walter Owino has questioned how party leaders would persuade their supporters to back the broad-based arrangement without clear benefits for ODM.
The argument advanced by this camp is that supporting a presidential candidate should not mean surrendering the party’s interests in the next government.
If ODM is expected to mobilise its supporters behind Ruto, its leaders want the partnership to reflect that contribution through an agreed distribution of political positions and electoral opportunities.
The Leaders Who Want Unconditional Support
However, another section of ODM believes the party should support Ruto without attaching conditions to its re-election commitment.
Nyando MP Jared Okelo has argued that the President deserves support because of what his administration has done for the region.
“We will stand with you because of what you have done,” Okelo said while pledging unconditional support for Ruto.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi and Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi have also backed unconditional support, arguing that Ruto has recognised the region through his administration’s actions.
Rongo MP Paul Abuor has cautioned against rigid demands, maintaining that they could create mistrust and undermine the existing political partnership.
Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi has similarly argued that ODM should continue cooperating with Ruto without making the relationship dependent on specific conditions.
The position of this camp centres on continuity, arguing that the broad-based government has already opened political and administrative opportunities for ODM members.
For these leaders, demanding particular positions before committing to Ruto could complicate negotiations and weaken a relationship they believe has already delivered benefits.
Their position, however, raises a question that the party has yet to resolve: if ODM commits to supporting Ruto before negotiating the terms of a future alliance, what guarantees would remain to secure the positions and electoral arrangements demanded by other members?
The disagreement therefore concerns not only the President’s re-election but also the strategy ODM should adopt when dealing with a partner that has its own political interests.
The Deputy President Position Complicates the Deal
The most visible point of contention is the Deputy President position.
Wanga and other ODM leaders have argued that if UDA retains the presidency, ODM should provide the running mate.
On October 19, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir reiterated that the party would support Ruto’s re-election but insist on producing his deputy. He also proposed Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho as a possible running mate.
“ODM as a party is supporting the re-election of President William Ruto but his deputy must be from our party,” Nassir said.
The demand presents a potential challenge for UDA, where Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his allies have an interest in retaining the position.
The running mate question therefore exposes the competing expectations within the proposed alliance. ODM wants its political contribution reflected in the presidential ticket, while UDA must consider the interests of its existing supporters and leaders.
Although some ODM members have already declared their preferred arrangement, the final decision would require negotiations between the political formations.
Kaluma’s warning about the consequences of losing ODM’s support adds weight to the argument that the party should negotiate from a position of strength. Nevertheless, his statement does not establish that UDA will concede the running mate position or accept ODM’s other demands.
Those remain issues to be settled through political negotiations.
Zoning and the Battle for Political Territory
Beyond the presidential ticket, ODM’s demand for zoning highlights another potential source of disagreement.
Arati has called on UDA to respect areas regarded as ODM strongholds, arguing that the ruling party should allow ODM to organise and compete for seats in its traditional bases.
The proposal is significant because the two parties could find themselves competing for the same parliamentary, gubernatorial and county assembly positions even as they cooperate over the presidency.
For ODM, zoning would offer a way to protect its political structures and ensure that cooperation with Ruto does not come at the expense of its representation in elective offices.
For UDA, however, restricting its activities in particular regions could conflict with its ambition to expand its national presence.
The question becomes even more complicated when individual politicians consider their own electoral ambitions. An agreement between party leaders would not necessarily satisfy candidates who believe they can win seats in areas claimed by their proposed coalition partners.
Consequently, zoning could become as contentious as the Deputy President position because it would determine how political opportunities are distributed at the grassroots.
The disagreement also reveals why an agreement to support Ruto’s presidential bid may not, on its own, resolve the wider relationship between ODM and UDA.
Kaluma’s Warning and the Question of Political Leverage
Kaluma’s declaration that Ruto would lose without ODM is relevant to the ongoing debate because it captures the central argument behind the demands for conditional support.
If ODM’s leaders believe their party is essential to Ruto’s re-election, they have a reason to seek assurances that their contribution will be recognised in the next government.
But the warning also raises a distinction between political confidence and a guaranteed electoral outcome.
The strength of ODM’s traditional bases does not, by itself, determine how every voter will behave in 2027. The election will also be influenced by turnout, competing candidates, campaign strategies and political developments before the vote.
More importantly, the claim that ODM is important to Ruto’s electoral prospects does not resolve the internal disagreement over how the party should use its influence.
Leaders advocating unconditional support appear to prioritise maintaining the existing relationship, while those demanding conditions want a formal agreement before committing the party’s electoral support.
The two positions could ultimately converge through negotiations, but they currently reflect different approaches to the same political challenge.
Can ODM Agree on What It Wants?
The debate exposes a difficult balancing act for ODM as it prepares for the 2027 election.
The party wants to maintain its political relevance, protect its traditional strongholds and secure a meaningful role in the next administration. At the same time, its leaders disagree over whether these objectives require conditions or whether they can be achieved by sustaining the existing partnership with Ruto.
An unconditional endorsement could allow the relationship to proceed without immediate disputes over positions, but it would leave questions about the terms of the next government to be addressed later.
A conditional arrangement would require the parties to negotiate those questions in advance, but it could also expose disagreements over the running mate position, Cabinet appointments and the allocation of elective seats.
Neither approach guarantees that every ODM leader or supporter will accept the eventual arrangement.
The debate is therefore about more than whether the party should support Ruto. It is about whether ODM can develop a common negotiating position and ensure that its leaders are working towards the same political objectives.
Kaluma has argued that Ruto cannot win without ODM. Wanga and Arati want the party’s influence reflected in power sharing, the Deputy President position and zoning, while Mbadi, Wandayi, Okelo and other leaders have urged unconditional support.
The central question is whether ODM will use the electoral influence its leaders claim to negotiate specific commitments from Ruto or whether the party will support his re-election without making those commitments a precondition.
