By Anderson Ojwang
Ahead of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s Sunday homecoming, a new opinion poll has shown a steady rise, displacing other opposition presidential aspirants as the likely and preferred challenger to President William Ruto.
The poll by TIFA revealed that support for Ruto stagnated in the months of May and June, remaining at 24 percent, while Sifuna had a significant rise from 0 to 15 percent.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who had been touted as a possible joint opposition presidential candidate and even received the backing of DP Party leader Justin Muturi, is on a downward spiral.
Kalonzo, who had peaked at 25 percent, has witnessed a significant drop to 13 percent in June.
Jubilee Party leader Fred Matiang’i, smarting from an awful performance of the party in the Ol Kalou by-election and who was touted as a frontrunner earlier at 32 percent, has currently declined to 14 percent in the May-June polls.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, despite winning the Ol Kalou by-election and controlling Mt Kenya, is yet to hit double digits. He peaked at 9 percent and has declined to 7 percent.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino at the beginning showed a steady rise, peaking at 8 percent in 2025, but expressed his interest in the Nairobi governor seat. Thus he has become dormant in the race but was still polled at 2 percent.
Other presidential aspirants peaked at 8 percent in 2025 but have now slumped to 2 percent.
The undecided
The poll shows that one in five of the people polled were undecided, marking a significant 20 percent. But this scenario is likely to change as we progress to the election.
Why Ruto’s broad-based approach is a worry
The poll shows that 44 percent of ODM supporters back Sifuna, and he only enjoys 20 percent of support from Matiang’i, 9 percent from Kalonzo, 4 percent from Maraga, 2 percent from Babu, 4 percent from Gachagua, 1 percent, while 13 percent remain undecided.
More worrying is the Linda Mwananchi versus Dr Oburu Oginga-led Linda Ground. Linda Mwananchi recorded a slight increase in support from 73 percent to 74 percent. The supporters are consolidating behind the Linda Mwananchi position.
For Linda Ground, it is on a downward spiral from 24 percent in May to 20 percent in June, and it continues to lose ground.
ODM and UDA decline
The poll shows that support for both UDA and ODM has steadily declined after the 2022 elections, while DCP is the new kid on the block.
ODM declined sharply in August 2022 from 29 percent to 11 percent in September 2025 but regained gradually to 20 percent in June 2024.
UDA has witnessed a sharp drop from 33 percent in August 2022 to 15 percent in September 2025 and gained a slight recovery to 17 percent in June.
DCP has shown steady increase from 6 percent to peak at 14 percent in May 2026 but dropped to 12 percent in June.
Jubilee Party has maintained steady growth from 3 percent in August 2022 to 12 percent in May 2026 and settling at 11 percent in June.
Wiper Party has also witnessed gradual increase from 4 percent in September 2025 to 9 percent in May and back to 8 percent in June.
DAP-K and Ford-K have been consistent at 1 percent and remain marginal players.
The undecided peaked at 42 percent in September 2025 but has whittled to 28 percent in June.
Parties’ preferred candidates
For UDA, Ruto remains the preferred candidate at 84 percent, while Kalonzo gets 3 percent, and Sifuna, Matiang’i, and Gachagua stand at 2 percent each.
For DCP, Gachagua is at 44 percent, followed by Kalonzo at 19 percent, Matiang’i at 15 percent, Sifuna, Babu, and Ruto at 2 percent respectively.
For Jubilee Party, Matiang’i leads at 73 percent, Ruto at 6 percent, Sifuna and Kalonzo at 4 percent each, Gachagua at 3 percent, and Babu at 1 percent.
For Wiper, Kalonzo’s preference is at 90 percent, Ruto at 3 percent, Sifuna at 2 percent, and Babu at 1 percent.
