By Anderson Ojwang
Thirty-six years ago, the Gema and Kamatusa political alliance negotiated by then President, the late Daniel Moi, with Mt Kenya elders and leaders collapsed after the Kipipiri by-election.
Kanu, the ruling party in the 1996 by-election, fell to the hammer of his former Vice President, the late Mwai Kibaki of the DP party.
Similarly, on Thursday, during the Ol Kalou by-election, the fate befell President William Ruto after his party UDA lost in the by-election to his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua of DCP.
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta had in 2013 brokered a political alliance with Ruto, which culminated in a joint ticket presidency. It became known as “kumi-kumi.”
After the Kipipiri loss, the political formation Gema-Kamatusa, which was meant to bring the two regions together, collapsed over what was said to be unfulfilled electricity promises in Kipipiri.
Interestingly, President Ruto and his former boss, Uhuru Kenyatta, coined the political alliance that brought the two regions together after they were charged at The Hague over the 2007 post-election violence.
Uhuru pulled out of the union after the 2017 general elections and entered into a political handshake with the late Raila Amolo Odinga.
In the 2022 presidential election, Uhuru supported the Azimio La Umoja candidate but lost to Ruto.
Ruto, through Gachagua and other leaders from Mt Kenya, including Deputy President Prof Kindiki Kithure, mastered a victory.
Gachagua, after his impeachment, has declared war on President Ruto and has ganged up with Uhuru, DP leader JB Muturi, Martha Karua, and other leaders to lock the President out of Mt Kenya.
Trends and patterns in Mt Kenya
President Ruto lost the Ol Kalou by-election by 86 percent to the DCP candidate and eventual winner Waweru Ngotho. The UDA candidate managed a paltry 13 percent.
In 1996, Paul Githiomi Mwangi of the Democratic Party (DP) won overwhelmingly, garnering 84.5 percent with 14,858 votes, against the ruling party Kanu’s Joe Maina, who only received 3,144 votes, accounting for 17.5 percent.
In the 2022 presidential election, Ruto won in Nyeri County by 81.7 percent, accounting for 272,507 votes against Azimio La Umoja Presidential candidate, the late Raila Odinga’s 15.82 percent, accounting for 52,043 votes.
In Kirinyaga County, Ruto secured 84.08 percent with 230,752 votes against Raila’s 13.7 percent, accounting for 37,978 votes.
In Murang’a County, Ruto’s percentage win was 81.9 percent with 343,411 votes against Raila’s 11.30 percent with 75,539 votes.
In Kiambu County, Ruto won by 72.99 percent with 606,105 votes against Raila’s 210,493 votes.
In Nyandarua County, Ruto won by 78.2 percent with 189,384 votes against Raila’s 20 percent with 48,227 votes.
In Meru County, Ruto won by 80.87 percent with 369,363 votes against Raila’s 17.48 percent with 79,842 votes.
In Embu County, Ruto won by 64.34 percent with 187,186 votes against Raila’s 18.97 percent with 31,118 votes.
From the above pattern and trend, the Ol Kalou by-election, where the UDA candidate received 13 percent against DCP’s 86 percent, is a clear indication of how Ruto will likely perform in the presidential elections in 2027.
From the analysis of Raila’s percentage and in comparison to the Ol Kalou outcome, Ruto will likely swing between 10-20 percent in Mt Kenya.
Nyeri ghost
Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia wrote: “I want to thank the people of Ol Kalou for maintaining our history of Kipipiri 1995. This was an unprecedented election for our time, where the entire government system opposed us.”
Just like his mentor Moi, President Ruto fell to the Nyeri ghost in the Kipipiri by-election.
Moi, who was in his final term of presidency, witnessed a collapse of his Kanu party at the 2002 presidential election, when the party presidential candidate Uhuru lost to Kibaki.
In the September 1995 by-election, then President the late Moi faced off with the Democratic Party leader, the late Mwai Kibaki, in the contest.
Mwai Kibaki, from Nyeri, was supporting the party candidate Paul Githiomi Mwangi.
President Moi was from the Kalenjin community, and currently President William Ruto, his student and from his community, presented a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate, Samuel Muchina. Kibaki was Moi’s Vice President before he was sacked, and he later formed DP after the repealing of Section 2A that allowed multi-partyism.
President Ruto faced off with his impeached former deputy Gachagua, and the DCP candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru – Ngotho easily rode to victory.
The politics of Ol Kalou has been determined by Nyeri, with the first MP being the socialist and fiery politician, the late JM Kariuki, during the administration of the founding president, the late Jomo Kenyatta.
JM’s parents were originally from Nyeri but were displaced in 1928 from their family home in Chinga village.
Relationship
Just like the late Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, the relationship between the people of Nyandarua and his government was bad.
In the late 1960s and early ’70s, Kariuki’s relationship with Kenyatta became increasingly strained as Kariuki became increasingly vocal in his criticism of Kenyatta’s governmental policies and their results, including high levels of government corruption and widening inequalities.
The government’s attempts to thwart his re-election as Nyandarua North MP in 1972 flopped because of his popularity among ordinary Kenyans.
While Kenyatta praised Kenya’s great progress, JM declared that Kenya “had become a country of 10 millionaires and ten million beggars.”
Most of the local leaders from Nyandarua County, led by Senator John Methu and Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia, have been critical of Ruto. Now the support for Ruto and the opposition is split right in the middle at three.
Defections
The recent defections by Murang’a Governor Irungu Kangata and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, close confidants of Ruto, to the opposition were a clear indication of the end of the President’s reign in the region.
Calm the storm
Kapsaret MP Kipchumba Sudi moved to calm the storm, saying the loss will have no effect on the presidential election.
“Let’s all calm down and stop making wild proclamations like Gachagua, who just said he will mobilise Molima’s 7M votes against Ruto in 2027. 7 Million!? From where? Last time I checked, Molima’s TOTAL votes cast in 2022 (for both Raila and Ruto) was 3.8 million… I have included ALL the votes in cosmopolitan counties like Nakuru, Laikipia and Kiambu, to counterbalance the Nairobi votes (which are give or take 500k votes cast – 67% of the approximate 800k Nairobi Molima voters). Post-2022, IEBC has registered about 527,000 new voters in Molima counties. So, long arithmetic simplified, there is no universe where Gachagua gives anyone above 4M votes, even assuming they vote 100% for his preferred presidential ticket. Maths don’t lie, Wamunyoros do. PS: One of the tricks Wamunyoros normally use to shore up their numbers and create an artificial ‘tuko wengi’ perception is they usually compare their REGISTERED votes total against other regions’ votes CAST. It is not uncommon to hear them say ‘Sisi tuko na kura million saba, na nyinyi hamna kura, mlipigia Raila kura blah blah.’ That trick won’t work anymore… We now compare Registered vs Registered, and Cast vs Cast… WAOL,” he wrote.
