By Anderson Ojwang
President William Ruto’s backyard of Rift Valley may be turning out to be a weak link in his re-election game plan, with the emerging infiltration by the opposition in the region and low uptake of voter registration.
Surprisingly, the recent opinion poll by TIFA revealed an emerging gain by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, rating at 19 percent against President Ruto’s 24 percent.
Jubilee Party presidential candidate Dr Fred Matiang’i was at 14 percent, while the new entrant and ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna came in at 10 percent, and finally DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua stood at 9 percent.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who has declared his interest for the Nairobi governorship, was rated at 2 percent, and 15 percent remained undecided.
Implications
For the opposition, a unity candidate with Kalonzo as the presidential flag bearer with either Sifuna or Matiang’i as the running mate would be a nightmare for President Ruto.
A Kalonzo-Matiang’i ticket would start them off at 33 percent, while a Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket would be at 29 percent. The Kalonzo-Sifuna rating is likely to pick up with the current Linda Mwananchi wave rocking the country.
For President Ruto, a constant of 24 percent against a united opposition at 54 percent is scary and frightening with only 16 months to the next general elections.
The 54 percent opposition rating provides it with a wide ray of choice for a presidential candidate and a running mate, and the President must work overnight to ensure the opposition does not remain united.
President Ruto’s allies in the ODM faction of Linda Ground are not ranked, and this injures the possible credibility of a running mate from the group.
By-election worry
The just-concluded by-elections in Rift Valley showed a sad reality on the ground, especially in Emurua Dikirr, Narok County, and Porro Ward in Samburu County. For Endo Ward in Elgeyo Marakwet, the confidence in the party and President Ruto is still very high.
In the parliamentary by-election, Mr David Kipsang Keter of the UDA Party won after getting 18,266 votes against Vincent Kibet Rotich of the DCP Party, who got 10,760 votes. DCP, which was recently formed, showed a strong performance with 36.4 percent of the votes cast against UDA’s 63.6 percent.
Total registered voters were 44,353, of which 29,538 votes were cast, giving a voter turnout of 66.6 percent.
Gachagua said his party was celebrating that one year after its formation, it stormed Mr William Ruto’s perceived stronghold in style, gave him a run for his money, and outperformed contemporaries.
Gachagua wrote: “Congratulations to Rotich for the splendid performance that has shaken south Rift politics, which for far too long – in fact for over 60 years – has been left behind in independent Kenya. A score of 10,760 votes is no mean feat.”
Gachagua said Kenya remains hopeful and greatly indebted to the people of Emurua Dikirr and hoped for a better future.
“I am so excited that you and your team worked tirelessly and made the DCP Party a key player in Rift Valley politics, reflecting Kenya’s focus for a united nation where political parties do not represent perceptions of regional and parochial representation, but a Kenya that is deprived of healthcare, education, security, and a bright future for its generations,” he said.
He said the DCP Party has made a heroic entry into Kenyan politics and is undoubtedly the most credible alternative vehicle for all aspirants who do not enjoy the favour of the ruling and corrupt elite, who cherish democracy and detest sycophancy.
“To the great people of Emurua Dikirr, you are the true heroes of our nation, Kenya, for showing independence of mind, rationality, exercising your democratic right, and refusing to be intimidated. I will, on my return from my overseas trip to the United Kingdom, personally visit you and thank those who campaigned for and supported Hon. Vincent Rotich. Watch this space: Vincent Rotich will be the candidate to beat on 10th August 2027,” he wrote.
UDA wrote on its social media platforms: “Thank you, Emurua Dikirr, Endo, and Porro for standing firm with UDA.”
In Samburu County, Daniel Lolngojine of the UDA Party was declared the winner with 2,328 votes. Josphat Jumani Leleur of the KANU Party finished second with 1,036 votes. Out of 6,358 registered voters, 4,194 votes were cast, giving a voter turnout of 65.96 percent.
The party posted: “Congratulations Daniel Lolngojine on your victory in the Porro Ward by-election in Samburu County. Your win is a clear reflection of the trust and confidence the people have placed in your leadership and vision.”
Voter registration
President Ruto could be facing apathy among his Kalenjin natives and decried the low uptake in voter registration and acquisition of national identity cards.
Ruto expressed disappointment over the low voter registration numbers from his Rift Valley stronghold and the Kalenjin community following the recently concluded Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) exercise.
Ruto said it was a major setback, noting that he is crisscrossing the country seeking support while his base appears reluctant to register and turn out to vote.
“Over 1.8 million eligible voters with IDs have not registered, alongside another 500,000 youth who recently turned 18. We have 1.8 million Kalenjins here who have IDs but have not registered. Another 500,000 aged 18 have also not registered,” he said.
The President termed it a heavy political burden to seek support elsewhere while his own stronghold lags behind, urging residents to register in large numbers and secure his second-term bid in 2027.
“You’re giving me a tough job, struggling to seek support elsewhere while I have people back home. No, it shouldn’t be like this,” Ruto stated.
