Will Loyalty Grant Mbadi the Nyanza Political Throne in the New Power Matrix

By Anderson Ojwang

The immediate former National Chairman of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), John Mbadi, can be credited as one of the most loyal servants of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

Mbadi’s loyalty to the party and to Raila is above reproach. That is why, when he was asked to step down in favor of Gladys Wanga for the Homa Bay gubernatorial seat, he did so without question.

Mbadi’s associates during the campaign gave a glimpse of what happened, saying that after he received a telephone call from Raila directing him to shelve his ambition and instead support Wanga, he complied.

In the telephone conversation, he was promised the Finance Cabinet post in Raila’s anticipated government that never came to be.

Mbadi walked to his car, locked himself inside for one hour, cried, and came to terms with the new reality. After that, he broke the sad news and decision to his deflated inner team and then drove to Nairobi.

Back in Nairobi, Raila assigned him to listen to election disputes—using the same authority that had clipped his gubernatorial ambition—and Mbadi executed the mission as expected of him.

Mbadi’s loyalty landed him a position as Assistant Minister in the Office of the Prime Minister during the Grand Coalition Government. His closeness to and loyalty toward Raila made him a dependable player.

This explains why Raila settled on him to become the ODM National Chairman after the death of Homa Bay Senator Otieno Kajwang.

During the formation of the Broad-Based Government, Raila fulfilled his promise when President Ruto appointed Mbadi as Cabinet Secretary in charge of the Treasury and Economic Planning.

Currently, Mbadi is showing similar loyalty to President Ruto, having become one of the strongest crusaders for Ruto’s re-election in the 2027 elections.

“Your Excellency, you are not only our neighbor but our friend. You are guaranteed the support of this region.

You have demonstrated to us that you care and that you don’t want this region to lag behind. I have worked with you very closely for over a year, and I know your government is about inclusivity.

What is happening in Siaya, Kisumu, Migori, and Homa Bay counties is happening in the rest of the country.

You gave me the power of the pen, and I know the budget from page one to the last page.

Those people who talk of one term—I want to assure you here that they will be shocked. The talk of one term is an illusion.

You are going to get your second term, and you will be rewarded. And when you finish your presidential term, you will hand over to another president who thinks about Kenya and not just a region,” he said.

Mbadi’s loyalty was again evident when he declared that he would not seek any elective post in the 2027 elections but would instead campaign for President Ruto’s re-election.

“I wish His Excellency to hear this clearly—we have unity among our leaders and a single governor at the helm. In 2022, I vied for the governorship together with Wanga; however, I would like to declare unequivocally that I will not be contesting any seat in 2027,” he said.

For Mbadi, his eyes are not only fixed on Nyanza’s leadership; he is also eyeing the presidency, which explains why he is identifying with every part of the country.

He said at a recent function in Karachuonyo that ODM would support President Ruto in 2027 and, in 2032, the community would also present a candidate.

“The president in 2027—we’ve already decided, and there is nothing ODM will think about; we’ve already accepted that. I was the longest-serving chairman of ODM in this country. We’re going to unite with Ruto in 2027, and we’re organizing ourselves for 2032. Has the time come or not? Is anyone against that? We have to organize ourselves also. And by the way, since Ruto became president, he has been seen,” he said.

In his role as CS for the Treasury, Mbadi has helped the president steady the ship, and his service delivery has endeared him to the public.

Mbadi has developed a new strategy to engage Kenyans in Kamkunjis to explain the government’s economic policies and plans.

He has presided over the growth of Kenya’s economy, which has demonstrated resilience—recording an average growth rate of 5.2 percent between 2023 and 2024, outpacing both the global average of 3.3 percent and Sub-Saharan Africa’s 3.8 percent.

He attributed this performance to deliberate policy choices and a diversified economic base.

In Nyanza, Mbadi has been traversing the region, holding fund drives in what can be viewed as a strategic move to gain public acceptance amid a new power shift and matrix.

Mbadi is an orator, blessed with strong oratory skills, which he hopes to exploit in his future political pursuits.

For Mbadi, loyalty is everything—and that is why, in the new political arrangement, Raila could possibly hand over the mantle to him. He has remained a trusted lieutenant and loyal disciple to Raila.

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