By Billy Mijungu
As Raila Odinga vies for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, Kenya’s political landscape hangs in the balance. His victory or loss will determine the future of the ODM party and the broader realignment of power. The stakes are high, and the consequences are profound.
With a broad-based government already in place, ODM’s internal dynamics are shifting rapidly. Many of its leaders, once staunch opposition figures, have aligned with the Kenya Kwanza administration. The likes of Gladys Wanga, whose influence within the party is undeniable, have strategically positioned themselves, leveraging their ties with Ruto’s government for personal and political gain. Her husband’s appointment as a parastatal chair is just one example of how ODM figures are benefiting from the arrangement.
This shift exposes a deep rift within ODM. Party Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo represent a faction reluctant to blindly endorse the government’s policies. They recognize the pitfalls of their 2022 strategy, where overt support for Uhuru Kenyatta ultimately cost them the presidency. Now, they are carefully navigating their opposition role, wary of repeating past mistakes.
Meanwhile, the broader political class is positioning itself for 2027. The impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has complicated matters, with ODM hesitant to take a definitive stance. Some see it as a tactical move to weaken Ruto’s support in Central Kenya, while others argue it signals deeper fragmentation within UDA—something ODM could exploit.
Cracks within the Azimio coalition are also becoming more pronounced. The United Democratic Movement (UDM) from Northern Kenya and Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper party are contemplating alternative alliances. UDM appears inclined toward Ruto, while Wiper sees an opportunity in Gachagua’s potential resurgence. These shifts further weaken the opposition coalition, jeopardizing ODM’s position.
Despite these changes, ODM remains Kenya’s strongest party. However, its identity and future direction are uncertain. Sifuna and other loyalists are working to ensure the party is not tainted by the failures of the Ruto administration. Their goal is clear—to keep ODM relevant and maintain momentum toward the presidency.
If Raila Odinga loses the AUC race, he will return to Kenya with renewed political vigour. His loyalists, many of whom have lost touch with the electorate’s shifting aspirations, will see his return as their saving grace, securing them a fresh lease on political life.
His presence would also solidify ODM’s grip on opposition politics. Even if not actively running for office, Raila’s political brand remains unmatched. His strategic appearances, framed as AUC development initiatives, would maintain his influence and keep his political base engaged.
The key challenge for ODM, however, will be its ability to reinvent itself. If Raila remains the undisputed leader, the party risks stagnation, unable to adapt to the evolving political landscape. The electorate is increasingly seeking change, and ODM must balance its reliance on Raila’s influence with a fresh, dynamic approach.
Regardless of Raila’s fate at the AUC, Kenya’s political future remains fluid. ODM’s internal struggles, shifting alliances, and strategic realignments will define the next chapter. Whether Raila secures a continental role or returns to domestic politics, his influence will continue shaping Kenya’s political narrative.
One thing remains clear, Kenyan politics is driven more by personalities than ideology. And for now, Raila Odinga remains a central figure, win or lose.
