By Billy Mijungu
The upcoming by-election in Mbeere North is shaping up to be more than just a routine electoral process. With MP Geoffrey Ruku having been called to the Cabinet, his vacant seat is now a political battlefield where Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s influence will be put to the test against President William Ruto’s grip on the Mount Kenya region.
For months, political analysts and insiders have speculated about growing cracks within the UDA ranks, particularly regarding the loyalty of the Mount Kenya region to President Ruto. Since assuming office, Gachagua has positioned himself as the region’s de facto leader, advocating for a more region-centric approach to politics and governance. The Mbeere North by-election will be a crucial indicator of whether Gachagua’s push to consolidate Mount Kenya’s political strength under his leadership is bearing fruit or whether Ruto still maintains undisputed influence.
If Gachagua’s preferred candidate triumphs, it would send a strong message that he is successfully carving out an independent political base. It would embolden him in future political negotiations and solidify his stature as the Mountain’s kingpin. For Ruto, this would be a serious warning sign that his once unshakable support in the region is eroding, forcing him to recalibrate his approach ahead of 2027. On the other hand, if Ruto’s candidate secures victory, it would reaffirm his dominance in Mount Kenya, potentially weakening Gachagua’s standing. It would also indicate that, despite the noise about Gachagua’s rising clout, the region still aligns with the President. For Gachagua, such an outcome would be a setback, potentially undermining his ambitions to solidify his grip on the Mountain.
Mbeere North is a delicate constituency where both national and regional factors will come into play. While Gachagua’s grassroots strategy and his anticipated new party, expected in May, could influence voter sentiment, Ruto’s established campaign machinery and financial muscle remain formidable. Given UDA’s traditional dominance, a Ruto-backed candidate may have the upper hand, but if the anti-establishment wave is strong enough, Gachagua could pull a surprise victory. Recently sacked Justin Muturi could well be the candidate in Mbeere North to continue causing discomfort by tormenting Ruto, or they might team up with like-minded people opposing Ruto to have a candidate.
Mbeere North isn’t the only battlefield. Other looming mini-polls in Ugunja, Banisa and Magarini, alongside four ward contests, will collectively shape Kenya’s political landscape. The performance of various factions, especially Gachagua’s potential new party and other formations, will serve as a crucial prelude to the 2027 elections. How UDA fares across these elections will indicate whether Ruto’s broader support base is intact or if emerging power centers are beginning to shift allegiances.
While Mbeere North alone may not be the ultimate test of Gachagua’s influence, its outcome will certainly provide a snapshot of where the political winds in Mount Kenya are blowing. If Gachagua pulls off a win, he will have made a powerful statement about his relevance in the region. If Ruto’s candidate carries the day, the President will cement his hold on the Mountain, at least for now. Either way, this by-election is set to be one of the most watched political events of the year with far-reaching implications for 2027.
Let me know if you need further edits or refinements.
