By Billy Mijungu
What unfolded in Kisumu during the distribution of the Nyota Funds was politically revealing and, frankly, troubling for ODM. Fresh from the morning engagements, Oburu Odinga appeared to concede far too early by stating that the only position with genuine security of tenure would not be demanded by ODM.
The implication was stark: ODM would not contest the executive safeguard that H.E. William Ruto himself used as a pathway to power. Treating that issue as non-urgent is a strategic failure of the highest order.
History matters here. At the height of the UhuRuto fallout, the Deputy President’s office was the single most critical shield for William Ruto. Without that constitutional security of tenure, Ruto would never have survived politically, let alone ascended to the presidency. Even during the tense moments of the 2022 election results announcement, it was Ruto’s own security detail that reinforced arrangements at Bomas to ensure the process was concluded. Power is never accidental; it is always protected.
For ODM to casually forgo contestation over the Deputy President’s position signals either a grave misreading of power dynamics or a worrying lack of interest in the 2032 succession. You cannot forgive the very office that guarantees continuity, leverage, and visibility, then claim to be serious about future state power.
The contestation over the Deputy President’s position is more likely to split ODM than the much-discussed Orengo–Sifuna–Babu factional dynamics. This is because it strikes at the core of ambition, succession, and regional balance. Yet paradoxically, that same position could be ODM’s strongest bargaining chip. Properly negotiated, it could be used to entice Kalonzo Musyoka into a genuinely structured broad-based arrangement, rather than symbolic inclusion.
Negotiations are not acts of goodwill; they are contests of leverage. Giving up before real negotiations begin is not compromise, it is surrender.
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