By Habil Onyango
President William Ruto stole his way into Homa Bay County, the bedroom of the late Raila Amolo Odinga, by initiating some projects in the county and engaging Governor Gladys Wanga in fish frying at the shores of Lake Victoria.
And now, Homa Bay County, the land of endless potential, is uniquely turning out as the battleground for the broad-based arrangement partners, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
While Homa Bay County is the political bedroom of the ODM party, curiously UDA of President William Ruto has offices in every corner of the county.
Homa Bay, the home of the former and current party chairman John Mbadi and Governor Gladys Wanga respectively, has for decades failed to have party offices.
ODM’s declining power base in Homa Bay
After the 2013 general elections, ODM faced a serious challenge for the gubernatorial seat in 2017, when Governor Cyprian Awiti controversially won the election against Independent candidate Oyugi Magwanga. Awiti won by 224,863 votes against Magwanga’s 174,235.
Awiti’s election was nullified by the High Court and Court of Appeal but survived at the Supreme Court.
In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Raila forced a Wanga-Magwanga ticket against former Nairobi Governor Dr Evans Odhiambo Kidero. Wanga won by 244,599 votes against Kidero’s 154,182 votes.
From the above two elections, it could be a warning that ODM may be disadvantaged in the 2027 general elections with the absence of the Raila factor, and the party’s gubernatorial candidate will have an uphill task.
In the last general election, ODM swept all the elective posts including the Governor, the Senator, Woman Representative, and MPs, and 32 out of 40 elected Members of the County Assembly (MCAs) sailed through on the party ticket.
Wanga will face off with Magwanga in the 2027 general election, and it may be a tricky juggling act for the governor to successfully defend the seat.
The bedroom
Homa Bay town historically hosted Raila’s last countrywide rallies before the final one in Nairobi.
In 2018, Raila held his final rally in the county ahead of his planned mock swearing-in as the People’s President in Nairobi, in what he termed as his “last supper with his supporters.”
The demise of Raila and wrangling in the party is painting a worrying situation in the county, with the UDA team also upping the game.
UDA inroads
UDA has made sizeable inroads in Homa Bay and is likely to give ODM candidates and other candidates a run for their money.
“We have established offices in various parts of the county, besides recruiting members and establishing structures in the county with key figures,” said Silas Jakakimba, a parliamentary aspirant for Suba North.
The fear factor by some of the ODM leaders in the county could be the reason for the call for zoning, while others have been opposed to the proposal.
Wanga and Homa Bay MP Opondo Kaluma, the proponents of zoning, argue that in order to support William Ruto’s re-election, UDA should not field any of their candidates in regions currently held by ODM.
Further, they are demanding that in the agreement, the positions must be divided on a 50-50 basis, whereby they demand for the Deputy President position if Ruto vies for the Presidency.
According to the two leaders, Homa Bay remains an ODM zone, and they will not allow any other political party to gain ground in the region.
Wanga has declared that the county and the broader Nyanza region are ODM zones and will not tolerate opposition, specifically warning against UDA infiltration.
Wanga insisted that any coalition agreement with UDA must include a clear zoning formula that guarantees ODM a fair and respectable number of seats in regions where it has strong support.
Kaluma argued that UDA should know that their negotiations to support Ruto can only be done through ODM.
“I want to tell our friends in UDA, if you think you can have members here in Homa Bay, it will take away votes from the President,” Kaluma warned.
“In fact, if you want to destroy our relationship, try fronting anyone other than ODM here in Homa Bay,” he said.
Already, party officials led by Silas Jakakimba, who is the county branch treasurer, have declared that they will field all candidates from the Governor down to all MCA positions in the county.
But Langata MP Phelix Jalango recently said Jakakimba will be fried by Millie at the ballot and doesn’t see UDA winning the Suba North seat.
Cracks in ODM Homa Bay branch
In Homa Bay, the crack is widening among the party’s elected leaders, with some of them opposing the zoning agenda against their boss’s directives.
Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo is opposing it, saying it undermines ODM dominance and democracy.
Millie has welcomed competition and has challenged her opponents to the ballot.
However, there are fears among some of the elected leaders that they might lose the party ticket should they heed the zoning call.
They claim Wanga has her “preferred” candidates and lineup in the county, which will deny them free and fair nominations.
According to Magwanga, who recently resigned as the Homa Bay Deputy Governor, Wanga already has her own lineup against a number of elected leaders in the county.
