By Hope Barbra
The drum of war over political zoning, which threatens to scuttle away the pre-election coalition between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), is a reality driven by survival instinct.
Political reality is fast dawning among ODM luminaries over the deeper inroads the UDA counterpart has made in their strongholds. Coupled with UDA’s financial might, leaders now fear ODM may lose seats in nearly all of its strongholds to UDA.
The remarks by ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga’s brother, Robert Nyasuna, whom she is grooming to take over the Muhoroni parliamentary seat, opened the doors to how fear, anxiety and panic run deep in the party’s veins.
Nyasuna, speaking during a TV interview, said ODM was fighting for survival from UDA infiltration in ODM strongholds and may be wiped out if zoning was not taken into consideration.
“If UDA was to be allowed to field candidates in our zones, they will first go for our best candidates. With the best candidates, they will easily win,” he said.
Nyasuna said apart from picking the best, UDA will sponsor the candidates against ODM, and this will be a death knell to the party.
“They will give them money, and they will wipe ODM out. I am telling you, they will wipe us out of existence,” he said.
Nyasuna said ODM will lose even in Homa Bay, where his sister is the governor and will be defending her seat against her former deputy Oyugi Magwanga, among others.
“They will wipe us out even in Homa Bay and even in Kisumu. We are now fighting for survival, and that is why zoning is an irreducible minimum demand at the negotiation table,” he said.
Finally, the political reality of a life without Raila Amollo Odinga in the 2027 general election is dawning on the ‘pampered babies’, and now they are clutching to the hope of zoning or perishing.
The ODM faction of Linda Ground lieutenants, who for successive elections relied on Raila’s anointment to win elections, now face a date with destiny.
The demise of Raila has radically changed the political landscape, and the majority who relied on the former ODM party leader for direct nomination have gone into panic mode and now want zoning of ODM strongholds to survive.
The proponents of zoning, who had earlier been lobbying for the Deputy President slot in the ODM-UDA pre-election coalition, have abandoned that debate and have now placed zoning as a priority in the negotiations.
Wanga has declared that Homa Bay and the broader Nyanza region are ODM zones and will not tolerate opposition, specifically warning against UDA infiltration.
Wanga insisted that in any coalition agreement, UDA must include a clear zoning formula that guarantees ODM a fair and respectable number of seats in regions where it has strong support.
“ODM will not be a ‘junior affiliate’ to UDA, and we expect a 50-50 power-sharing structure where ODM controls its traditional strongholds,” she insisted.
Kaluma said: “I want to tell our friends in UDA, if you think you can have members here in Homa Bay, it will take away votes from the President. In fact, if you want to destroy our relationship, try fronting anyone other than ODM here in Homa Bay.”
Alego MP Sam Atandi said there was no negotiation over zoning and will not allow UDA to plant candidates in Nyanza.
“We are not going to allow UDA to plant a candidate here in Muhoroni. All our party strongholds are reserved for ODM, nothing less or more,” he said.
UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar has dismissed ODM’s zoning demands, saying the UDA party will field candidates across the country.
The UDA Secretary General argued that if ODM is confident in its strongholds, it should allow other parties to field candidates in those areas.
“ODM says the Coast is their stronghold; we are telling them the Coast belongs to the people of the Coast, let us compete fairly. And they claim that even if some of us are allowed to vie for seats, we cannot defeat them in their ODM zones. If you have that kind of courage and confidence, then what problem is the issue with us contesting for those seats?” Omar questioned.
Interestingly, a section of Linda Ground members have opposed zoning, saying it stifles democracy and negates the spirit of competition.
Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo has maintained that ODM was the most popular party in the country and the call for zoning was retrogressive and uncalled for.
“There has been a lot of discussion on the issue of zoning. My personal position is that ODM is a popular party. We have declared ODM as a popular and the largest party in the country; how come we demand zoning?” she asked.
She said ODM has managed to successfully front candidates without any formal form of zoning, perhaps maybe a silent agreement like in Nairobi.
“There has never been a need for zoning for ODM. Let us be honest: none of us is Raila Amolo Odinga. We need to listen to the public. The public is keen that we show what we have done for the public. When we start pushing an agenda of zoning, it means we put our personal interest ahead of our constituents,” she said.
Millie said elected leaders should not be scared of competition if they know they have delivered on their mandate.
“If I have worked for my constituency, I should not fear meeting my opponents. So when we talk about zoning, we seem to be seeking favorable treatment. Let us reconsider the issue of zoning,” she said.
