By Anderson Ojwang
After the death of Tom Joseph Mboya on 5th July 1969, a new political dispensation of a single basket mentality emerged. The single basket mentality was birthed when the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga became the sole leader of the community, bringing Southern Nyanza, which was under Mboya before his death, into his grasp. In Oginga’s single political basket, the Luo community became alienated from the government and became the face of the country’s opposition and violence.
For 57 years, the community remained in the opposition and became the perennial losers in the presidential contests, confining the community to the miseries of the opposition while other communities celebrated and dined at the altar of the national cake. The recent events in Nyanza and the concerns expressed by Kisumu Women Rep Ruth Odinga that aspirants no longer identify with the ODM party were a pregnant pointer to the moment of change.
The collapse of the economy
The Luo community at independence was the pillar of the country’s economy, from education, agriculture, and industries to human resources, among others. From the Tom Mboya and Oginga education airlifts, Nyanza became the fulcrum of the country’s economy. But the fallout between founding president, the late Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, and his deputy, Oginga, and his subsequent resignation, confined the community to marginalisation, demonstrations, and a collapsed economy. Subsequent attempts by the community to return to government through handshakes are yet to fully yield any meaningful potential.
Pluralism
The 1992 repealing of Section 2A of the Constitution ushered in pluralism and witnessed the first multi-party election. While other communities elected leaders on various political formations, the Luo community solidly voted for Oginga and his FORD-K. The community was once again confined to the opposition and street demonstrations, resulting in severe loss of life.
The demise of Oginga partly opened the community to a new political dispensation when the then FORD-K Vice-Chairman James Orengo and the party’s Director of Elections, Raila Odinga, opened the community to a double political mentality. But in the 1997 general elections, with Raila as a presidential candidate on the now-defunct NDP, the community returned to a single-party mentality, save for Ugenya constituency, where Orengo retained his seat.
Branded
With Raila at the political helm, several attempts by various political leaders, including Kisumu Governor Anyang Nyong’o, Orengo, former Cabinet Minister Raphael Tuju, and former Rangwe MP Shem Ochuodho, among others, to unlock and open the community to other political formations were blocked and rebuffed with canes and violence. The mantra that “odwa e not achiel” (Our house is one) continued to rope the community into a single political basket mentality and to opposition miseries, and in all the subsequent general elections, the community has become synonymous with the opposition. Orengo, Nyong’o, and others, deflated and defeated, retreated to the bandwagon grudgingly.
The change
The demise of Raila has opened the community to a new political dispensation: first, the death of a single basket mentality, and secondly, the obliteration of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the once-dominant party in the region. The recent declaration by the ODM party leader, Dr Oburu Oginga, that he will defend his Siaya senatorial seat, closed the doors to ODM from presenting a presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections. This will be the first time since 2007 that the party will not present a presidential candidate. The ODM constitution provides that the party leader is the automatic presidential candidate. Orengo, the Siaya Governor, is currently positioning himself for a second stab at the presidency.
Orengo’s game plan
According to political analyst Erick Okeyo, there is no way the Luo community will not be at the table of presidential negotiations, both at the opposition table and Ruto’s altar. “We cannot afford to play second fiddle in the presidential table. That is why we must have Orengo to run for presidency to represent the interest of the community,” he argued.
Okeyo said the community cannot stay in a single basket any longer while other communities spread risk and eventually end up the winners. “In 2022 general elections, Mt Kenya community spread the risks by having two candidates as the deputies to the Raila and William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza Alliance. They won on both ends. From the Azimio, the community received nominations and the government, they harvested heavily,” he argued.
Okeyo is of the view that the Oburu wing should also be encouraged to negotiate with President Ruto, and whichever side wins, the Luo community shall have won. Yesterday, Orengo led the first anniversary of the Gen Z victims and has been instrumental in the formation of the Linda Mwananchi faction in the ODM.
The parallels
Currently, Nyanza is witnessing two political parallels: Linda Ground of Oburu and Orengo’s Linda Mwananchi. The two political formations are tearing apart the old single basket mentality and opening the region up for other suitors. Oburu, at an ODM rally in Kisumu, tried to evoke Raila’s name in the hope of holding on to the single-party basket mentality.
“If the party dies, the brother, Raila could come back to haunt the community and the people,” he said.
But the Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Orengo have destabilised the status quo. Orengo has constantly rattled Dr Oburu and ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga’s hold on the Luo leadership with a series of rallies and meet-the-people tours. The recent successful Linda Mwananchi rally in Kisumu rattled and changed the political status quo, throwing Linda Ground into a panic and desperation mode. Linda Ground used Sh200M to mobilise for the rally, while Orengo’s rally was organic, as he continues to receive warm receptions across Nyanza on his tours.
At the Kisumu rally, Dr Oburu told the crowd that he was ready to quit as the ODM party leader to avoid dividing the Luo community, to the chagrin and dismay of his allies.
“An ok ahero gima ilaro ma pogo oganda (I don’t like things people fight over that divides the community). An adwaro ni gimora amora ka oponi an ema de apog oganda to ayie weyo (If it’s me who is bringing division in the community, I am ready to quit). Ka pon ni an ema de apog ogandawa to ayie weyo (If it’s me the cause of division then I am ready to quit).”
Advocates of the single basket mentality
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has maintained that the community will remain united in ODM and the broad-based government, and support President Ruto’s re-election. “We are going to move forward as one united people. We will walk together as members of ODM party and as people belonging to one this government the broad based government. This unity means a lot to our people,” Wandayi said.
Finally, a new dawn in Luo Land. The end of an era and a new chapter opens.
