By Billy Mijungu
Although the circumstances differ, the spirit of the moment feels familiar. When Jaramogi Oginga Odinga died, Raila Odinga rose from Kibera MP intending to take over Ford Kenya. He did not succeed, but the tension and energy of that period created the political force that ultimately shaped his rise as the undisputed leader of the Luo community.
Raila later resigned from Ford Kenya and formed the National Development Party. In doing so, he walked away from his father’s loyalists and built his own political identity. In 1994 he had limited resources, but he had the people, and that bond became his greatest power.
Today the script mirrors that era in striking ways. Winnie Odinga, almost at the same midterm point when her father left Ford Kenya, has ignited a leadership debate within ODM. She may not need to resign or form a new vehicle because the terrain is more favourable. The family possesses strong financial capacity and maintains structural control of the party.
Another circumstance shaping today’s politics is the necessity for ODM to pull together with clear purpose. For the opposition to meaningfully challenge President William Ruto, ODM must unify. Ironically, the President has become the star player in today’s ODM politics. His dominance, political maneuvers and influence shape ODM’s internal alignments more than any internal factor.
Winnie must also understand a deeper complexity of this moment: today’s ODM troops are divided between Government largesse and Odm Odinga loyalty. It is a party torn between survival and principle. That division defines the battlefield she must walk into. Her father’s loyalists will not naturally want her to replace him ahead of themselves. That is the nature of political inheritance. She will need to dismantle the old guard, weaken their networks and deliberately build new power centres if she hopes to emerge as the true Queenpin of the movement.
It is clear she has stepped into the leadership contest, and Oburu Odinga is guiding a transition unlike the era when Wamalwa Kijana took over Ford Kenya.
Raila avoided National Delegates Conferences after an attempted hijack of ODM witnessed by Morgan Tsvangirai. This remains a valuable lesson for Winnie. NDCs can become unpredictable. Build momentum, cause a storm if necessary, but secure leadership through the National Governing Council and the ODM Central Committee.
History has shown that delegates meetings can quickly descend into chaos, as Ford Kenya’s Thika meeting once did. The more things change, the more they remain the same.
