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The making of the opposition Pentagon: The table and the game plan

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By Anderson Ojwang

The return of a Pentagon similar to the 2007 Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) one is in the offing in the united opposition to face off with President William Ruto.

With 14 months to the next general elections, the opposition is building a Pentagon to face President William Ruto in the 2027 presidential election, and the group promises a battle of the decade.

In the mix and at the table of opposition negotiation forming the Pentagon are leaders representing specific regions and interests.

The team

At the table is the Wiper leader Dr Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, the current leader of the Azimio La Umoja Coalition, who represents the Lower Eastern region.

In the mix is the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the face of Mt Kenya in the negotiation. Currently, Gachagua’s DCP party is the most popular party in the Mt Kenya region.

Joining Gachagua’s corner are leaders from the region, Martha Karua and JB Muturi, and other fringe parties from Mt Kenya, with the former Deputy President at the lead.

Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Dr Fred Matiang’i represents the party and the Gusii community at the negotiation table. Currently, the Jubilee Party leader is former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is a critic of President William Ruto’s regime. President Uhuru, in the 2022 general elections, supported the Azimio La Umoja presidential candidate, the late Raila Odinga, against his deputy, Ruto.

The constant in Kenya’s politics from pre-independence and post-independence, the Luo community, nearly missed out on the table.

The broad-based alliance and the proposed pre-election alliance between President Ruto and the Dr Oburu Oginga-led ODM alienated the community from the opposition table.

But the emergence of Linda Mwananchi and the declaration by Siaya Governor James Orengo as the de facto leader of ODM and his growing political influence not only in Nyanza but nationally returned the community to being among the Pentagon members.

Orengo will be leading the Luo community at the negotiation table and is already receiving support from the community in his new political dispensation.

Orengo also recently declared his presidential intent in the 2027 general elections.

The ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna will be representing the Luhya community and the Gen Z block at the Pentagon table. The move by the Oburu-led faction to sack Sifuna from the post catapulted him to an emerging political significance in the country.

Sifuna also enjoys the support of the Gen Z, who view him as the representation of their ideal at the negotiation table.

The Luhya declaration

On Monday, leaders from the Luhya community in the opposition converged in Trans Nzoia in a meeting hosted by Governor George Natembeya and included Sifuna, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, among others.

The leaders announced the homecoming party for Sifuna and the unveiling by the community to contest the country’s presidency.

Natembeya said: “We called this meeting to consult and discuss politics and the future of Western Kenya as we head to next year’s general elections,” he said.

Natembeya said it was incumbent upon the Luhya community to discuss the future of the community and not relegate it to outsiders.

“We have started to plan our politics, and today we have agreed to start the journey with our people. We will have a meeting in Trans Nzoia on 25th July and a homecoming the next day on 26th in Bungoma,” he said.

He said the Bungoma homecoming rally will be used to unveil Sifuna’s presidential intent and undergo blessings from the community elders and leadership.

“We will be in Bungoma for a homecoming. All leaders will converge in Bungoma on that day. In Bungoma, the elders will bless our son, Sifuna, to go out in search of the presidency,” he said.

Natembeya said the community leaders will then embark on campaigns in all 38 constituencies to rally support for Sifuna.

“We will have meetings in every constituency in the Luhya community, while Sifuna will be traversing the country. We will traverse 38 constituencies in Western Kenya. Our MPs are in Ruto’s camp, so we declare war on them. We will be in one political party in next year’s election,” he said.

Sifuna thanked the community and the leaders for standing by him in his political quest.

“We were together in a 10-hour meeting with these leaders. I want to thank Natembeya. He has brought us together to speak and consult. I need Natembeya in my journey. I will not let you down. We are coming home to Bungoma, and I have traversed this country. They want leadership change. I am confident,” he said.

Kalonzo’s moment

Kalonzo is a man of the moment, as the stars seem to be lining and aligning towards him. At the end of the tunnel, there is light.

It is becoming crystal clear day by day that Kalonzo could be the probable presidential flag bearer in the 2027 contest against President William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza.

And within the government ranks, President Ruto’s allies have offered and extended an olive branch to Kalonzo for a political handshake ahead of the August 10th 2027 general elections.

Democratic Party leader JB Muturi has declared his support for Kalonzo as the preferred presidential candidate.

“We don’t have a presidential candidate because we fear that when we name the person, we don’t know what William Ruto will do to him. We must stop being cowards and tell Kenyans our presidential candidate. If it is not me, then it is Dr Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka as the flag bearer,” he declared.

Gachagua has been leaning towards Kalonzo and has been traversing Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern together on several political trips.

He recently said Mt Kenya will have to sacrifice the presidential and Deputy President seats in the 2027 general elections to ensure President Ruto is not re-elected.

He is currently in Wamunyoro in a political conclave meeting with Mt Kenya residents for 45 days before declaring his next political move.

Before the conclave, he had committed to leading campaigns for the candidate the opposition will settle on in order to make President Ruto a one-term president.

Sudi’s overtures

President Ruto’s confidant, Kapsaret MP Oscar Sudi, while in Ukambani, extended an olive branch to Kalonzo to join the government and be allocated a position.

“Tell Kalonzo he is now an elder. Let him join the government for five years and work for the Kamba community,” he said.

Sudi said for several election cycles, the Kamba community has remained in the opposition, and it was time to join the government and be made president in future.

“Kalonzo has wasted the Kambas’ time for a long time. Let him forget about betting and chancing. Let him come here. Even if we are to make him president, we cannot do that when he is outside,” he said.

The reality is that President Ruto will have to face off with opposition talent, and the script is becoming clearer every day regarding the presidential candidate and the running mate.

EAC Moves Closer to Political Confederation After Rwanda Consultations

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The East African Community (EAC) has successfully concluded national consultations on the drafting of the Constitution of the East African Political Confederation in the Republic of Rwanda, following extensive stakeholder engagements held in Kigali, Huye, Nyagatare and Rubavu.

The EAC Constitutional Experts paid a courtesy call on the President of the Republic of Rwanda, H.E. Paul Kagame, who reaffirmed Rwanda’s commitment to the East African integration agenda and underscored the importance of sustaining momentum towards the realisation of the East African Political Confederation.

President Kagame observed that the aspirations of East African citizens continue to demonstrate strong support for deeper regional integration and encouraged the Constitutional Experts to develop practical and forward-looking recommendations that would facilitate progress towards the Political Confederation.

He further emphasised the need to address existing challenges affecting regional integration and thanked the Constitutional Experts for their commitment in undertaking the integral task of developing a constitutional framework for the Political Confederation.

The two-week consultations, conducted by the EAC Constitutional Experts, brought together representatives from government institutions, Parliament, the Judiciary, academia, the private sector, civil society organisations, youth, women, persons with disabilities, faith-based organisations, political parties and the media to gather views and aspirations that will inform the drafting of the Constitution of the East Asian Political Confederation.

The Chairperson of the EAC Constitutional Experts Team and Chief Justice Emeritus of Uganda, Rt. Hon. Benjamin Odoki, noted that the Rwanda consultations generated substantive views that will be instrumental in shaping the drafting of the Constitution of the East African Political Confederation.

“What stands out from the Rwanda consultations is the depth and diversity of views expressed, which will be critical in shaping a practical and forward-looking constitutional framework for the East African Political Confederation,” Hon. Odoki noted.

Rt. Hon. Odoki further noted that following consultations in each Partner State, the Constitutional Experts will prepare a report capturing the views, recommendations and aspirations expressed by stakeholders. The reports are subsequently submitted through established EAC structures for consideration by the EAC Heads of State as part of the broader process of developing the Constitution of the East African Political Confederation.

On his part, the EAC Deputy Secretary General in charge of Infrastructure, Productive, Social and Political Sectors, Hon. Aguer Ariik Malueth, expressed appreciation to the Government and people of Rwanda for their active participation and constructive contributions throughout the process. He reaffirmed the Community’s commitment to pushing for completion of consultations in the remaining EAC Partner States.

“The EAC remains committed to ensuring that the consultation process is inclusive, participatory and reflective of the aspirations of all East Africans. The insights gathered from the Partner States will contribute to the development of a constitutional framework that reflects the collective priorities, interests and ambitions of the peoples of East Africa,” he said.

The East African Political Confederation is the transitional model towards the ultimate goal of a Political Federation and represents the fourth and final pillar of the EAC integration process, following the Customs Union, Common Market and Monetary Union.

Kalonzo Musyoka: A man of the moment

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By Anderson Ojwang

Dr Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka is a man of the moment. The stars seem to be lining and aligning towards him. At the end of the tunnel, there is light.

Kenya’s last Vice President before the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution and “mtu wa kupitia kati kati” finds himself at the heart of the country’s political conversation. Kalonzo mania in the making.

In the united opposition, it is becoming crystal clear day by day that Kalonzo could be the probable presidential flag bearer in the 2027 contest against President William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza.

And within the government ranks, President Ruto’s allies have offered and extended an olive branch to Kalonzo for a political handshake ahead of the August 10th 2027 general elections.

Currently, Kalonzo is turning out as the bride that suitors – the opposition is considering him as the flag bearer while the government is also trying to woo him to the fold.

Muturi

Democratic Party leader JB Muturi said it was time for the united opposition to name the presidential candidate and stop acting under fear.

“We don’t have a presidential candidate because we fear that when we name the person, we don’t know what William Ruto will do to him. What has Ruto not said about Dr Fred Matiang’i? He said he sleeps, and since he came here, I have not seen him sleep. He has said everything about all of us. He even said I am incompetent,” he said.

He said it was time the opposition stopped the notion and mentality that they were playing the card of the opposition candidate close to their chest.

Muturi said the decision by former President the late Daniel Moi to delay naming the Kanu presidential candidate was what contributed to its split.

“You want to say Ruto doesn’t know Kalonzo, Eugene Wamalwa, Matiang’i, Muturi, Rigathi Gachagua, and Martha Karua? What can he do? Why are we being cowards? Let us stop this thing that we are playing some cards close to our chest. This is politics,” he said.

Muturi declared his support for Kalonzo Musyoka to be the opposition presidential candidate.

“I want to say this. In Kamulu, before the Apostle Musili and the entire clergy, if it is not me, I am never worried. We must stop being cowards and tell Kenyans our presidential candidate. If it is not me, then it is Dr Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka as the flag bearer,” he declared.

But he said his declaration was a personal one, and other members of the outfit have personal choices.

“That doesn’t mean others do not have their say. We are not divided, and we must bring to a stop Ruto’s wrong perception of the opposition. Let us speak the truth and what is in our minds,” he said.

Gachagua has been leaning towards Kalonzo and has been traversing Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern together on several political trips.

He recently said Mt Kenya will have to sacrifice the presidential and deputy president seats in the 2027 general elections to ensure President Ruto is not re-elected.

He is currently in Wamunyoro in a political conclave meeting with Mt Kenya residents for 45 days before declaring his next political move.

Before the conclave, he had committed to leading campaigns for the candidate the opposition will settle on in order to make President Ruto a one-term president.

Sudi’s overtures

President Ruto’s confidant, Kapsaret MP Oscar Sudi, while in Ukambani, extended an olive branch to Kalonzo to join the government and be allocated a position.

“Tell Kalonzo he is now an elder. Let him join the government for five years and work for the Kamba community,” he said.

Sudi said for several election cycles, the Kamba community has remained in the opposition, and it was time to join the government and be made president in future.

“Kalonzo has wasted the Kambas’ time for a long time. Let him forget about betting and chancing. Let him come here. Even if we are to make him president, we cannot do that when he is outside,” he said.

Sudi said the opposition cannot beat President Ruto and that the President will win resoundingly.

“If you weigh, do you think there is anybody who can defeat William Ruto in 2027? Do we look like a Wantam people?” he said.

Sudi said Kalonzo would be rewarded with a political position should he join the government.

“Tell Kalonzo to come to the government and he will be given a seat and shares. Let him stop frustrating the Kambas by being in the opposition,” he said.

Sudi said for William Ruto to become president, he stayed behind President Uhuru Kenyatta’s shadows while he strategised behind the scenes.

“Kalonzo is outside the pitch where people are playing the ball. He says that he will jump over the fence and get into the pitch. You must come, practise, be given a number, and be told your position to play,” he said.

Swipe at Gachagua

Sudi took his battle with Gachagua a notch higher, wondering why Kalonzo was associating with the impeached Deputy President.

“Let me ask, can you imagine Kalonzo is walking with that man of quarter term? How can he walk with a ‘mad man’? Can you accept Riggy to lead the nation? That is like auctioning the country. A quarter term. He failed to protect the Deputy President seat,” he said.

Sudi said he played a prominent role in Gachagua’s appointment as Deputy President.

“I was among the people who helped Rigathi Gachagua become Deputy President. Ask him if I am lying, but he is a ‘mad man’. When he was Deputy President, did he even talk of government projects? He is a tribalist,” he said.

From whatever side of the coin, it is a silver lining for Kalonzo Musyoka. The time may be ripe, and the moment is his.

Siaya County budget in crisis over development fund

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Western Insight Newsroom
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By Correspondent

Siaya County is staring at one of its most severe financial crises in recent years, with nearly the entire 2026/27 budget already tied up in salaries, operational costs and unpaid bills, leaving virtually no money for new development projects.

The stark warning, issued by Francis Otiato, Member of the County Assembly representing Yimbo East Ward and a member of the Budget Committee and also Chair of the Legal and Justice Committee, painted a grim picture of a county government struggling under the weight of unrealistic revenue projections and mounting financial obligations.

Speaking while explaining the county’s budget, Otiato sought to dispel public misconceptions surrounding the approximately Sh11 billion budget, saying the headline figure masks an increasingly fragile financial reality.

“People hear that Siaya has been allocated a Sh11 billion budget and assume there is plenty of money for development. That is not the case,” Otiato said, explaining that almost all of the money has already been committed before the financial year even begins.

According to Otiato, the bulk of the county’s budget, more than Sh8 billion, comes from equitable share allocations from the National Government.

The county expects to generate approximately Sh1.1 billion from its Own-Source Revenue, while another Sh1.5 billion is projected through the Facility Improvement Fund (FIF) and Appropriation in Aid, bringing internally generated and supplementary revenues to about Sh2.6 billion. However, Otiato admitted the county’s revenue collection history raises serious doubts about these projections.

Last financial year, Siaya projected to raise Sh3.1 billion in own-source revenue after promising to fully optimise its revenue streams. Instead, actual collections fell to less than Sh1 billion, leaving the county unable to finance projects it had already budgeted for.

This shortfall resulted in a fresh burden of Sh2.1 billion in pending bills arising from the last financial year’s commitments.

These come in addition to approximately Sh1.8 billion in historical pending bills inherited from the previous county administration.

Otiato revealed that mandatory expenditures have effectively swallowed nearly the entire county budget before any development spending can be considered.

Personal emoluments alone account for approximately Sh4.7 billion, while operations and maintenance including procurement of drugs, hospital supplies, and the day-to-day running of county services consume another Sh3.5 billion. Combined, the two expenditure items account for roughly Sh8.2 billion.

When the Sh2.1 billion required to settle last year’s unfunded commitments is added, nearly Sh10.3 billion of the county’s roughly Sh11 billion budget has already been committed, leaving only about Sh700 million available for development.

According to Otiato, even that balance disappears almost immediately. The County Assembly has earmarked approximately Sh190 million for Assembly development projects, while the 30 wards have each been allocated Sh24 million, translating to Sh720 million for ward development. Together, the two allocations total approximately Sh910 million, already exceeding the available development budget.

He warned that the implication is that once Assembly development and ward projects are financed, none of the county’s ten executive departments will have resources to undertake meaningful development projects during the entire financial year.

The budget shortfall, he said, also threatens to lock Siaya out of hundreds of millions of shillings in donor and conditional grants that require counterpart funding from the county.

One such programme is the Financing Locally-Led Climate Action (FLOCA) initiative, where the county must contribute Sh77 million to unlock approximately Sh217 million in climate resilience funding.

Similarly, under the Kenya Devolution Support Programme (KDSP), the county is required to provide about Sh100 million in counterpart funding, alongside other commitments, to access more than Sh350 million earmarked for health infrastructure development.

According to Otiato, the current budget provides neither allocation, meaning Siaya risks losing substantial external development funding.

The situation extends to agricultural programmes such as KELCOP and NAV-CDP, which also require county counterpart funding before grants can be accessed.

Otiato cautioned against balancing the budget by inflating own-source revenue projections, warning that the same approach failed during the previous financial year.

“County officials could increase projected revenue on paper to create room for development spending, but if actual collections once again fall short, projects will stall and pending bills will continue to accumulate,” he said.

“The danger of running an exaggerated own-source revenue target is that the projects will eventually stall because the money will simply not be collected,” he warned.

Residents, he said, should prepare for a financial year focused largely on completing projects awarded in the previous budget and settling outstanding contractor payments rather than launching new initiatives.

Only a handful of water projects are expected to proceed, although even those are unlikely to receive full funding.

“The reality is that this financial year will largely be about settling yesterday’s obligations rather than building tomorrow’s development,” Otiato said.

Why SACCO savings should not be applied to national infrastructure development initiatives

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By Dr Nixon Bugo

The reported proposal to channel over KSh1 trillion held by Kenya’s Savings and Credit Cooperative Societies (SACCOs) into the National Infrastructure Fund through the proposed Cooperatives Bill deserves serious national debate. While the need to finance infrastructure is undisputed, the proposed mechanism raises fundamental economic and financial concerns that could undermine one of Kenya’s greatest development success stories.

For decades, SACCOs have been the engine of financial inclusion. They have succeeded where many formal financial institutions have struggled, providing affordable credit to millions of Kenyans, including teachers, civil servants, farmers, transport operators, small traders, and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). For many households and businesses, a SACCO is not simply a financial institution—it is the only reliable source of affordable credit.

The success of Kenya’s entrepreneurial economy has been built partly on this cooperative model. Thousands of businesses have been started, expanded, and sustained through SACCO financing. Unlike commercial banks, SACCOs understand their members, offer lower borrowing costs, and require fewer barriers to accessing credit.

Redirecting a substantial share of these members’ savings into long-term government infrastructure projects fundamentally changes the role of SACCOs.

Infrastructure investments are, by nature, long-term assets. Roads, railways, dams, housing projects, and energy investments often take years before generating returns. SACCO deposits, however, are largely short-term liabilities. Members expect to access their savings when emergencies arise or when they need loans for business expansion, school fees, medical expenses, or other urgent family obligations.

This creates a classic asset-liability mismatch. One must ask a simple economic question: what is the logic of taking relatively liquid funds that members may require at short notice and locking them into long-term infrastructure investments whose returns may take decades to materialise?

The consequences could be severe.

Reduced liquidity means SACCOs would have less money available for lending. As loanable funds decline, borrowing costs are likely to increase, loan approvals may slow, and access to affordable credit could become more difficult. The people most affected will not be large corporations; they will be ordinary Kenyans operating small businesses, farmers financing seasonal production, and households relying on SACCO loans to meet essential expenses.

This would effectively reverse decades of progress in financial inclusion.

At a time when Kenya is encouraging entrepreneurship, youth employment, and private sector-led growth, weakening the country’s most successful grassroots financial institutions sends contradictory policy signals. Many micro-enterprises cannot satisfy commercial bank lending requirements because of collateral constraints or higher borrowing costs. SACCOs remain their only practical source of finance.

The proposal also raises important questions about members’ rights over their own savings. SACCO deposits belong to members, not the Government. They represent personal savings accumulated over many years to provide financial security during life’s uncertainties. Kenyans save with the expectation that their money will remain available when needed—not that it will be committed to projects over which they have little control and from which they may derive no direct or immediate benefit.

Infrastructure development remains essential for national growth. However, infrastructure financing should be matched with appropriate sources of long-term capital. Governments around the world finance infrastructure through instruments specifically designed for that purpose, including infrastructure bonds, public-private partnerships, development finance institutions, pension funds operating under clear investment mandates, sovereign wealth funds, blended finance, and innovative capital market products.

The National Infrastructure Fund should therefore be strengthened through innovative financing mechanisms that attract voluntary long-term investment, rather than relying on compulsory or indirect access to SACCO members’ savings.

Most importantly, confidence is the foundation upon which every financial institution operates. Once members begin to doubt whether their savings will remain readily available or whether their SACCO can continue meeting their borrowing needs, that confidence can quickly erode. Restoring it is often far more difficult than preserving it.

Kenya’s SACCO movement is internationally recognised as one of the strongest cooperative sectors in Africa. It has empowered millions, supported enterprise development, expanded financial inclusion, and strengthened household resilience. Public policy should build upon this success—not weaken it.

Without robust safeguards, voluntary participation, adequate liquidity protections, and full transparency, the proposed framework risks becoming the final blow to affordable credit for low-income households and micro-enterprises. The ultimate cost would not merely be reduced SACCO lending; it would be slower enterprise growth, fewer employment opportunities, increased borrowing costs, and diminished economic resilience among the very citizens who have carried Kenya’s economy through difficult times.

National development should never come at the expense of the institutions that have enabled millions of Kenyans to participate in it. The challenge is not whether Kenya should finance infrastructure—it must—but whether it should do so by compromising the country’s most successful model of grassroots finance. On both economic and public policy grounds, there are better options.

The writer is an International Innovative Finance Expert.

Kenya and Africa’s Climate Finance Challenge Is No Longer Just Money. It Is Readiness.

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Western Insight Newsroom
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By Olendo Simon Okola
Founder, Agenda Beyond Borders | PhD Candidate in Project Finance and Climate Finance

Kenya has become one of Africa’s most visible voices in climate action. From renewable energy leadership to climate diplomacy, carbon market conversations, county climate change funds, and community-level adaptation efforts, the country has shown that climate ambition is not lacking.

But ambition alone will not unlock the scale of finance Kenya and Africa need.

The real question is no longer only whether climate finance exists. The question is whether Kenyan and African institutions are ready to absorb, structure, manage, verify, and scale that finance.

Across Kenya, counties, NGOs, community-based organisations, private firms, and youth-led initiatives are developing climate ideas. These include climate-smart agriculture, clean cooking, water resilience, agroforestry, renewable energy, waste management, green jobs, and nature-based solutions. Yet many of these ideas remain underfunded because they are not fully packaged as bankable, measurable, and investment-ready projects.

This is the missing link in Kenya’s climate finance journey.

Climate vulnerability explains why Kenya needs finance. But investment readiness explains why capital should flow.

Donors, development finance institutions, carbon buyers, climate funds, and private investors are asking deeper questions. Is there a credible project pipeline? Is there a strong monitoring, reporting and verification system? Can the project prove its impact? Are risks clearly assessed? Is there a financial model? Are safeguards in place? Can counties and implementing partners deliver and report results?

These are no longer technical details. They now determine whether climate projects receive funding.

For Kenya, the county level is especially important. Since climate impacts are experienced locally, counties must move beyond broad climate plans and develop finance-ready project pipelines. A county climate-smart agriculture project, for example, should clearly show the target communities, adaptation benefits, cost structure, implementation arrangements, gender inclusion, MRV indicators, risk mitigation, and financing strategy.

The same applies to NGOs and CBOs working in places such as Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya, Turkana, Makueni, Garissa, and other climate-vulnerable areas. Good ideas and community trust are powerful, but funders also need evidence, credible design, measurable outcomes, and strong reporting systems.

Kenya also has a strategic opportunity in Article 6 carbon markets. Projects in clean cooking, forestry, agroforestry, renewable energy, waste, and climate-smart agriculture could attract carbon finance. But carbon finance is not automatic. It requires clear project design, strong MRV, benefit-sharing, safeguards, ownership clarity, verification, and alignment with national carbon market rules.

Without these systems, carbon revenue remains an attractive promise but not a bankable income stream.

This is why Kenya must move from climate compliance to climate capital. Compliance means preparing reports, attending meetings, and aligning with policy language. Climate capital requires something deeper: credible institutions, investor-usable data, bankable projects, and measurable delivery systems.

There is also a major opportunity for Kenya’s financial sector. Banks, pension funds, insurers, SACCOs, and capital market actors can support climate-smart investments through green bonds, blended finance, sustainability-linked finance, and local currency instruments. However, domestic investors will only participate at scale when projects are properly structured and risks are clearly understood.

Kenya cannot depend on external climate finance alone. It must also mobilise domestic capital for adaptation, resilience, and green growth.

To do this, Kenya and Africa must invest in what can be called “credibility infrastructure.” This includes MRV systems, project preparation facilities, climate finance readiness assessments, ESG frameworks, green taxonomies, carbon market governance, county-level data systems, and project pipelines that are visible to investors and funders.

This is not only a government responsibility. Universities, consultants, civil society, county governments, financial institutions, private companies, and development partners all have a role to play.

At Agenda Beyond Borders, our position is that Kenya can become a regional leader in climate finance readiness if institutions combine climate ambition with project finance discipline. The next generation of climate leaders must understand both development impact and investment logic. They must know how to write fundable proposals, structure projects, measure outcomes, engage investors, and build partnerships.

COP31 and future climate negotiations should therefore be viewed not only as diplomatic events, but as market-positioning opportunities. Kenyan and African actors who arrive with credible research, strong project pipelines, readiness tools, and partnership proposals will be better placed to attract finance, partnerships, and influence.

Kenya has enough climate ambition. Africa has enough climate needs.

What both must now build is climate finance readiness.

The next climate finance breakthrough will not come from asking for money alone. It will come from proving that Kenyan and African institutions can design, structure, implement, and verify projects that deliver measurable climate impact.

The future belongs to those who can turn climate ambition into investable action.

Author Note:
Olendo Simon Okola is the Founder of Agenda Beyond Borders and a PhD Candidate in Project Planning and Management, specialising in Project Finance and Climate Finance. His work focuses on climate finance readiness, Article 6, MRV systems, ESG, green bonds, proposal development, and investment-ready project pipelines for Kenyan and African institutions.

Owili’s Quiet March to the Hill: Why Kisumu’s Deputy Governor is Emerging as the Establishment’s Safe Bet

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By James Okoth

5/7/2026

The image of Kisumu Deputy Governor Dr Mathew Owili sharing a relaxed round of golf with ODM Party Leader Dr Oburu Oginga may appear recreational at first glance. Yet, in Luo political culture, such moments are rarely accidental. They communicate trust, access, and increasingly, succession.

As the race to succeed Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o gathers momentum, Owili’s candidature is steadily evolving from speculation into one of the most formidable political projects in Kisumu County.

Unlike many aspiring governors who rely on loud declarations and early campaign machinery, Owili appears to be pursuing a different strategy – that of earning the confidence of the political establishment.

For years, political whispers have portrayed him as the preferred candidate of former ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga, owing to his technocratic approach, unwavering loyalty, and ability to execute difficult assignments without courting controversy. Whether officially endorsed or not, the perception alone has elevated his stature within ODM circles as a force to reckon with in the succession race.

Within the county government, Owili has long been regarded as Governor Nyong’o’s dependable “Mr Fix It.”

Whenever the governor is away, it is Owili who steers county operations. He has represented Kisumu at national forums, hosted foreign delegations, coordinated intergovernmental engagements, and handled sensitive administrative assignments. While others sought headlines, Owili quietly accumulated executive experience, transforming himself into one of the country’s most seasoned county administrators.

His relationship with ODM Party Leader Dr Oburu Oginga has further strengthened his political credentials.

The two share more than party affiliation. They enjoy a close personal rapport, strategic political conversations, and even a common passion for golf. Within ODM’s inner circles, Owili is increasingly viewed as one of Oburu’s trusted political sons.

Beyond Kisumu, Owili has cultivated an impressive network within the national political establishment.

His working relationships with Interior Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo, Treasury Cabinet Secretary FCPA John Mbadi, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, National Assembly Majority Leader Junet Mohamed, and even President William Ruto portray a leader capable of engaging across political divides without compromising his ideological home.

Such networks matter.

Kisumu’s next governor will require more than popularity. The county will need a leader capable of attracting national resources, negotiating with government institutions, and positioning Kisumu competitively within Kenya’s development agenda.

Perhaps Owili’s greatest political asset lies in what he represents.

At a time when Kenyan politics is increasingly driven by personalities and ethnic mobilisation, he consistently advocates for values, institutions, and functional governance. Rather than attacking opponents, he speaks about strengthening systems, improving service delivery, and building institutions that outlive individuals.

His vision reflects that philosophy.

“My vision is to devolve devolution itself. Every village must become a centre of opportunity, every ward administration must become fully functional, and every citizen should access government services without travelling to the county headquarters. We shall leverage technology to create jobs for our youth at the village level because development must begin where the people live,” says Dr Mathew Owili.

His growing stature was perhaps best illustrated during a high-profile fundraiser at Othoo SDA Church yesterday, where Treasury Cabinet Secretary FCPA John Mbadi delivered what many interpreted as an unmistakable political endorsement.

Before a congregation attended by ODM Chairperson Gladys Wanga, Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, PS Dr Raymond Omollo, Kisumu Central MP Joshua Oron, Lang’ata MP Phelix Odiwuor, Muhoroni MP James Koyoo, Nyando MP Jared Okello, and other leaders, Mbadi openly praised Owili’s leadership credentials.

“We know Dr Mathew Owili. He has not been waiting to work; he has been working. Kisumu already knows his capability, his commitment, and his experience. When the time comes, the people will make their decision, but to me, he is the working Governor in waiting,” declared FCPA John Mbadi.

Coming from one of ODM’s most influential national figures, the remarks reinforced the perception that Owili enjoys the confidence of the party establishment while presenting him as the continuity candidate capable of building on Prof. Nyong’o’s governance legacy.

Still, the road to the governor’s office remains anything but straightforward.

ODM has historically attracted multiple heavyweight contenders, and the contest to replace Prof. Nyong’o is expected to be fiercely competitive. Party nominations and shifting political alliances will ultimately determine the outcome.

Yet one fact is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

As others assemble campaign teams, Dr Mathew Owili appears to be consolidating something arguably more valuable: the confidence of the political establishment, the trust of county leadership, and a growing reputation as a steady, competent, and dependable pair of hands.

On the lush greens of Nyanza Golf Club, the symbolism could hardly be missed. Beside the man now steering ODM’s political direction in Nyanza walked a deputy governor increasingly viewed as the establishment’s safest bet to succeed Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o.

Whether that quiet confidence ultimately translates into electoral victory remains to be seen.

But if the politics of succession is first about earning trust before seeking votes, then Dr Mathew Owili has already positioned himself at the very heart of Kisumu’s 2027 gubernatorial conversation.

Others eyeing the top seat include Kisumu Central MP Joshua Oron, Ken Obura, Prof Tom Ojienda, former one-term Governor Jack Ranguma, Kisumu West MP Rosa Buyu, and Kisumu Women Representative Ruth Odinga, among others.

10 aspirants vying to unseat Adipo Okwome in Karachuonyo Constituency

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Western Insight Newsroom
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By Habil Onyango

With just under 13 months until the General Elections scheduled for August 10, 2027, the parliamentary seat currently held by two-term MP Adipo Okwome has already attracted 10 aspirants who are determined to unseat the 87-year-old legislator.

Okwome first contested for the position in 1980 and secured it in 2017 under the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), succeeding former MP James Rege. He has expressed his intention to defend his seat for a third time.

Karachuonyo is the second most densely populated constituency in Homa Bay County, boasting the highest number of registered voters at 94,181, according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) statistics from 2022.

The race is drawing significant interest from notable figures within both ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Among the candidates are Hannington Dey Abeka, the current Homa Bay County Clerk representing ODM; Kennedy Obyya, a former Imara Daima Member of the County Assembly (MCA) running for the UDA ticket; and Carilus Ademba, a former Homa Bay County Executive Committee Member for Trade, Industrialisation, and Enterprises, also seeking the UDA nomination.

Other contenders in the race include Collince Okendi (UDA), Samwel Okumu (ODM), Fred Makajos (ODM), who is a researcher at the East Africa Legislative Assembly, Samwel Ogutu (ODM), and Ramadhab Abdul (UDA). Jeff Ongoro, the currently serving Kanyaluo MCA, and Steve Okute Aboge, known as “Aboge wuon dollar,” are also vying for Okwome’s seat.

According to IEBC records from 2022, Karachuonyo Constituency is divided into seven wards, with Wang’chieng’ having the highest number of registered voters at 19,362. It is followed by North Karachuonyo (13,731), Kendu Bay Town (13,350), Central Kasipul (12,560), Kibiri (12,053), West Karachuonyo (11,870), and Kanyaluo (11,255). However, these numbers are expected to change significantly due to ongoing enhanced voter registration efforts.

Despite being part of a broad-based government with UDA, ODM members have been calling for zoning in ODM strongholds, particularly in the Nyanza and Western regions. This call is part of a larger and more complex political alignment, as different parties compete for dominance, voter turnout, and coalition leverage ahead of the elections.

UDA aspirants from Homa Bay and especially Karachuonyo are actively reaching out to voters as they pursue the seat.

Abeka, a close ally of Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga—who also serves as ODM National Chairperson—is seen as a front-runner against Okwome in the upcoming elections. Professionally an accountant, he enjoys significant support in Homa Bay County and advocates for community development through grassroots initiatives. Abeka focuses on education, emphasising the need for funding school infrastructure and student bursaries while also addressing healthcare, economic empowerment, and infrastructure needs. His supporters praise his background in accounting and see him as a “new dawn” for local leadership.

“We have been supporting numerous needy students through bursaries, and we have taken many youths to access various courses while supporting women in boosting their small businesses. These are initiatives we plan to continue once in office,” he stated.

Ademba takes pride in being a prominent financial expert and politician, known as the founding Executive Officer (CEO) of the Sacco Societies Regulatory Authority (SASRA).

On the other hand, Okendi aims to draw on the leadership experience he gained from former Karachuonyo MP James Rege, where he served as a personal assistant. He is recognised for his community involvement and is the Chairman and Founder of the Okendi Educational Foundation in Karachuonyo, which frequently distributes bursaries and water tanks to local primary and junior schools, along with supporting broader community initiatives.

“We have partnered with various organisations to distribute bursaries to over 1,000 students in high schools, universities, and tertiary institutions, while also donating water tanks and supporting local development initiatives across Karachuonyo Constituency,” he said.

Ongoro, a close ally of former Deputy Governor Joseph Oyugi Magwanga, who is also contesting for the county’s top seat, is well known for his community development work, especially in infrastructure, road networks, and education. He previously served as the Majority Leader and Chairman of the Budget Committee in the Homa Bay County Assembly. Currently in his second term as an MCA, Ongoro intends to advance his political career and represent Karachuonyo in Parliament. Recently, he has been vocal in criticising Governor Wanga’s administration.

Okute, alias “Aboge wuon dollar,” is actively campaigning to represent Karachuonyo Constituency. His political platform primarily focuses on youth and women’s empowerment. Aboge supports small traders and job creation, as well as enhancing access to education and healthcare by improving schools and strengthening medical facilities.

Okumu, a prominent public administrator and active political figure from the constituency, previously served as the Transport Officer for the Homa Bay County Government during Governor Cyprian Awiti’s tenure. He is currently campaigning for the upcoming parliamentary seat in the constituency.

Ogutu, known as Wuod Bishop, is currently serving as a political advisor to Governor Wanga. His focus is on education reform, transparent bursary management, water access, and infrastructure development.

Another aspirant in the upcoming elections is Obuya, who serves as the Homa Bay branch chairperson of UDA. He was elected to this position to build party structures and popularity at the grassroots level. A well-known political commentator, Obuya previously served as the Member of County Assembly (MCA) for Imara Daima Ward in Nairobi for two terms. He has now shifted his political focus to Homa Bay County, aiming to vie for a parliamentary seat specifically in Karachuonyo Constituency. His campaign platform centres on healthcare, education, and youth empowerment.

Is Saboti MP Caleb Amisi a mole or a man on a mission?

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Western Insight Newsroom
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By Anderson Ojwang’

Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula may have inadvertently returned Kenyans to the politics of 1992, the first multi-party election. In his recent interview, Savula said they were luring Saboti MP Caleb Amisi to President William Ruto’s fold.

He claimed there was a division in the Linda Mwananchi faction in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) of embattled Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.

In 1992, the opposition then united under the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) under the doyen, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and the late maverick, son of Oyondi, Martin Shikuku as the Secretary General, alongside other progressive luminaries.

The FORD wave was so strong that it threatened to end the then President, the late Daniel Arap Moi’s helm at the first presidential elections.

The unity of FORD was a nightmare to Moi, and the return of Kenneth Matiba and the massive welcome at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport was all the card the President needed to secure a victory.

Indeed, the arrival of Matiba scuttled the earlier arrangements and the unity in the political outfit. Matiba’s declaration ushered in a new political moment and subsequent split in FORD. Odinga, with his young Turks, formed FORD-Kenya while Matiba and Shikuku founded FORD-Asili.

Moi went on to win the 1992 presidential elections with 1,962,866 votes, securing 36.35 percent, while Matiba came second with 1,404,266, accounting for 26 percent. Mwai Kibaki came third with 1,050,617, accounting for 19.45 percent, and Oginga came fourth with 944,197, accounting for 19.48 percent.

Savula’s claims

Savula recently claimed they have embarked on a move to woo Amisi to Kenya Kwanza to whittle down the influence of the Sifuna-led faction in Western Kenya.

He said currently the Tawe wave of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya had fizzled out.

“As we are in talks now, we are speaking with Caleb Amisi to engage him formally, and very soon if the negotiations go well, he will join President Ruto’s team,” he said.

“We are fighting harder and harder to ensure that we kill the Linda Mwananchi wave.”

But Amisi said he had taken note of the unfortunate remarks and propaganda being circulated suggesting that he was engaged in conversations or political arrangements with the William Ruto regime.

“These allegations are false, reckless, and intended to sow division within those who seek genuine change in Kenya,” he said.

He took a swipe at Savula over what he termed as dangerous political jokes.

“To my friend Ayub Savula, whom I have known for many years, I say this respectfully: this is no longer the season for political jokes or careless speculation. UNLIKE YOU, some of us are well brought up, well mannered, well-schooled, well cultured, and highly principled. Ideology has been the bastion of my political journey,” he wrote.

Mole or no mole?

Amisi accused some of his colleagues in the opposition of labelling them moles and questioning him.

“It is also disappointing that some individuals within the opposition have assumed the role of ‘prefecting’ others and labelling young upcoming leaders as moles at the slightest opportunity. My consistency in standing with the people cannot be questioned. While you were issuing shoot-to-kill orders and dining with the repressive regime during the Gen Z protests in 2024, I was in the trenches fighting against injustices, government excesses, and police brutality,” he said.

The disconnect

The Saboti MP has been sending mixed signals and no longer attends Linda Mwananchi functions. He was a crucial member at its formation but is currently a total stranger and has expressed contradictory views with the group.

“I want to tell Sifuna. I started Kenya Moja which became Linda Mwananchi. We cannot hate William Ruto and then move to Wamunyoro (former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua). You cannot leave Ruto for Wamunyoro; something must be wrong with you,” he said.

Currently, Gachagua has become a weaponised campaign tool in the 2027 general election over his tribal inclination. In the ODM stronghold, Gachagua has become a potent campaign tool.

But recently, Gachagua said Mt Kenya will be forced to sacrifice the presidential and running mate position to enable Kenyans to vote President Ruto out.

Amisi declared that he will only support Sifuna for the presidency in 2027, yet the opposition was yet to settle on the presidential candidate – a double-edged statement.

“It must be very clear to naysayers that the only person I will support for President of the Republic of Kenya in 2027 is Edwin Sifuna. If he does not vie and chooses to support the same old guards we want to remove from the political scene, then there will be some breaking news! We must achieve the call of our generation, and sio tafadhali. I have been very consistent on my call for generational change, and I will not back down to please some egos,” he said.

Babu Owino

Babu took time to remind Amisi to use the official channel to resolve any emerging issue in the group instead of opting for the internet.

“About my brother Caleb, he knows how to solve issues. We do not want to see things on the internet. If he has issues, he should call leaders and we sit down and resolve the issues, and not the internet. He is addressing the wrong people. We don’t want to see nonsensical things. Linda Mwananchi will remain strong. We will enter into alliances with those who matter,” he said.

Orengo tactically avoided the Amisi issue during a recent interview with KTN.

But Amisi has maintained that those who recently discovered the opposition must remember that many of them were already standing with Kenyans when doing so attracted persecution rather than applause.

“We therefore urge all who have joined this struggle to approach it with humility, discipline, and mutual respect. Most importantly, Kenya will not defeat authoritarianism by returning to the failed politics of tribal mobilisation. Tribalism has never liberated our people, nor will it rescue our nation today. The young people who awakened this country reminded us that Kenya belongs to all its citizens, regardless of ethnicity,” he said.

Arithmetic not adding up for President Ruto and UDA in 2027, why Kangata opted out

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Western Insight Newsroom
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By Anderson Ojwang’

In an open and candid take, Murang’a Governor Irungu Kangata has come out to state that his analysis arrived at the conclusion that President William Ruto could be facing an uphill task in winning a second term.

Kangata said the realisation changed his political journey after he observed that arithmetic was not adding up for UDA and President Ruto in the 2027 general elections.

The realisation was informed by the fact that patterns and trends determine voting and results in general elections.

He said Mt Kenya, Lower Eastern, Kisii, Western, and parts of Nyanza have found a different political destination and were not reading from Ruto’s script.

According to 2022 Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) data, the Mt Kenya community accounts for 4 million votes, including those in the diaspora, while the Kamba community accounts for 1.6 million, Kisii accounts for 960,000, Luhya 2.3 million, and the Luo community 2.1 million.

“President Ruto is my close friend for several years. When he started his politics in Mt Kenya, I was the MP for Kiharu and I was able to support him,” he said.

Kangata said politics was not about friendship but mathematical, and his arithmetic was not working.

“Politics is not about friendship but mathematical. When I do my arithmetic, it is not adding up. So I have to think deeply,” he said.

The Raila-Kibaki fallout

Kangata said in the 2002 general election, the late Raila Odinga supported the late Mwai Kibaki to sail to the presidency.

But in 2005 there was a fallout between Raila and Kibaki, and the former walked away with the majority of the votes.

“In 2005, we saw Kibaki and Raila ahead of the referendum. In 2002, Kibaki was helped by Raila to become the president, and in 2007, Raila disappeared with the votes and joined in alliance with Ruto,” he said.

In 2007, Kenya witnessed disputed presidential elections, which resulted in post-election violence and subsequently a coalition government with Kibaki as President and Raila as Prime Minister.

Raila-Ruto fallout

Raila and Ruto disagreed in 2010, and the same scenario replayed, with Raila losing the 2013 presidential elections.

“In 2010, Raila and Ruto fell out. Ruto disappeared with the votes, and Raila lost the election to Jubilee candidate Uhuru Kenyatta,” he said.

Ruto-Gachagua fallout

Kangata said when he saw the fallout between Ruto and his deputy, the impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, he was alarmed by the trend and the pattern.

“When I saw Ruto and Wamunyoro fall out, I realised there was a problem here. Four million votes have been lost in this fallout,” he said.

Currently, Mt Kenya is rebelling against President Ruto, and Gachagua, Uhuru Kenyatta, and other leading leaders from the region have come together to lock out the region.

Kangata earlier in the year declared that he would not defend his seat on a UDA ticket and would seek an alternative vehicle.

Kangata, one of the top performers, won the 2022 gubernatorial elections with a total of 256,561 votes and was followed by Jamleck Kamau of the Jubilee Party with 91,154 votes, from a total registered voters of 620,929.

In the last general election, the voter turnout was 68 percent, with President Ruto securing 343,421 votes against Azimio La Umoja Presidential candidate, the late Raila Amolo Odinga’s 73,519 votes.

Kangata quoted President Ruto that the people were supreme and that it was incumbent upon him to adhere to what the people had told him.

“President Ruto has always told us that the people are supreme, and thank you for that statement. Therefore, my responsibility is to adhere to what the people have told me. And in light of that, and because I have tried my best to have these issues resolved internally, I have had a candid discussion with the President one on one, where we shared these ideas, but we did not reach what we call full convergence,” he said.

Kangata said he had conclusively decided to defend his seat on a different platform and not UDA.

“I have no doubt to say that after careful reflection, I wish to state that come 2027, I will not defend my seat on the current party ticket.”

The equation

President Ruto’s political game plan was to sna re ODM into his fold and form a pre-election coalition before the elections.

President Ruto was banking on Raila’s huge support, but his demise has undermined the equation. The formation of the Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM has left Linda Ground as a mere shackle with only party instruments and a Luo outfit.

Kangata said the UDA government’s equation was to lure ODM supporters into the fold to fill the void left by Mt Kenya’s 4 million votes.

“Some of the ODM members joined the government while others declined and saw the opportunity to look for the 4 million votes to form an alliance.”

Sifuna’s emergence

Sifuna’s sudden rise has been because of his opposition to the broad-based government and his alleged sacking by the Dr Oburu Oginga-led faction as Secretary General.

“That is where the ODM Secretary General, Sifuna, saw the vacuum and took the opportunity. The truth is Sifuna has come out when there is opportunity, and the age factor is on his side. The Luhya community is big. Which ODM leader has come to Mt Kenya and people turn up in huge numbers if it is not Sifuna? Sifuna is accepted across the board. I have put my ambition aside. Sifuna Tosha,” he said.

The odds

Kangata said President Ruto was faced by odds ranging from the Gen Z rebellion to rebellion from other regions.

“That is why when I work on my arithmetic on the side of UDA, it’s not working out. They have a problem with the Gen Z. People say there is no Gen Z; it’s just a storm. Let’s assume they are not there. But there is a problem in Mt Kenya, Kisii, Lower Eastern, Western, and even Luo land. This is the biggest problem for Kenya Kwanza,” he said.

UDA mistake

He said UDA’s mistake was attacking Gachagua while the region will not have any presidential candidate.

“No presidential candidate from Mt Kenya will be on the ballot. So attacking Wamunyoro makes no political sense,” he said.

Kangata said at the moment, Mt Kenya was looking for people to form an alliance with and wondered why the attack on Gachagua.

“We are looking for where to land, and we will come with our 4 million votes. So politics of attacking Wamunyoro doesn’t make sense and add votes,” he said.

Using the analogy of a waiter and a watchman in a hotel, he wondered why the attacks should go to Gachagua.

“I have walked into a hotel. Instead of ordering from the waiter, you ask the watchman to give you food. Ask the waiter to give you food instead of the watchman. Wamunyoro is the watchman who is not in the government,” he said.

Will arithmetic work for Ruto?

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