By Anderson Ojwang
At the burial of the late Ol Kalou MP David Njunguna Kiaraho, it was billed as a possible explosive first public encounter of allies turned bitter rivals, President William Ruto and his now impeached deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua.
The meeting came shortly after President Ruto’s campaign team, led by Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki, humbled Gachagua’s united opposition candidate Newton Kariuki Ndwiga of DP, who lost to UDA’s Leo Wa Muthende in the Mbeere North by-election.
And yesterday, an opinion poll released by Mizani Africa showed that DCP candidate Sammy Ngotho (DCP) has opened a commanding lead with 61.4 percent, far ahead of Samuel Muchina (UDA) at 18.0 percent, while Martin Wambugu “Tinga Tinga” (PLP) follows distantly at 6.3 percent.
The Ol Kalou burial encounter was of significant importance to the two leaders, with each weighing the other’s strength while Gachagua employed the services of Nyandarua Senator John Methu to test Ruto’s political waters.
Interestingly, Gachagua on Monday appointed Methu as the Secretary General designate of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) to replace Hezron Obaga.
Gachagua said the party’s National Executive Council had assigned Methu his first major responsibility: leading DCP’s campaign efforts in the upcoming Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election scheduled for July 16.
“The National Executive Council has given Senator John Methu, the Secretary General designate, his first assignment: that he, together with other leaders, take charge of the by-elections in Ol Kalou and deliver a decisive victory to the DCP party,” he said.
The by-election comes hot on the heels of Gachagua’s DCP invasion of Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) backyard in Emurua Dikirr, where DCP challenged UDA dominance.
In the parliamentary by-election, Mr David Kipsang Keter of the UDA Party won after getting 18,266 votes against Vincent Kibet Rotich of the DCP Party, who got 10,760 votes. From the data, DCP managed a strong performance with 36.4 percent of the votes cast against UDA’s 63.6 percent.
Gachagua said his party, which was celebrating one year, stormed Mr William Ruto’s perceived stronghold in style, gave him a run for his money, and outperformed contemporaries.
Gachagua wrote: “Congratulations to Rotich for the splendid performance that has shaken south Rift politics, which for far too long – in fact for over 60 years – has been left behind in independent Kenya. A score of 10,760 votes is no mean feat.”
“To the great people of Emurua Dikirr, you are the true heroes of our nation, Kenya, for showing independence of mind, rationality, exercising your democratic right, and refusing to be intimidated. I will, on my return from my overseas trip to the United Kingdom, personally visit you and thank those who campaigned for and supported Hon. Vincent Rotich.”
The opinion poll
With the July 16, 2026, by-election fast approaching, the battle to replace the late Hon. Kiaraho is increasingly shaping into a referendum on political direction in Ol Kalou.
The survey showed Ngotho of DCP opening a commanding lead with 61.4 percent, far ahead of Samuel Muchina (UDA) at 18.0 percent, while Martin Wambugu “Tinga Tinga” (PLP) follows distantly at 6.3 percent.
The party landscape mirrors the same trend. DCP leads party support with 51.8 percent, comfortably ahead of UDA’s 19.1 percent, while the once-dominant Jubilee Party (6.5 percent) appears to have lost significant ground in a constituency it previously controlled through the late Hon. Kiaraho.
Insights
Although the late Hon. Kiaraho was elected on a Jubilee Party ticket, his close working relationship with President Ruto and the UDA administration had initially created expectations that UDA could inherit the constituency’s support base after his passing.
However, the current numbers suggest that the succession battle has moved beyond legacy politics and entered a new phase driven by fresh political realignments and protest energy.
At the moment, DCP appears to have successfully consolidated both party momentum and candidate preference, giving Sammy Ngotho a significant structural advantage heading into the by-election.
For UDA, the challenge is no longer just mobilization, but overcoming a widening perception gap despite proximity to government power. Meanwhile, Jubilee’s collapse to single digits signals a major erosion of its historical foothold in the constituency, raising serious questions about whether the party can still compete meaningfully in the Mt Kenya political battlefield.
Unless there is a major late-stage shift, consolidation, or turnout surprise, the current trajectory positions DCP as the clear frontrunner heading into July 16, 2026.
UDA
UDA wrote on its social media platforms: “UDA candidate for Ol Kalou Constituency by-election, Samuel Muchina Nyagah, was cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). The journey to Bunge begins. We will seek every vote to continue with the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation (BETA) agenda for the benefit of the people of Ol Kalou. Muchina was escorted by a mammoth crowd of his supporters to PCEA Ol Kalou to submit his nomination papers. The immediate former CDF Manager, Samuel Muchina Nyaga, is credited with facilitating the disbursement of bursaries to thousands of students and overseeing the implementation of several community projects under the late MP, David Kiaraho.”
Muchina pledged to introduce free Day Secondary School education for every child in Ol Kalou Constituency.
DCP take
DCP wrote: “Ngotho anachezea home-ground. Sammy Waweru Ngotho cleared by IEBC to vie for the Ol Kalou Parliamentary by-election on Thursday, July 16, 2026.”
Ol Kalou will be a determiner of how Mt Kenya is likely to vote in the 2027 general election and whether President Ruto will still have a voice in the region.
For Kindiki, he will be going all out for a double against Gachagua, who wants to prove to the public that he is the de facto leader of Mt Kenya.
For Gachagua and Ruto, who will blink first in the contest and run away with the bragging rights?
Will Gachagua land the first MP for DCP, or will he fall flat as was the case in Mbeere North?
The clock is ticking, and it is only a matter of time before the electorate has its say.
