By Billy Mijungu
The overall picture is worrying, but it is being packaged as progress.
Take agriculture. Growth has dropped to 2.8% from 4.4%, yet this is presented as success because unga prices have fallen from about KSh 250 to roughly KSh 130. That narrative hides the deeper issue: production growth is slowing. Large-scale investments like Galana Kulalu appear stagnant or underperforming. Policy support works better than direct government participation, because when the State becomes a player, it crowds out private sector efficiency and ultimately suppresses growth.
Manufacturing tells the same story. Growth has slowed to 2% from 3%. With high input and energy costs, expansion is constrained. Instead of enabling cheaper production, the system sustains high costs, pushing jobs and opportunities elsewhere. While energy players may report strong profits, the broader economy absorbs the pain.
Transport and storage, at 3.7% down from 4.3%, reflects reduced economic activity. When production slows, movement slows, and jobs shrink. This sector is directly tied to manufacturing and agriculture, so its decline is not surprising.
Accommodation and food services show the sharpest drop, from 25.9% to 15.6%. This signals reduced consumer spending. High living costs mean fewer people are travelling, dining out, or engaging in discretionary spending. Households are cutting back.
ICT growth has fallen to 4.8% from 7.1%. Yet the success story presented is the digitization of over 12,000 government services. That is a political narrative, not an economic one. What matters to citizens is affordability, access, and efficiency. High costs limit uptake and slow real sector growth.
Finally, financial services and insurance growth has eased to 6.5% from 7.5%. This is happening even as the NSE performs strongly. The explanation lies in shifting liquidity. With increased government levies and lower absorption into productive spending, capital is being redirected into equities as an alternative. That movement is then framed as economic strength.
Across all sectors, one pattern emerges: the government is increasingly competing with the private sector instead of enabling it. The result is slower growth, reduced job creation, and an economy that is weakening beneath carefully managed narratives.
The numbers don’t lie. The story just changes depending on who is telling it.
