By Remmy Butia
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has wasted no time in positioning himself as a key opposition figure against President William Ruto’s administration. His recent public appearances, including a rally in Kiserian where residents displayed campaign posters endorsing an opponent of Governor Joseph Lenku (Seki for Governor 2027), suggest that Gachagua is actively laying the groundwork for a political showdown in 2027.
But can Gachagua sustain this aggressive campaign strategy, and what advice should he consider to remain politically viable?
Gachagua’s Current Strategy: Strengths and Risks
Gachagua’s approach appears to hinge on two main pillars:
Mobilizing the Kikuyu Base – His rhetoric strongly appeals to the Mt. Kenya region, where he portrays himself as a defender of the community’s interests against Ruto’s government.
Opposing Ruto Allies – By openly supporting challengers to incumbent leaders like Governor Lenku, he is signaling a broader strategy to weaken Ruto’s influence across counties.
However, this approach carries significant risks:
Over-Reliance on Ethnic Politics – Kenya’s political landscape is evolving, and while the Kikuyu vote is substantial (about 6-7 million registered voters), winning a national election requires a broader coalition. With over 20 million registered voters, Gachagua cannot afford to be seen as a regional kingpin alone.
Early Campaign Fatigue – Starting campaigns too early can lead to voter fatigue. By 2027, his messaging might lose impact if not strategically timed.
Potential Isolation – If he alienates other communities by appearing too Mt. Kenya-centric, he may struggle to build alliances with leaders from Western, Rift Valley, or Coast regions.
Kenyans are wary of leaders who rely solely on vendettas rather than solutions. Without a clear agenda beyond attacking Ruto, his popularity could fade.
If Gachagua’s opposition appears driven by personal vendetta rather than national interest, he risks being dismissed as a bitter ex-leader rather than a credible alternative. Kenyans respect defiance when it serves the people – not when it seems like political revenge.
Alternative Leadership Appeal
For Gachagua to remain politically relevant post-impeachment, he must present a compelling vision beyond Ruto-bashing. If he champions real issues – economic justice, inclusivity, or institutional reforms – he could rebuild his image. But if his strategy is purely anti-Ruto, he may become a footnote in Kenya’s political history.
Best Advice for Gachagua
For Gachagua to remain a formidable force, he should consider the following:
Expand His Political Base – While consolidating the Mt. Kenya vote is crucial, he must actively engage other regions. Building alliances with leaders from Western, Lower Eastern, and the Rift Valley would strengthen his national appeal.
Avoid Premature Confrontations – Targeting Ruto allies too early may trigger a fierce backlash from state machinery. A more calculated approach, focusing on policy critiques rather than personal attacks, could make his opposition more sustainable.
Develop a Clear Alternative Agenda – Simply opposing Ruto is not enough. Gachagua needs a compelling economic and governance agenda to convince voters he offers a better alternative.
Manage Internal Rivalries – Mt. Kenya politics is highly competitive. If other leaders like Ndindi Nyoro, Moses Kuria, William Kabogo and Martha Karua emerge as alternative voices, Gachagua’s influence could fragment.
Can He Sustain This Momentum?
Gachagua’s early moves show determination, but longevity will depend on his ability to balance ethnic mobilization with national inclusivity, avoid being branded as a divisive figure and maintain discipline in messaging to prevent early burnout.
If he plays his cards right, he could emerge as a leading opposition force by 2027. However, if his strategy remains narrowly focused, he risks being sidelined as just another regional player in Kenya’s dynamic political arena.
Gachagua has the potential to shape the 2027 political landscape, but his success hinges on broadening his appeal beyond Mt. Kenya and presenting a coherent national vision. Otherwise, his early momentum may fizzle out before the real battle begins.
An impeached Rigathi Gachagua might gain fleeting popularity by opposing Ruto, but lasting love from Kenyans requires more than hate – it demands integrity, vision, and genuine service. Without these, his defiance could be seen as mere opportunism, not leadership.
