By Anderson Ojwang
History may be repeating itself. The 2002 moment may be beckoning.
The 45 days of Wamunyoro retreat, the conclave. The High Court blow. A new journey and beginning.
Now all signs and moves point to a Tosha moment similar to the one the late Raila Amolo Odinga declared to ride the then lethargic opposition led by Mwai Kibaki and the late Wamalwa Kijana to the presidency.
The infamous Kibaki Tosha altered the political landscape in the country and ushered in a political wave which swept the then retiring president Daniel Moi and his Kanu preferred candidate Uhuru Kenyatta into the abyss.
The Kanu fallout
After the merger of Kanu with NDP and Raila becoming the Secretary General of Kanu, the party had prospective presidential candidates in Uhuru, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, the late George Saitoti, and Raila.
When Moi declared Uhuru as the preferred candidate, Raila led other prospective presidential candidates to ditch Kanu for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
It is only Mudavadi who walked back to Moi, became the Vice President and Uhuru’s running mate.
Raila and his team gave a new political dimension to opposition politics, and the tide changed swiftly, leaving Kanu on the receiving end.
The Nyachae catch
Former Cabinet Minister, the late Simeon Nyachae, then party leader of Ford-P and its presidential candidate, had hoped that Raila would declare him as the presidential candidate.
Nyachae, convinced after consultative and strategic meetings with Raila that he would be the opposition flag bearer, was caught flat-footed and never recovered.
The Kibaki Tosha
The infamous declaration of “Kibaki Tosha” by Raila turned the political wave in the country, and Kanu was left chasing the race. Kenyans from all shades and boundaries rallied behind Kibaki, with Raila as the engine of the political tractor.
The tractor roared and delivered Kibaki’s presidency even after he suffered a worse accident after a rally in Eastern Kenya.
The Tosha spirit gripped the nation, and Kibaki overwhelmingly defeated Uhuru and other fringe candidates, including Nyachae and now Siaya Governor James Orengo.
The Conclave
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is fitting into the footsteps of Raila as the ideal replacement and the new kingmaker of Kenya’s politics.
Impeached and having failed to secure a High Court ruling to overturn the impeachment, Gachagua is now a man on a mission.
The mission is simple: make President William Ruto a one-term president.
That is why he came out in Tuesday’s press conference stating that he was retreating to Wamunyoro for 45 days in what can be termed as a political conclave to come out with a single presidential candidate.
The Plot
Gachagua’s 60-member advisory team’s directive that the work of political mobilisation and base consolidation was now complete to a large extent was intentional.
“That which is of imperative importance now is the choice of a single presidential candidate to face William Ruto at the ballot. That I hold consultations with Kenyans and seek mandate to engage my colleagues in the united alternative government to seek one single presidential candidate,” he said.
That directive was telling and impactful for Gachagua to engage Mt Kenya and explain to them why it may not be feasible to have him or another Mt Kenya candidate on the ballot to face Ruto.
“We have two main and complementary plans, A and B, which we will discuss with stakeholders. Plan A is to mobilise support from across the country in the event that my colleagues and the formula we shall agree on favour me as the presidential flag bearer. While Plan B is to get the blessings and the mandate of my supporters and the people of Kenya to back our agreed candidate in the event that the formula agreed upon does not favour me as the single presidential flag bearer,” he said.
Gachagua reiterated his commitment to a single presidential flag bearer for the opposition to face Ruto.
“I want to reiterate and firmly state to the people of Kenya that I remain committed to working with my colleagues in the united alternative government towards the cause of a single presidential flag bearer,” he said.
Tosha Moment
Gachagua is preparing the country for the Tosha Moment, and the country should watch for a possible political thunderbolt.
“If any one of my colleagues is agreed upon, I give a firm commitment that I will lead political mobilisation never seen in the history of our independent Kenya,” he said.
“If any of my colleagues is agreed upon, I give a firm commitment to Kenyans. I will lead the campaign and make Ruto a one-term president,” he said.
Gachagua will lead the presidential campaigns and will do whatever it takes to take President Ruto home.
I will make someone president
Gachagua said through his 4 million supporters he was able to make Ruto president; he will mobilise his 10 million support block to make another person president.
“If Gachagua mobilised 4 million votes and made Ruto president, I will mobilise my 10 million supporters to take him out. I made Ruto president with my supporters. I and my supporters will make someone else the president. I will support another Kenyan,” he said.
Gachagua said there will be no division in the opposition ahead of next year’s elections.
“I will ensure that everybody moves along, in case it is not me, including President Uhuru Kenyatta, to ensure the opposition vote basket for the agreed candidate is full,” he said.
A friend in need is a friend indeed
Gachagua, in his tribulations, understood the importance of friendship, and that is why he is ready to sacrifice his ambition for one of them.
“To my co-principals, Hon. Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa, before, during and after the impeachment, you have been with me every step of the way. To my co-principals of the United Alternative Government, you have been a family to me. To the Senators and MPs from across the board who stood with me, you were harassed and intimidated and refused to succumb to bribery. May God bless you. The journey has just begun,” he said.
The question is: on whom will the white smoke fall – Kalonzo, Fred Matiang’i, Martha Karua, Edwin Sifuna, or Wamalwa?
