By Billy Mijungu
William Ruto understands his opponents very well. His recent rhetoric has been disproportionately focused on Kalonzo. Despite sustained attacks from Matiang’i, Ruto has barely mentioned him even once. That silence is strategic.
Ruto’s political style is he either works to co-opt you or becomes ruthless in destroying you. Kalonzo is currently facing the latter. He poses a unique challenge to Ruto because he commands a tested, transferable and retainable voter base. Many others cannot. This makes him the most credible threat in opposition space.
Matiang’i is structurally weaker. His political ascent is heavily dependent on Uhuru Kenyatta’s goodwill, and Kalonzo knows this. All Kalonzo needs, is insist on staying on the ballot until the end. The numbers between him and Matiang’i are not dramatically different, and endurance matters in Kenyan politics.
The dominant political strategy for 2026 is simple, divide as much as possible and remain the only unifying force. Ruto wants to fragment everyone while presenting himself as the sole center of power.
In Mount Kenya, this strategy is already in motion. The elevation of Kindiki Kithure to the position of Deputy President is tactical and designed to cement Mount Kenya East while subtly weakening Mount Kenya West. This is fragmentation through ethnic recalibration, and so far, it is working.
ODM is the next major target, and fragmentation is already underway. The goal is to neutralize ODM by first ensuring Ruto remains in full control of government, then peeling away Luhya and Coast leaders from the party. ODM is gradually being reduced to an appendage whose role is to support UDA, particularly in mobilizing Nyanza and parts of Nairobi.
Ruto is not only focused on re-election in 2027. He is equally invested in succession in 2032. His plan is to build UDA into a numerically dominant machine that can later be handed over to his preferred successor, who is clearly Kindiki. The idea of being removed from power unsettles him, so the strategy is preemptive destruction of potential threats. Weaken GEMA power centers, fragment ODM and expand UDA’s footprint nationally.
Ironically, ODM unity should be the easiest to sustain. There is no serious internal contest for the presidency or deputy presidency. All that is required is disciplined nationwide campaigning to maintain or slightly grow their numbers. But the allure of government proximity is powerful. Many are intoxicated by the smell of power without realizing they have not truly accessed it.
Fragmentation remains Ruto’s ride or die strategy. Whether the opposition recognizes it in time will determine the political outcome ahead.
