By Sandra Blessings

Kenya’s top political parties, UDA and ODM, could be struggling with a growing loss of loyalty in their political backyards due to a loss of trust, according to a recent poll.

The national survey by TIFA was conducted between 23rd August and 3rd September 2025, with 2,023 randomly selected Kenyan adults aged 18 and above across all 47 counties interviewed.

In the poll, both ODM and UDA have lost a significant portion of their bases, indicating a major erosion of loyalty towards the parties, while the undecided/none category rose from 15 per cent to 43 per cent, making it the largest single group.

This development suggests growing voter disillusionment, dissatisfaction and reluctance to commit to existing political parties.

“For UDA, the loyalty rating in August, which was at 38 per cent, dropped to 16 per cent, while for the same period for ODM it was at 32 per cent and now stands at 13 per cent. For Jubilee Party in August it stood at 5 per cent and dropped to 3 per cent, while for Wiper it has stagnated at 4 per cent.

DCP, which was polled for the first time, had loyalty at 9 per cent, while Ford-K and DAP-Kenya both stagnated at 1 per cent, and the undecided moved from 15 per cent to 43 per cent.”

Although UDA remains the most popular party, the level of support expressed stands at 16 per cent, compared to the support expressed for no political party, which stands at 31 per cent.

Four out of ten Kenyans express support for no party at all — the highest such figure ever obtained from this question since political polling returned to Kenya in the late 1990s.

The poll also found that a combination of UDA, ODM and Ford-K only marshalled 30 per cent of Kenyan support.

The poll also revealed that Kenyans were divided on former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s political future, with a majority expecting him to align with President William Ruto in the 2027 election, while nearly half still see him anchoring the opposition either directly or indirectly.

46 per cent expect Raila to support Ruto’s re-election, while 28 per cent are opposed to it. A third of Kenyans expect that he will rejoin the opposition, and about a quarter of broad-based government supporters expect that he will turn his back on the current government by rejoining the opposition by 2027.

The poll also showed that Raila’s political brand was at a crossroads, long defined as the face of opposition, with his future role being uncertain and lacking clarity.

The poll further revealed that ethnic community leaders will play a major role in the voting patterns among the Luo and Kamba, while such influence will be moderate among the Kikuyu and Kalenjin.

But community leaders’ influence will remain weakest in more fragmented communities such as the Luhya, Coastal, Somali and Mt Kenya East.

In 2027, the poll revealed, strong ethnic anchors may be found among the Luo, Kamba, Kikuyu and Kalenjin, while others, like the Luhya, may struggle to consolidate support under a single figure.

The IEBC, the poll found, faces a legitimacy test and high levels of distrust, which could fuel scepticism about the fairness, transparency and credibility of the 2027 elections.

The broad-based government support across the country was highest in Northern Kenya at 61 per cent, Rift Valley at 45 per cent and Nyanza at 34 per cent. It was lowest in Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern at 11 and 17 per cent respectively.

Kenyans’ expectations are evenly divided on the prospect of a united opposition in the 2027 elections.

By Hope Barbra

Old habits die hard, so they say, and truly in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) the incompetence, manipulation, confusion, favouritism and rigging have again reared their ugly head in Ugunja and Kasipul constituencies.

The ODM nominations, that have turned out to be the graveyard of budding and senior politicians, are again waiting for the arrival of new clients to add to the ever-growing list of its victims.

The nomination fiasco that was witnessed in the 2022 elections was blamed for over 700,000 voters from Nyanza who failed to turn up to vote and handed William Ruto the presidency on a silver platter by merely over 200,000 votes.

The ODM Election Board is living up to its billing with allegations of bribery, manipulation and confusion that are likely to bungle the nomination exercise, which has been a common feature in the party for the last 20 years.

In Ugunja, the battle for the ticket has emerged as a neck-and-neck tie between Eng. Fredrick ZB Owino, Joseph Otieno Aluru and Moses Omondi, and it can go either way.

Omondi, former NG-CDF manager, enjoys the support of Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, while Governor James Orengo has a close relationship with the other aspirants.

In Kasipul, the battle is between Governor Gladys Wanga’s Boyd Were and her deputy Oyugi Magwanga’s Kepha Newton Ogada.

Ogada also enjoys the support of Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga and his sister Dr Wenwa Odinga. Other aspirants are Okindo Majiwa, Dr Adel Ottoman and George Ajoh Mbuta.

With only 12 hours to the nomination, in Kasipul aspirants and voters still do not know the identified polling centres, causing confusion and anxiety.

Last night, the board resolved the dilemma over the returning officer by appointing a new returning officer from Kisii county to preside over the Kasipul election as it grapples with the thorny issue of polling clerks.

On Tuesday, reports of the last-minute changes in the list of election officials for Kasipul caused a political storm in the party.

Sources within the ODM told Western Insight that Chairperson Emily Awita of the Election Board made changes to the list following last night’s intervention by a senior party official.

Awita and the board had two weeks ago appointed a returning officer, deputy and ICT official who were trained in Kakamega for the exercise.

Sources revealed that the appointed returning officer and ICT had in turn identified and submitted the list of polling officials to the Election Board and were expected to undergo training in Homa Bay town tomorrow ahead of Wednesday’s exercise.

Awita was asked by the top party senior official to drop the original board list of all the officials and instead use the new list presented to her.

The enraged top party official gave a dressing-down to Awita and her team for failing to liaise with him over the appointment of the officials.

“The top party official was mad that the election officials appointed by the board were not known to him and this could compromise the outcome,” our sources revealed.

Our attempts to contact Awita were unsuccessful as she did not pick our calls.

Yesterday, aspirants warned that any attempt to rig the election would be met by the full force of the people.

And it is all guns blazing, with the guns now trained on Homa Bay Governor Wanga’s candidate, Boyd Were.

The Kasipul professionals led by Engineer Tom Awino Okoko and Balwin Oluoch have camped in the constituency, holding a series of strategic meetings and rallies across the constituency in support of Ogada.

Magwanga’s decision to oppose his boss’s candidate confirms the fallout the two leaders have had in the last two years and the possibility that they will not seek re-election on a joint ticket.

Earlier, Magwanga had declined Wanga’s overtures to support her candidate, and he has now gone out to campaign for his preferred candidate. This could be a pointer to torrid moments ahead in Homa Bay County politics.

Wanga has directed county government employees from the area to campaign for Boyd and even prevailed upon her CEC Dr Joash Aloo to forgo his ambition and instead support her candidate.

The decision by Wanga to declare support for Boyd has divided the party right in the middle and forced most of the aspirants to seek alternative vehicles for the by-election.

By Hope Barbra

The last-minute changes in the list of election officials for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in Kasipul have raised concern over a plot to rig the election.

Sources within the ODM told Western Insight that Chairperson Emily Awita of the Election Board made changes to the list following last night’s intervention by a senior party official.

Awita and the board had, two weeks ago, appointed a returning officer, deputy, and ICT official who were trained in Kakamega for the exercise.

Sources revealed that the appointed returning officer and ICT officer had in turn identified and submitted the list of polling officials to the election board and were expected to undergo training in Homa Bay town tomorrow ahead of Thursday’s exercise.

Awita was asked by the top party official to drop the original list of all the officials and instead use the new list presented to her.

The enraged top party official gave a dressing-down to Awita and her team for failing to liaise with him over the appointment of the officials.

“The top party official was mad that the election officials appointed by the board were not known to him, and this could compromise the outcome,” our sources revealed.

Our attempts to contact Awita were unsuccessful as she did not pick our calls.

Yesterday, aspirants warned that any attempt to rig the election would be met by the full force of the people.

And it is all guns blazing, with the guns now trained on Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga’s candidate, Boyd Were.

After a hide-and-seek game, Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga has finally come out to campaign for his preferred candidate, Mr. Newton Kepha Ogada, for the ODM ticket.

Joining the fray are the Kasipul professionals led by Engineer Tom Awino Okoko and Balwin Oluoch, who in the last three days have held a series of strategic meetings and rallies across the constituency.

Magwanga, the former area MP, has come out to ask voters to reject Wanga’s candidate Boyd, the son of his bitter rival, the slain immediate former MP Charles Ongondo Were.

“When the former Kasipul MP Peter Owidi died, did the party give a direct ticket to the relatives? And what about former Ndhiwa MP Orwa Ojode—was the wife given the ticket? Even in Malava, the son of the late Moses Mululu Injende was not given a direct ticket and he lost at the nomination. We must reject the project,” he said.

Governor Wanga, when contacted for comment, wrote: “No comment.”

Magwanga’s decision to oppose his boss’s candidate confirms the fallout the two leaders have had in the last two years and the possibility that they will not seek re-election on a joint ticket.

Earlier, Magwanga had declined Wanga’s overtures to support her candidate, and he has now gone out to campaign for his preferred choice. This could be a pointer to torrid moments ahead in Homa Bay County politics.

Earlier, the battle for Kasipul had been billed to be between Wanga, who is the ODM national chairperson, against Siaya Senator Dr. Oburu Odinga and Dr. Wenwa Odinga, elder sibling to ODM party leader Raila Odinga.

The battle for the ODM ticket pits Boyd, Ogada, Okindo Majiwa, Dr. Adel Ottoman, and George Ajoh Mbuta.

Several aspirants who had shown interest in the party ticket opted out over what they termed manipulation of the exercise by a section of the top party leadership.

For the first time in history, the excitement and scramble for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket in Nyanza has thawed, with leading aspirants for the Kasipul parliamentary by-election seeking alternative vehicles.

Ogada is banking on his community support for widows, where he has constructed 6,000 houses in the county, while in Kasipul he has built 2,000 for widows and the vulnerable.

Ogada also runs a hospital, which he built in 2013, and an orphanage that supports 211 children, most of them schooling in his institution.

He has held several health outreaches in Kasipul and other parts of the county and country.

“My work speaks for itself. I have a development record unmatched by any of my competitors, and that is why I want to be the MP to escalate the development,” he said.

Boyd is relying on his father’s achievements and those of the county government to win the ODM ticket and eventually the election.

Boyd has been traversing the constituency campaigning, and he is not a pushover. This explains why Magwanga and the professionals have come out guns blazing.

He hopes that with Wanga’s and other ODM MPs’ support, he will win the ticket and the election to inherit his father’s seat.

“Boyd has conducted a powerful campaign. He has presented a different image and resonates well with the youth. He is not a pushover in the contest. It is a two-horse race and can go either way,” said a section of residents interviewed.

Wanga has directed county government employees from the area to campaign for Boyd and even prevailed upon her CEC Dr. Joash Aloo to forgo his ambition in favor of her candidate.

The decision by Wanga to declare support for Boyd has divided the party right in the middle and forced most of the aspirants to seek alternative vehicles for the by-election.

“We are on the ground to write history. We want to have a fresh start in Kasipul, and that is why we have rolled out a serious campaign.

We are not leaving anything to chance. Kasipul people must be allowed to elect a leader of their own choice,” Oluoch said.

Oluoch added that the professionals under the leadership of Eng. Okoko have decided to comb the ground and protect the votes from any form of rigging.

ODM is reputed for nomination anomalies, with the party leadership known to interfere with the exercise or, on occasion, award direct tickets to their preferred candidates.

By Anderson Ojwang

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has finally found himself in a precarious political situation and could be running behind and against time to stall the emerging dispensation.

On Monday, in Machakos, during the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Parliamentary Group meeting (PG), Raila warned his party members not to engage in issues that have not been discussed by the party and that ODM could present a presidential candidate.

“I agree with the presentation that we must look at what you have signed. We must remain as ODM. We have agreed that we will work together up to 2027.

We have not passed any resolution as a party to say how we are going to go into elections in 2027. So, where you are, don’t commit the party to something that has not been discussed.

Let those things be discussed first. We are ODM, and who told you ODM will not have a candidate in 2027?

First think as ODM. We have a clear plan that we have negotiated and agreed on. Let us continue to implement that plan. Other decisions we will take when that time comes,” he said.

But during the recent burial of Mama Phoebe Asiyo in Karachuonyo, Raila challenged the opposition for a duel at the ballot and said that their alliance with President William Ruto will go beyond the 2027 elections.

“I want to tell the naysayers to give us space and room. Judge us in 2027. And we have said this is going to remain in place up to 2027 and after that, we will see where we go.

You are saying one term. So what? It is the Kenyans who will decide the terms, and we will see where we want to go. I am confident when that time comes we will face Kenyans squarely and tell them why we did what we had to do and where we want to go.

You will tell your agenda and we will tell Kenyans our agenda, and we will see who the Kenyans will trust. I am not worried about those making noise. It is like a frog croaking that doesn’t scare the cows from drinking water. They will actually drink the water.

We will be able to move beyond 2027. I am confident we will move beyond 2027. Nobody should try to threaten us. We are Kenyans. Don’t go and say that Kenya is sectionalized. We are from the Coast, we are from the Lake, we are from the Mountain, we are from the Valley. This is unacceptable. We are Kenyans. Every Kenyan matters,” he said.

Now Raila is staring at a stark reality: his political backyard has accepted and moved on with the fact that he will not be a presidential candidate in the 2027 elections, and this has opened the space.

This situation has stirred a new political dispensation in Nyanza and most parts of the country where ODM is the significant party, and the scramble for a piece of the cake has begun in earnest.

The failure by ODM to draw a huge number of aspirants for the party nominations in Ugunja and Kasipul respectively, and the high number of candidates contesting on independent tickets and other political parties, is some of the hard reality that Raila has to face.

At the weekend, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi told his Suba constituents that he will not contest for any seat but will campaign for President William Ruto’s re-election.

“I know you have heard that in 2027, I will not contest for any seat. I want you to support me so that after 2027, I remain in this position I currently hold. For me to hold this office, we must re-elect President Ruto,” he said.

Raila is also staring at internal hemorrhage in his party as top officials claw at each other, leaving it in a precarious position and making it vulnerable.

In a recent Citizen TV interview, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna criticized and dismissed the broad-based government and President Ruto’s administration, claiming the memorandum of understanding between ODM and UDA was dead.

Sifuna maintained that UDA has failed to implement the 10-point agenda as agreed with ODM, adding that it was time the orange outfit severed its links with the government.

Despite criticism from party leaders, Raila stood by him, saying, “Sifuna has a right to express his opinion. It is not a must for people to have the same opinion, and we must defend the right to speak. If Sifuna has spoken, he has the right to do so, and if one feels they have a different opinion from what Sifuna is saying, then they should be free to say it. That is democracy.”

But Oburu Odinga responded to Raila and Sifuna: “When Raila talked in Kakamega, he said Sifuna also has rights to express his personal views. I also have my right to make my views.

And my views are that the arrangements we have with the Kenya Kwanza government is an arrangement which was mandated by the party ODM. If you are opposed to ODM and you want to bolt out, could you kindly put it officially to the party?

I cannot allow someone to abuse us. Can someone tell Sifuna to ask Ababu Namwamba, who was a powerful ODM secretary general, what happened to him? You are just a balloon.”

ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga said: “I am the national chairperson of ODM. Our leader is Raila, we know him and he has never lied to us. In March this year, we went to KICC and signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for a broad-based government.

We are in a broad-based government and as the national chairperson, I want to say here, someone talking contrary to the party position is not talking on behalf of the party.

He will need to explain to the party who has sent him.”

The clock may be ticking faster for Raila to galvanize the support base and party ahead of the 2027 elections.

By Anderson Ojwang

The parliamentary by-elections in Kasipul and Ugunja constituencies have opened a new chapter in Nyanza’s political dispensation, with political parties scrambling for candidates.

Various political parties have in the recent past embarked on a hunt drive to woo top candidates to fly their parties’ colors in the November by-elections.

The move has opened the region as a new battleground in the 2027 general elections for the presidential votes and other elective posts.

Previously, ODM has been the predominant party in the region, which forced other parties to give Nyanza a wide berth in past general elections.

An ODM nomination certificate guaranteed candidates election to various seats, and aspirants jostled and fought over the ticket. Losing aspirants were left punctured, and the majority have never recovered from the shock.

The party ticket has been the hottest market commodity in the party’s history and is often auctioned to the highest bidder, while losers have been left to lick their wounds.

Currently, the party of independence KANU of Gideon Moi, the Wiper party of former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, the United Progressive Alliance associated with former Internal Security Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, and other fringe parties have been on a candidate hunt.

KANU was the first to embark on a candidate hunt two months ago and was able to secure the signatures of some of the top candidates in Ugunja and Kasipul.

Wiper has already secured a candidate for Kasipul but is still hunting for a candidate for Ugunja, while UPA has also secured a candidate for Kasipul and, as of last evening, was in consultation with a candidate to fly the party ticket in Ugunja.

Some of the top aspirants for Kasipul have opted to contest as independent candidates, including Robert Riaga and Philip Aroko.

In both Kasipul and Ugunja respectively, the ODM party leadership has been split in the middle, with each faction supporting their candidate.

In Kasipul, the battle is seen to be between Governor Gladys Wanga, who supports the son of the slain immediate former MP Charles Ongondo Were, Boyd Were, against Siaya Senator Dr. Oburu Oginga and his sister Dr. Wenwa Odinga, who support Newton Kepha Ogada.

In Siaya, the battle is between Cabinet Secretary for Energy Opiyo Wandayi, who wants his immediate former CDF manager Moses Omondi to inherit his seat, and a candidate supported by Siaya Governor James Orengo.

Orengo and Wandayi have fallen out, with the latter being viewed as nursing an ambition to challenge Orengo for the gubernatorial seat.

In a post on his X account on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, Kalonzo said his party will present a candidate in Kasipul and emphasized that leadership was about service, integrity, and standing with the people in every corner of the country.

“@TheWiperParty is ready for the upcoming by-elections. We believe leadership is about service, integrity, and standing with the people in every corner of our country,” the leader posted.

“The party now has a new face – Wiper is going national. The new name will be Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) so that our Gen Z are fully included,” Musyoka said during a tour of Ukambani.

Political analysts argued that the successful UDA recruitment and party elections in Nyanza ushered in a new political dispensation in the region.

The successful UDA party elections and opening of party offices up to ward level opened the region to other parties, and this explains the current scramble.

Similarly, the emerging possibility of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga not contesting the presidency in 2027 has opened up the region for grabs.

Equally, the declaration by top ODM leaders that they will support President William Ruto’s second-term bid and Raila’s recent statement that the broad-based government will go beyond the 2027 elections has bolstered opposition parties to create their presence in Nyanza.

Political analyst Mr. Michael Agwanda said Nyanza is witnessing a new political era that will open it to competitive politics and allow electorates to choose the right candidates.

Agwanda said for the first time, ODM will now be forced to use political party funds to sponsor their candidates, as the burden was previously left on the candidates to shoulder.

“We are witnessing a special moment in Nyanza. The people will now have the opportunity to make a choice. This is going to open the political space in Nyanza and nurture democracy,” he said.

Agwanda said even if ODM wins all the by-elections, a statement shall have been made, and it will never be the same in Nyanza’s political landscape.

By Hope Barbra

It’s all gun blazing. With only 48 hours to the Kasipul Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) nomination, all the guns are now trained on Homa Bay governor Gladys Wanga’s candidate Boyd Were.

After a hide-and-seek game, Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga has finally come out to campaign for his preferred candidate, Mr. Newton Kepha Ogada, for the ODM ticket.

Joining the fray are the Kasipul professionals led by Engineer Tom Awino Okoko and Balwin Oluoch, who in the last three days have held a series of strategic meetings and rallies across the constituency.

Magwanga, the former area MP, has come out to ask voters to reject Wanga’s candidate Boyd, the son of his bitter rival, the slain immediate former MP Charles Ongondo Were.

“When the former Kasipul MP Peter Owidi died, did the party give a direct ticket to the relatives? And what about former Ndhiwa MP Orwa Ojode, was the wife given the ticket? Even in Malava, the son of the late Moses Mululu Injende was not given a direct ticket and he lost at the nomination. We must reject the project,” he said.

Governor Wanga, when contacted for comment, wrote: “No comment.”

Magwanga’s decision to oppose his boss’s candidate confirms the fallout the two leaders have had in the last two years and the possibility that they will not seek re-election on a joint ticket.

Earlier, Magwanga had declined Wanga’s overtures to support her candidate and has now gone out to campaign for his preferred candidate. This could be a pointer to torrid moments ahead in Homa Bay County politics.

Cabinet Secretary for Treasury John Mbadi at the weekend announced that he will not contest the Homa Bay gubernatorial seat in the 2027 election. Now the battle line points to be between Wanga and Magwanga.

Earlier, the battle for Kasipul had been billed to be between Wanga, who is the ODM national chairman, against Siaya Senator Dr. Oburu Oginga and Dr. Wenwa Odinga, elder sibling to ODM party leader Raila Odinga.

The battle for the ODM ticket pits Boyd, Ogada, Okindo Majiwa, Dr. Adel Ottoman, and George Ajoh Mbuta.

Several aspirants who had shown interest in the party ticket opted out over what they termed manipulation of the exercise by a section of top party leadership.

Among the top candidates who opted to seek alternative vehicles are Philip Aroko and Robert Riaga, who are contesting as independent candidates, while Sam Otiende will run on a party associated with former Internal Security Cabinet Secretary Dr. Fred Matiang’i, United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Gideon Moi’s party KANU has also identified a candidate and has been joined in the race by Kalonzo Musyoka’s party, Wiper.

For the first time in history, the excitement and scramble for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket in Nyanza has thawed, with leading aspirants for the Kasipul parliamentary by-election seeking alternative vehicles.

Ogada is banking on his community support for widows, where he has constructed 6,000 houses in the county. In Kasipul, he has built 2,000 for widows and the vulnerable.

Ogada also runs a hospital which he built in 2013 and has an orphanage that supports 211 children, most of whom are schooling in his institution.

He has held several health outreaches in Kasipul and several parts of the county and country.

“I have undertaken several development projects not only in Kasipul but in Homa Bay County and the other counties. One of the beneficiaries of my education program and orphanage is currently studying medicine in the USA.

My work speaks for itself. I have a development record unmatched by any of my competitors and that is why I want to be the MP to escalate the development,” he said.

Boyd is relying on his father’s achievements and that of the county government to win the ODM ticket and eventually the election.

Boyd has been traversing the constituency campaigning and he is not a pushover. This explains why Magwanga and the professionals have come out gun blazing.

He hopes that with Wanga and other ODM MPs’ support he will win the ticket and the election to inherit his father’s seat.

He is also relying on the support of the Kachien clan—his backyard—plus his father’s and Wanga’s networks to win the nomination.

“Boyd has conducted a powerful campaign. He has presented a different image and resonates well with the youths. He is not a pushover in the contest. It is a two-horse race and can go either way,” said a section of residents interviewed.

Wanga has directed county government employees from the area to campaign for Boyd and even prevailed over her CEC Dr. Joash Aloo to forgo his ambition in favor of her candidate.

The decision by Wanga to declare support for Boyd has divided the party right in the middle and forced most of the aspirants to seek alternative vehicles for the by-election.

“We are on the ground to write history. We want to have a fresh start in Kasipul and that is why we have rolled out a serious campaign.

We are not leaving anything to chance. Kasipul people must be allowed to elect a leader of their own choice,” Oluoch said.

Oluoch said the professionals, under the leadership of Eng. Okoko, have decided to comb the ground and protect the votes from any form of rigging.

ODM is reputed for nomination anomalies, with the party leadership known to interfere with the exercise or on occasion award direct tickets to their preferred candidates.

The by-election is crucial and strategic for both Wanga and Magwanga ahead of the 2027 general elections, where they may face each other at the ballot box for the county seat.

For Wanga, Ongondo’s demise left a vacuum that she must fill with her preferred candidate to checkmate Magwanga.

Ongondo was the checkmate to Magwanga, and the two were bitter rivals who rarely shared a podium. Ongondo was used by Wanga to tame her deputy and control his political influence in the constituency.

For Magwanga, he wants to have a say in the constituency that he once represented for two terms before he decided to have a stab at the gubernatorial seat in the 2017 and 2022 elections.

Kasipul remains his fulcrum if he intends to pursue his ambition, and he wants a new MP allied to him to take over from Ongondo.