By Anderson Ojwang

After 38 years, dark clouds of the curse in the office of vice presidency is back once again, hanging and fast descending into the mountain and threatening to consume its leadership.

The thick, dark political clouds have engulfed the mountain with tremors threatening to rupture anytime, while sparks of thunderstorms sweep through the once sleepy and united East and West villages of Mumbi’s house.

After nearly four decades, of good tidings, sitting on the country’s white house in the Mountain, the House of Mumbi now has to contend with the curse that fell their son in 1988.

The axe of curse first fell the Mountain, when their son the late Dr. Josephat Karanja was hounded out of the office with impeachment and offered to resign and was subsequently relegated to political obituary.

Interestingly, Karanja was appointed to the seat to replace another mountaineer, the late Mwai Kibaki who later became the country’s third president in the 2022 elections.

But today, the country’s Deputy President  Rigathi Gachagua is under siege and faces the curse of the office and could easily step into Karanja’s footsteps if all factors remain constant.

Rigathi, the Truthful Man may soon have to come face to face with his political destiny and historical moments replaying itself.

 Rigathi is currently watching history replay itself and threaten to forestall his politics just like it did to Karanja.

Rigathi just like the country’s fifth vice president the late Karanja who served for two years under former President Daniel Moi, is a man under siege.

While Rigathi is the country’s ninth deputy president, his boss President William Ruto is the fifth president of Kenya, what a historical coincidence.

Similarly, President Moi, from the Valley was the president when Karanja from the Mountain was hounded out of the office and subsequently resigned, and today history could be replaying President William Ruto is from the Valley and his deputy from the Mountain.

Karanja too was felled by his own sword, opting to resign as the vice president serving between 1988 and 1989 rather than be dragged through political muck. He was accused of behaving like a demi-god by the late Kuria Kanyingi, a lowly motor vehicle inspector.

Then the cantankerous Embakasi MP, David Mwenje, assigned himself the role of bringing down the bespectacled giant. He named Karanja in Parliament, leading to the formation of a commission of inquiry to hear how Karanja had misused his powers.

Last Weekend former UDA secretary General Cleophas Malala claimed the impeachment motion against Rigathi was to be introduced by ODM MPs and cautioned the president from falling into the political trap.

On Monday, Tana River Senator Dunston  Mungatana filed a censure motion against Rigathi in the Senate, claiming the Deputy President had engaged in divisive politics and betrayed his oath of office among other claims.

Similarly, Valley’s Iron Lady Gladys Shollei, who is the deputy speaker of the assembly said Rigathi should be ready to be impeached.

Shollei, who is the women’s representative of Uasin Gishu county, the President’s homeland told her people that they should not be worried about Ruto when she was around and would protect him.

“  I want to tell Gachagua, I will take you home. I want to put Rigathi Gachagua on notice. You are going to be impeached.  I am the iron lady. Nobody can touch Ruto when I am there,” she said.

Senator Ledama Ole Kina, who is currently in the USA with President Ruto and immediate former ODM leader Raila Odinga posted on his X handle “ It seems your goose is cooked Mr. I hate to break the News to you Mr. Truthful Man, the decision has been made. Waiting to vote”.

Last week when he visited Marikiti market in Nairobi, Rigathi warned “ Those who are planning my impeachment, please don’t try me. Impeachment is only meant to sell for me fear,”.

Gachagua asserted that the legislators are among his political detractors, claiming that they have been bribed by influential figures in government to tarnish his reputation and hound him out of office.  

“Nilichaguliwa na wakenya; sikuchaguliwa na wabunge. (Lakini) nyinyi mnakusanya wajumbe, mnawapatia pesa na kuwahonga, ati wauzie Rigathi Gachagua uoga. Nilichaguliwa na Wakenya na wao ndio watanitoa kwa kiti, wakati ukifika. ( I was elected by Kenyans  and not the legislators. They cannot sell fear to Rigathi Gachagua. I was elected by Kenyans and they are the ones who can remove me) he said.”

Analysts agree that it is a do-or-die battle for both President Ruto and his deputy as their political careers hinge on the outcome.

They said either Ruto or Rigathi would try to outfox one another in the battle of the Titan and the consequences will be far-reaching.

Political analyst Mr. Billy Mijungu said the sword is heavy on Rigathi and he has to do everything to survive or else he will fall into the path of Dr Karanja to the obituary.

“This is the battle of life for Rigathi. If he is impeached, politically, he becomes a past tense in the country matrix. But if he survives, he is the man to beat in the 2027 presidential elections,” he said.

For Ruto, this is a battle that he must win. He must be shrewd like his mentor former president Daniel Moi to survive the political storm from the mountain.

“With Raila on Ruto’s side, he has an edge to affect the impeachment. Because if he fails, he shall have been weakened ahead of the next presidential elections. It’s like playing a final match. There must be a winner whichever way,’ he said.

By Anderson Ojwang

Could the leader of Azimio La Umoja, Raila Odinga, have faced significant opposition in his political stronghold of Nyanza, leading to his loss in the last presidential election? 

And could the boycott have indirectly contributed to President William Ruto’s victory in the last election?

These are some of the tough questions that have emerged after the election and various data interrogations could give a glimpse of an answer to it. 

Data from the Independent Electoral Boundary Commission (IEBC) shows Raila’s presidential Waterloo could have been from his birthplace of Nyanza which catapulted him to national and international prominence.

In the last presidential elections, Raila lost to his opponent President Ruto by 227,311 votes after he garnered 6,942,830 against the latter 7,170,141. 

Ruto rode to victory after acquiring 50.5 percent against Raila’s 48.8 percent in the final results released by IEBC.

Statistics from the IEBC portal show that Ruto managed only voters 74,857 in the four counties of Luo Nyanza. But as Ruto performed dismally in Nyanza, Raila too had his motor jamming on the road.

The four counties namely Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori have been the bedrock of Raila’s politics.

But in the last general elections, voters from the region could have negated Raila’s fifth bid when  593,607 voters failed to participate in the elections.

The four counties had registered a total of 2,160,439 voters ahead of the election but at the ballot, Raila only managed to secure  1,566,832 votes which denied him presidency in the grueling contest. 

This accounted for  30 percent of registered voters from Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori counties who did not participate in the elections at all.

Interestingly, in the controversial 2007 presidential election, the turnout in Nyanza was overwhelming and rock solid.

 The incumbent President Mwai Kibaki won by garnering 4,58,721 votes against Raila’s 4,352,993 with each getting  46.42 percent and 44.07 percent respectively.

Data analysis from the IEBC portal showed Kisumu County had registered 606,754 voters and  419,962 votes were cast at the elections.

Siaya county had 533,595 registered voters with 371,201 turning out to vote. 

In all these counties the voter turnout stood at 71 percent for Siaya, Kisumu county was at 72 percent, Homa Bay and Migori counties tied at 74 percent respectively.

In Migori County 469,019 registered voters while those who turned to vote were 294,034 while Homa Bay had  551,071 registered voters and 399,813 cast the votes. 

Unlike in 2007,  when Nyanza voted for Raila to be a near man and was able to marshal most of the votes from all the constituencies, in the last general election, the story was different.

Statistics show that in 2007 in all the constituencies in now  Migori and Homa Bay counties, the turnout stood at over 86 percent.

For instance in Homa Bay, Ndhiwa constituency, the voter turnout was at 93.74 with Raila getting 57,380 of the registered voters of 64,529.

In Karachuonyo constituency the voter turnout was at 95.37 percent with Raila garnering 59008 votes out of the 62,040 registered voters. 

In Mbita constituency the voter turnout was at 95.57 with Raila securing 38,451 votes out of 40,451 registered voters.

In Gwais, the turnout was at 92.68 percent with Raila garnering 31,605 votes out of 34,394 registered voters while in Kasipul Kabondo the voter turnout was 88.66 percent with Raila taking 68,631 of the 78,171 registered voters.

In Migori county, the trend was similar with Nyatike recording 94.83 percent turnout and Raila garnering 48,655 of 51,682 votes.

In Uriri constituency the voter turnout stood at 87.07 percent with Raila securing 33,661 of the 40601 votes while in  Migori constituency the turnout was at 85.43 with Raila getting 51,648 votes out of  62,070 registered voters. 

In Rongo constituency, the voter turnout was at 85.46 percent with Raila garnering 60,286 votes out of the 70,999 registered voters.

In Kisumu county, the voter turnout stood out at 88 percent with Kisumu Rural constituency had a voter turnout of 84.51 percent with Raila getting 44,129 votes out of 52,937 registered voters.

In Siaya for instance  Alego constituency had a voter turnout of 88.11 percent with Raila garnering 71,188 of the 71,188 registered voters while  Bondo constituency also had 85.45 percent with Raila getting 53,202 votes of the 62,352 registered voters.

Political analysts agreed that the number of dissenting voices in Nyanza could be on the rise and somehow have undermined Raila’s presidential bid to a larger extent.

They attributed the boycott largely to flawed ODM nomination, issuance of tickets, poor mobilization, and lack of competition among political parties in the region.

They said for instance in the last party nominations, the party opted to give direct tickets to all the gubernatorial candidates and this did not sit well with the voters.

For instance, in Homa Bay county where the party leadership opted to prevail upon the aspirants including party National Chairman John  Mbadi, former MP Oyugi Magwanga, former Homa Bay County Secretary Isaiah Ogwe, Kuppet Secretary General Akelo Misore in favor of Gladys Wanga.

Former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero rebelled against the arrangement and opted to face off with Wanga at the ballot where he lost.

Kisumu Advocate Joshua Nyamori said flawed party nomination and issuance of direct certificates to candidates have negated Raila’s presidential bid and made a section of voters to boycott the exercise.

“From the IEBC data, it is clear that 30 percent of voters from Nyanza never voted. This is a serious concern that if not addressed will continue to affect candidates from the region,” he said.

Nyamori said voter registration mobilization is usually funded and conducted by aspirants and once they are rigged out, their supporters usually fail to vote.

“Out of frustration supporters of disfranchised aspirants opt not to vote. Equally, the affected aspirants also take low key in the election and this usually implies low voter turnout,’ he explained.

By Habil Onyango

A political storm is bubbling in the ODM’s ‘political bedroom’  of Homa Bay County as United Democratic  Alliance (UDA) eyes the region.

For the last two years, UDA has been flexing its muscle in the county and recently conducted peaceful grassroots elections, the first of it’s kind in the region.

After four decades, UDA became the first ruling party to open a branch office in Nyanza and mainly Homa Bay town that was attended by President William Ruto.

With the exit of the immediate former Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga from the local political scene, Homa Bay County, the party’s bedroom is now becoming a battleground.

The battle has further been compounded by the current political alliance between Ruto and Raila that has birthed the broad-based government and thawed the once-emerging tension and suspicion by the two blocs.

Homa Bay the heart of the ODM party is currently facing an unprecedented future with the exit of its top leadership namely Raila, deputy party leaders Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho, and national chairman John Mbadi to the Kenya Kwanza government where they currently hold cabinet posts.

But the changes in the party’s national leadership structure stirred a political jostling for the Homa Bay branch chair between area senator Moses Kajwang, MPs Ongondo Were (Kasipul), Adipo Okuome (Karachuonyo) and Martin  Owino( Ndhiwa).

However, the party settled on former  Homa Bay Deputy Governor  Hamilton Orata, who was the vice chair to succeed county chair Gladys Wanga.

The exit witnessed the entry of Kisumu Governor Prof Anyang Nyong’o as the interim Party leader, Wanga as the national chairman, Kisii Governor Simba Arati, his Mombasa counterpart Abdulllswamad Sherrif Nassir and  Senator Godfrey Osotsi as the deputy party leaders.

In the last general elections, the County Governor, Senator, Woman Representative, all eight Members of Parliament, and 32 out of the 40 elected Members of the County Assembly seats were elected on the  ODM ticket.

President Ruto has made history as the first head of state to visit Homa Bay nine times in a span of less than two years while in Office.

On his first visit to Nyanza region where he attended a church service in Homa Bay immediately after being sworn almost all the elected leaders on ODM ticket boycotted the event.

However, with his continued frequent tours in the County, Ruto has become the darling of the locals and even the elected leaders.

Ruto in his past visits initiated and commissioned various development projects in the County and even presided over the launching of the UDA County Branch Office.

Wanga now faces the daunting task of keeping ODM visible and vibrant against the onslaught from the UDA fraternity.

UDA had already initiated a membership registration drive in the County and other Counties in the Luo Nyanza region; however, this was stopped by the anti-Finance Bill demonstrations by a section of Kenyans.

However last week, the County UDA Executive Committee members re-launched the exercise vowing to clinch the majority of the elective positions in the County in the 2027 General elections.

Led by the former Nairobi Governor Evance Kidero the team said as the Luo Community, they will support Ruto’s re-election comes 2027 General elections.

“Already we have managed to register a sizeable number in UDA in Homa Bay county and we hope the number will go up,” he said.

But Karachuonyo ODM chairman George Maigo said ODM recruitment has been ongoing and that Homa Bay county remains the ‘bedroom’ of the party

“We are least perturbed by the recent announcement by UDA on their recruitment drive. That is just a cosmetic gesture that has no effect on the resident’s loyalty to the party,” he said.

Maigo welcomed UDA to undertake its recruitment drive saying currently the two national leaders are working together.

“We have been in this political situation and UDA presence in Homa Bay doesn’t bother us. Voters are loyal to the party,” he said.