By Anderson Ojwang

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) may have won the just-concluded three parliamentary by-elections in its strongholds of Nyanza and the Coastal region, but the party could be walking into a slumber slide with emerging worrying statistics and a potent growing rebellion.

The statistics in the Ugunja and Kasipul by-election victories are so telling and worrying for the party ahead of the 2027 general elections that they cast aspersions on ODM’s future.

Similarly, the loss of Kariobangi North ward by-election to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s party DCP, and the failure to field candidates in Kakamega and Nyamira counties in the just-concluded by-elections—regions that were the late Raila Odinga’s strongholds—is baffling.

Low voter turnout — or is it a potent protest against the party?
In the 2022 presidential election, President William Ruto defeated Raila by only 200,000 votes to be declared the fifth president of Kenya. Raila got 6,942,980 against Ruto’s 7,176,141.

Siaya County alone, with a total of 533,595 registered voters, gave Raila 371,092 against Ruto’s 4,320, with 376,354 having voted.
Siaya alone, with 157,241 voters who elected not to vote, could have forced a rerun.

In Kisumu County, with 606,754 registered voters, Raila got 419,997 against Ruto’s 10,011. A total of 431,005 votes were cast, while 175,749 did not vote.

In Migori County, with 469,019 registered voters, Raila got 294,136 votes against Ruto’s 52,525, accounting for 347,773 votes cast, while 121,246 did not vote.

Homa Bay County had 551,071 registered voters, with Raila getting 399,784 votes against Ruto’s 3,497, while a total of 404,112 votes were cast. 146,959 did not vote.

From the above statistics, the four counties had a total of 2,095,863 registered voters, of which 601,195 did not vote—accounting for 28.7 percent.

The question, therefore: Why has there been a significant decline in voters during general elections in the region? Could it be a silent rebellion?

The answer could easily be derived from the just-concluded Ugunja and Kasipul by-elections.

The Ugunja and Kasipul by-elections opened a can of worms on what could have been affecting ODM for ages—flawed and manipulated party primaries.

In Ugunja and Kasipul, there were allegations of flawed nominations, which later reared their ugly head in the by-elections.

For instance, in Ugunja, with 60,114 registered voters, only 15,017 voted, translating to 24.9 percent turnout, while 45,097 voters did not turn out. A powerful statement.

The ODM candidate won with 9,447 votes. In the ODM primaries, the top three candidates shared 9,451 votes, with Moses winning with 5,326. Interestingly, Moses won the by-election with 9,447—a drop of 11 votes from the total garnered by the top three contenders in the party primary—while 5,570 electors voted against the party.

In the Kasipul ODM nomination, a total of 22,727 party members participated in the exercise, which was won by Boyd Were after getting 22,727 votes.

Were won the by-election by garnering 16,819 votes, meaning that along the way the party lost 5,908 loyal members, accounting for 26 percent of those who participated in the nomination. This statistic is extremely telling and worrying.

The voter turnout was 36 percent, accounting for 31,077 voters from the 67,017 registered voters in the constituency.

The joint opposition garnered 14,258 votes, translating to 45.9 percent, against ODM’s 16,819, which translates to 54.1 percent. A worrying trend in the absence of Raila in the 2027 general elections.

The reality remains that a majority of voters did not turn up in the last general election after the party issued direct tickets and denied several aspirants the opportunity to contest. The silent protest cost Raila the presidency.

Recently, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino claimed that ODM would not give him the party ticket to contest for the Nairobi gubernatorial race and preferred the incumbent Johnson Sakaja over him.

This forced the new party leader, Dr. Oburu Odinga, to summon and reassure him that the party would conduct a free and fair election.

But old habits die hard, and with 2027 approaching, the party may revert to old habits and issue direct tickets or manipulate the nomination exercise. Time will tell, as this is likely to lead to protest and rebellion.

Waning influence in Luhya and Kisii counties
Raila turned Luhya and Kisii counties into his strongholds, and ODM was the party of choice. But the recent by-elections and failure to field candidates in parliamentary and civic by-elections left the party colorless in the region.

In Kisii County, Deputy Party Leader of Jubilee Dr. Fred Matiang’i has rattled the vote bloc and threatens ODM’s existence in the region.

UPA, a party associated with him, won the Ekerenyo ward through Jeremiah Ongaro, while Jackson Mogusu of PDP won Nyansiongo ward. The two parties are allied to Matiang’i.

In Kakamega County, ODM failed to field a candidate in Malava constituency and Kisii East ward, while in Bungoma County’s Chwele-Kabuchai ward, it also did not have a candidate.

The emergence of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya in Luhya politics is also rattling ODM and outfoxing it in the region.

Loss of Kariobangi North ward — tip of the iceberg of what awaits the party
Gachagua’s DCP won the Kariobangi North ward through David Warui, while ODM’s candidate came a distant third in what was previously known as their stronghold.

ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna is the Nairobi Senator, while Babu wants to be governor, and the duo enjoy massive support in the city. But they never went out of their way to aggressively campaign for the party candidate, which could have contributed to the loss.

The Oburu Odinga and Broad-Based Factor
The decision to confirm Oburu as the party leader has split the party down the middle, with some arguing that Kisumu Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o was still the party leader at the time of transition.

Winnie Odinga recently called for an NDC to elect new officials, while Babu also expressed interest in the seat.

The broad-based arrangement has also split the party, with one wing led by National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, Oburu, and Junet Mohammed supporting it, while another wing led by Siaya Governor James Orengo—including Sifuna and Babu—opposes it.

The demise of Raila leaves the party in a precarious position, and if not handled well, it may plunge into the fate that befell Ford-K, founded by Raila’s father, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

By Hope Barbra

Buoyed by Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) victories in the just-concluded three by-elections in Kasipul, Ugunja, and Magarini constituencies, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has declared she is ready to face off in a grueling battle with her opponents for the gubernatorial race.

Wanga also admitted there is a split in her government and promised to crack the whip on those who do not want to work but speak ill of her administration despite working for her.

Speaking at a funeral in Homa Bay, Wanga said she is adequately prepared to face her opponents for the gubernatorial seat in 2027, in what she termed a battle royale.

“Kom mar governor abedie higni apar. Kendo ng’ama obiro ni dwa dware odhi romo gin yar Wangaya ka. Athuon ka adhi kendo ka aduogo.”
(“I will serve my two terms as governor. Whoever wants to challenge me will meet the daughter of Wangaya. I am brave and not a coward,” she said.)

Wanga promised her opponents a battle of titans in the 2027 gubernatorial election, saying that even if she loses, the victor will appreciate her might.

“Wadwa lawore e dier pap kaye kweli. Ma be ka en wuoyi oloyo to bende owinjo ndi.”
(“It will be a fierce battle in the campaigns. If he is a man and he defeats me, it will not be a walk in the park,” she said.)

Wanga wondered why, despite her development projects, there was always a plot against women, yet a former governor who held the position and did not perform was never criticized or plotted against.

“Mine ocha malich, to chuo kata ka ne timo nono to onge ng’ama wuoye. Miyo kata tiyo to bura okinyi kod odichieng. Dhako ni oha kure ok owuog Homa Bay.”
(“Women are greatly downtrodden. Men, even when they fail, nobody plots against them. For women, meetings are held day and night. Some even ask if I am from Homa Bay, yet they know I’ve been married here for 25 years,” she said.)

Wanga is likely to face off with her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, in the race, and the political marriage between them has collapsed. The late Raila Odinga prevailed upon Magwanga to become Wanga’s running mate in the last general election.

Magwanga now has his eyes set on the gubernatorial seat and did not support Wanga and ODM candidate Boyd Were in the Kasipul by-election. He instead supported Independent candidate Philip Aroko, who lost to Boyd.

Wanga admitted that some of the people she employed in her government were disloyal and said she will soon crack the whip.

“Nyocha amiyo jo Kanyada tich, to jo Kanyada ma dwaro tich ema nyalo tiyo.
Ng’ato ok nyal tiyo e sirkandi to owuoyo marach e wi sirkandi. Nikech sirkal manyo tek. Ne awuotho e piny ka malich ka asedo ka nyamarende kendo agonyo ma abarora ndasi.
Mondo eka abed governor ma Homa Bay.”
(“I employed people from Kanyada. Only those from Kanyada who want to work will work with me. Someone cannot work in your government and still speak ill of it. It was a big struggle for me to become governor,” she said.)

Wanga asked those unhappy with her administration to pack and go so she can bring in new people.

“To chieng’ ma owinjo ni sirkal rach ma ok onyal tiye, to ogwe tawo oweyo to ja-Kanyada machielo obed. Mano ekaka gini timore. Koso jo Kanyada orumo ma nyalo tiyo.”
(“If they are not happy with the government, let them resign so we bring in other Kanyada people who can work,” she said.)

Wanga said she will sack those who do not want to work in her government and stated she has adopted a new mentality.

“Omiyo an be koro awuok mager, adwaro pidho rasta sani. Ng’ama ok dwa tich inje. Ng’ama dwaro tiyo ne jopiny ndani. Ng’ama dwaro pesa ma ikawo here and there inje.
Ng’ama oyie ni nyalo tiyo ne jopiny kod misara michule cha ndani.”
(“I will no longer tolerate any insubordination. I have a new mentality now. If you want to work, good. If you don’t, you face the boot. I will not allow corruption in my government,” she said.)

The ODM national chairperson said she will no longer tolerate any misbehavior in her government and may request new officers.

“Mano e mbaka ma an adwa goyo koro. Kama achopie ni.
Ka anyisou ni miya uru joma oyie tich, utim kamano. Umiya joma oyie tich. Wati mondo water Homa Bay mbele.”
(“That is the stand I have taken now. If I ask you to give me new people willing to work, then do so. We must move Homa Bay forward,” she said.)

In the curtain raiser for the Homa Bay gubernatorial race, Wanga came out victorious, but she now has to face a combined force ahead of the 2027 elections.

By Anderson Ojwang’

The mountain roared and shook. Tremors and shockwaves rocked Murima. Tables turned—from chest-thumping to premium tears—a self-declared king of the mountain reduced to a humbled mountain cat.

That is how the political earthquake erupted in Mt Kenya, leaving beleaguered former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua reeling from a shock defeat in the Mbeere North by-election, won by UDA candidate Leonard Wamuthende.

And the narrative by Gachagua that President William Ruto would not succeed in dividing Mt Kenya, and that he was the ultimate voice of the region, came tumbling down after the loss.

With the by-election over, Mt Kenya has emerged as a battleground between Ruto and the united opposition ahead of the 2027 general elections. If the results are anything to go by, the race for the vote-rich region will be hard fought and hard won.

Gachagua, who had pitched tent to campaign for DP candidate Newton Karish after withdrawing his DCP candidate, lost another highly billed duel with his successor Prof. Abraham Kithure Kindiki.

For Gachagua, the shock defeat was a reality check, sending him back to the drawing board. The assumption that he was the leader of the mountain was indeed a mirage, proving that the region is divided into two main political blocs.

Gachagua had dared President William Ruto to join the fray during the Mbeere North campaigns, but the President gave it a wide berth and instead enlisted his deputy to lead the contest.

“Wewe Kasongo kuja. Mimi niko area na watu wa Mbeere. Tuoneze we kivumbi sasa. Hapana tuma mfanyakazi. Wewe Kasongo kuja mwenyewe… Huyu Kasongo watu wa Mbeere wamekula pesa yake, amenyolewa?” Gachagua said.

For Kindiki, he delivered on his promise by slaying the mountain Goliath, staking his claim as the biblical David of Mt Kenya and as a political leader.

“Unakuja na kimbele mbele na kiherehere. Wewe wacha hizo bwana na uniachane na mimi. Wewe Goliath, umetesa watu siku mingi. Siku zako zimeisha—Alhamisi tunakumalizia. Fire si fire,” he said at a rally.

In the by-election, Kindiki deflated the self-declared leader of the mountain and claimed stake as the political leader of Murima, heightening a new wave of rivalry and tension in the region.

“Hii tabia ya kujitangaza yenyewe eti wewe ndiye mkubwa wa mlima—nani alikuchagua mkubwa wa mlima? I am the senior-most political leader in Mt Kenya region for the avoidance of doubt,” Kindiki said.

He taunted Gachagua as a small man, claiming he never saw him during the struggle for former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto at the ICC in The Hague.

“When Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto had a problem in The Hague, I was their lawyer. I didn’t see him there. We fought against the white man called Ocampo and defeated him. We brought home Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto.
So who is this other one speaking? He is a small man—it’s only that he has inflated his muscles and is troubleshooting.”

This election reaffirmed Kindiki’s first victory over Gachagua during the 2022 search for Ruto’s running mate.

He wrote on his X handle:
“Congratulations to the respective winners in yesterday’s by-elections… The winners now assume the crucial role of rallying communities to unite for the collective good and expedite development. Faya.”

CS Geoffrey Ruku said Kindiki would not be a one-term deputy president but would serve a second term and eventually become Kenya’s sixth president.

“2027 tunachagua President William Ruto na Kithure Kindiki… Na tukimaliza 2032, sisi kama mlima tutaungana na Kenya yote kuhakikisha Kindiki amekuwa rais. Tunaona mbali kama giraffe.”

For President Ruto, his brigades have delivered and passed the test against the united opposition, finally confining Gachagua to the political corner he had long desired.

The loss of the Mbeere North seat leaves Gachagua vulnerable, and the notion that he controls the Mt Kenya vote bloc has been debunked.

This gives Ruto a powerful impetus to seek at least 50 percent of Mt Kenya votes to win the 2027 elections.