By Anderson Ojwang

The ongoing Middle East war is likely to hurt the country’s economy and lead to a rise in the cost of living, a report by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) has revealed.

The report says a successful blockage of the Persian Gulf would pose a severe threat to Kenya’s economic stability, primarily because the region is a critical source of essential energy imports and a significant market for Kenyan goods.

“The most salient risks and challenges Kenya would face: the most immediate and crippling impact would be on Kenya’s fuel supply due to the dependence on oil imports from countries situated in the immediate neighbourhood of the Persian Gulf,” it says.

Dependence on Gulf Petroleum

Kenya imports US$4.39 billion in refined petroleum, with its primary supplies for total imports coming from the United Arab Emirates (US$2.52B), Oman (US$532M), Kuwait (US$486M), and Saudi Arabia (US$423M).

A successful blockage or reduction in shipping activity and safety in the Persian Gulf would halt these shipments, with knock-on effects in the form of domestic fuel shortages and skyrocketing transport costs.

Secondary Export Loss

Interestingly, refined petroleum is also Kenya’s second-largest export at US$907M.

This suggests that Kenya acts as a regional distribution hub for imported petroleum. As a result, a supply cutoff would simultaneously endanger this significant revenue stream.

Category Value at Risk
Key Partner(s) Affected
Energy Imports — US$4.39 Billion — UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia
Key Exports — US$979 Million — UAE, Saudi Arabia
Industrial Imports — US$6.01 Billion — China (via Indian Ocean lanes)

Beyond Fuel

Kenya relies on the Indian Ocean trade routes, and these are proximate to the Persian Gulf.

This trade route would be heavily destabilized by an extended conflict, with additional knock-on effects on imports and exports for Kenya.

Food Security

Kenya imported US$987M in palm oil, US$625M in wheat, and US$494M in rice.

Large portions of this domestic demand are supplied through imports, with food coming from Malaysia (US$1.09B) and India (US$2.54B).

Insecurity in sea lanes often leads to increased maritime insurance premiums and shipping reroutes that would make these staples more costly.

Manufacturing Inputs

Kenya’s industrial sector relies on US$452M of hot-rolled iron and US$557M of packaged medicaments.

China is Kenya’s largest import origin at US$6.01B for a variety of products. Regional instability affecting Indian Ocean shipping lanes would delay these vital supplies.

Trade

An extended conflict in the Persian Gulf would close the door on some of Kenya’s most lucrative trade partners.

As reported, retaliation by the Islamic Republic of Iran has made the UAE an unwilling party to the conflict.

The horizontal escalation of the conflict would delay the resumption of commercial shipping trade through the Persian Gulf with the following adverse consequences.

Collapse of Imports from UAE

The United Arab Emirates is Kenya’s third-largest export destination, accounting for US$754M in trade.

Kenya also exports US$225M worth of goods to Saudi Arabia.

An extended blockage would effectively cut off access to these markets for Kenyan agricultural produce such as tea (US$1.4B), cut flowers (US$780M), and tropical fruits (US$320M) annually.

Kenya’s Exports and Destinations

With a total import bill of US$23.6B against only US$8.74B in exports, Kenya already operates at a significant trade deficit.

The added costs of a regional conflict would likely trigger a severe currency devaluation and a balance-of-payments crisis.

Based on the profile of trade in 2024, an extended conflict in the Persian Gulf means Kenya would face an asymmetric risk in its imports compared to exports.

This is because exports are far more diversified, with greater demand being met through regional partners and through North American and European markets that are less affected by the conflict whose epicentre is the Persian Gulf.

On the other hand, Kenya’s largest imports are related to energy and food, and these are sourced from countries being drawn into the conflict through horizontal escalation. Additionally, food items such as palm oil require navigation of contiguous maritime routes whose risks are elevated.

Domestic industry and consumers would suffer immediately from the lack of fuel and raw materials once existing stocks are exhausted.

Kenya’s Balance of Payments

The current account tracks changes in the flows of goods and services and the difference between imports and exports. The result is called the balance of trade.

The capital account tracks flows of capital and the difference between inflows and outflows of capital.

The financial account tracks ownership of assets and liabilities.

Kenya makes both exports and imports to and from the Persian Gulf. A disruption of Kenyan exports and imports will affect both sides of the balance of trade.

In the year 2024, Kenya made exports of US$8.81 billion to the world. Of this, US$2.59 billion was exported to Asia.

In that year, Uganda, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates accounted for 9.77%, 9.47%, and 8.56% of Kenyan exports respectively. These were Kenya’s most important export destinations.

If the war resulted in the total loss of the Persian Gulf as a destination market, Kenya would stand to lose US$1.073 billion, or 41.44% of its exports to Asia.

This would account for losses from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Bahrain.

On the imports side, Kenya would lose supplies worth US$3.57 billion.

Kenya’s trade balance would improve from a deficit of US$-13.69 billion to a smaller deficit of US$-11.191 billion, representing a 15.4% decrease.

86.1% of Kenya’s US$2.52 billion in exports to the UAE were made in refined petroleum.

This is because when oil marketing companies like TotalEnergies, Vivo Energy and others that have fuel concessions supply fuel to international airlines at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA), the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) officially records the value of that fuel as a re-export.

In this case, Kenya was making significant refuels to aircraft owned by firms headquartered in the United Arab Emirates, including Emirates, Etihad, Flydubai, and Air Arabia.

In response to UAE demand, in 2024 Kenyan fuel re-exports surged, making the UAE the most important export destination.

In the previous year, 51.8% of Kenya’s US$733 million exports to the UAE were made in gold.

By 2024, gold was no longer a major feature of Kenyan exports to the UAE. In that year, gold exports fell to US$841,000.

Kenyan exporters of tea, tropical fruits, and cut flowers accounted for 9.31%, 6.33%, and 4.67% of Kenya’s US$754 million exports to the UAE.

Alongside exporters of sheep and goats, these traders will find their incomes disrupted.

In 2024, 86.1% of Kenyan imports from the UAE were made in refined petroleum.

Disruptions to transportation of refined petroleum from the UAE will place Kenyan consumers in a precarious situation.

By Anderson Ojwang’

Former Cabinet Minister Raphael Tuju was overwhelmed with support and goodwill from Kenyans and the international community over the attempted takeover of his premises by an auctioneer over a long-running commercial debt court battle.

“I am overwhelmed by the messages of support and goodwill from friends, relatives, many Kenyans, not to mention members of the international community. I am indeed humbled and grateful for your prayers and words of encouragement,” he said.

Similarly, the High Court also granted Tuju the authority to appeal the Monday ruling by Judge Josephine Mongare that the matter was already settled, opening the door for recovery of the prime assets tied to a long-running debt.

After the ruling by Justice Mongare on Monday, she denied him the constitutional right of appeal and stated on record that it would be subject to her discretion.

“I have a right to appeal but the judge didn’t give me that opportunity. The 2010 Constitution gives me the right to appeal. You know there are corruption cases on this matter. People were arrested at my place because they were insisting that I must give them money to allegedly allow any appeal and any stay of execution and any status quo. I have already made an application,” he said.

Tuju said the goodwill messages and support from Kenyans and the international community were a sign of love and respect from the public.

He said on Monday four people, including a former judge of the High Court, came to his premises to collect a bribe and were arrested by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC).

Former High Court Judge Joseph Mutava and three other suspects were released on Sh200,000 cash bail each pending investigations into bribery claims.

The four, who also included a lawyer, spent Monday night in cells following their arrest by Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) officials.

Officials said they will forward the outcome of the investigation to the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (ODPP) for review and possible charges.

“These individuals had been in touch with me for several weeks. There are details of my encounter that I may not dwell on before the investigations are completed,” he said.

He said currently he was politically exposed and has to fight to protect his property.

“Given the fact that I am a politically exposed person, I cannot be so naive as to think that this conflict with the bank would engage my political enemies who are many all over the country,” he said.

Tuju has declared that only over his dead body will he lose his property after an auctioneer went to claim the facility.

He said the agents of a gentleman by the name of Chebet brought a fellow called Mr. Kiprop to take over the property.

“They had no court order and court papers. They just think they can come and intimidate me so that they can come and take over my property.

It is very simple what they have to do. They have to shoot me to get a big burial for me in Rarieda Constituency. I am sure my constituents will come to mourn. After I have been put into the grave, then they can come and take the property through such kind of impunity.

I am not going to take this kind of intimidation. It is very simple. They kill me first. I am not taking that kind of intimidation,” he said.

Tuju said the move was aimed at intimidating and blackmailing him into submission after some suspects were arrested at his premises for allegedly soliciting Sh10.4 million bribe over a case in court.

He wondered why the agent had to invade his premises with goons instead of using the proper legal channel.

“On Wednesday evening the firm of Lavington Security led by Mr. Kiprop, under the instructions of Mr. Jackson Chebet and their lawyer Mr. Kiprono, accompanied by over a hundred goons, stormed our Dari Business Park, which now hosts Tamarind Restaurant, in an attempt to throw me out.

If they had valid eviction orders, they needed not come with goons. Fortunately, after the commotion they created, my people informed the Karen Police Station, who came to restore order,” he said.

Tuju said the power of prayer and God’s intervention have seen him through turbulent moments but expressed optimism of victory.

“God continues to see me and my family through this difficult journey,” he said.

By Phillip Orwa

The High Court has suspended the enforcement of automated traffic penalties issued by the National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) following a petition filed by lawyer Shadrack Wambui.

Justice Bahati Mwamuye in a ruling said “THIS MATTER coming up on 12/03/2026 in Chambers for directions on the Petitioner/Applicant’s Notice of Motion Application dated 03/03/2026 [10/03/2026] filed on 10/03/2026 before the Honourable Mr. Justice Bahati Mwamuye MBS, and upon a preliminary consideration of the same together with the Petition dated 10/03/2026 IT IS HEREBY ORDERED AND DIRECTED THAT: 1. Pursuant to Rule 7(2) of the Constitution of Kenya (Protection of Rights and Fundamental Freedoms) Practice and Procedure Rules 2013, the Court on its own motion KCB Bank Kenya as the Interested Party in these proceedings with immediate effect. 2. Pending the inter partes hearing and determination of the Petitioner/Applicant’s Notice of Motion Application dated 03/03/2026 [ 10/03/2026], a conservatory order be and is hereby issued restraining the Respondents and the Interested Party, both jointly and severally, and whether by themselves, their officers, agents, related entities, or any person acting under their authority or together with them in a multi-agency framework, from issuing, generating, demanding or enforcing instant or automated traffic penalties produced through algorithmic or other automated decision-making systems and/or implementing or further implementing the impugned Instant Fines Traffic Management System.

3. The Petitioner shall serve the Respondents and the Interested Party with the Application, Petition, and this Court Order in both hardcopy and softcopy immediately and file an Affidavit of Service in that regard by close of business 13/03/2026.”

The court issued the temporary orders pending the hearing and determination of the case, effectively halting the implementation of the automated traffic penalty system for now. The matter has been scheduled for mention on April 9, when further directions are expected.

The automated system had been introduced to enhance traffic law enforcement through digital monitoring and automatic penalties for violations.

Advisory
Motorists are reminded that despite the suspension of automated penalties, all traffic laws remain in force. Drivers should continue to observe speed limits, road signs, and safe driving practices to ensure safety on the roads.

Recently, President William Ruto asked The Cabinet Secretary in charge of Transport Davis Chiechir to ensure instant fines system is implemented, the ministry through the National Transport and Safety Authority has (NTSA) has started implementing the policy.

President Ruto last Thursday in a meeting with Cabinet at Statehouse asked Chirchir why the government had invested heavily in buying the technique that was not being used.

“Bwana Chirchir and the Ministry of Transport and other State agents charged with implementing this system, why can’t we start using the instant fines system? We invested heavily on this system, and it’s high time we started using it,” said President Ruto last week.

On Monday Motorists, woke up to a rude Shock as through its Social handles, the NTSA made a public announcement that they will now receive traffic violation alerts instantly on their SMS after after they (NTSA) activated a new automated fines management system designed to improve road discipline and transparency.

The authority announced that the Instant Fines Traffic Management System is now live and will automatically issue traffic violation notifications via SMS to motorists where applicable.

“The system is fully automated and does not require human intervention, a move expected to enhance fairness in traffic enforcement.

The Instant Fines Traffic Management System is now live. The system will automatically issue traffic violation notifications via SMS to motorists where applicable,” NTSA said in the communique

The communication added, “the digital system is intended to promote transparency, efficiency and accountability in road safety enforcement.

Motorists who receive violation notices will be required to settle the fines within seven days.

Payments will be processed through the branch network of KCB Group.”

NTSA warned that failure to pay within the stipulated period will attract additional costs.

“Failure to settle the fine due within the seven-day period will result in the amount due earning interest,” the authority said.

The agency further cautioned that vehicles or drivers with pending penalties will not be able to access services on NTSA platforms until the fines are cleared.

“In addition, the vehicle or the driver with pending fine will not be able to transact on NTSA service platforms until the fine is settled,” the statement added.

The move forms part of the government’s broader push to digitize public services and improve road safety.

Many Kenyans welcomed the move, indicating that it was a welcome move and would restore order if adhered to the letter

By Arnold Maliba

The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) has officially beaten a hasty retreat on the controversial VAT “Special Table,” effectively ending its use as a broad enforcement and coercive compliance tool. Going forward, the Special Table will only be used to list taxpayers directly involved in VAT fraud schemes and the so-called missing trader arrangements.

The decision follows growing scrutiny and resistance, particularly from the Tax Appeals Tribunal, whose rulings had increasingly relieved taxpayers from being placed on the table. What had been presented as a compliance mechanism gradually became, in the eyes of many businesses, a punitive, manipulative, and coercive administrative weapon.

In an internal memo dated 10 March 2026, KRA itself admitted that the tool had been widely abused by its own officers. The authority acknowledged that the Special Table had evolved from a deterrent against tax fraud into the primary enforcement mechanism for compliance across multiple issues, often at the expense of legitimate businesses.

Yet the paradox remains, VAT collections rose significantly during the height of the Special Table regime. That success, however, came at the cost of fairness concerns and mounting legal challenges.

Through its rulings, the Tax Appeals Tribunal began building a strong and arguable jurisprudence questioning the legality and proportionality of the measure. Faced with the likelihood that the matter could escalate to the High Court of Kenya, where the authority risked losing outright, KRA appears to have chosen administrative retreat.

This does not mean enforcement tools will disappear. KRA will likely design new administrative mechanisms to ensure compliance and safeguard revenue. However, taxpayers will continue to place their hopes in the Tax Appeals Tribunal as an independent arbiter capable of balancing revenue collection with fairness and due process.

At the same time, there is a growing call for institutional reform in dispute resolution. The Martha Koome, as Chief Justice and head of the Judiciary of Kenya, should urgently establish a formal framework for court-annexed mediation in tax disputes to complement and supervise the existing Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) processes run by KRA, there is a huge Gap.

Currently, many taxpayers view the internal ADR system with suspicion, arguing that it has evolved into an opaque settlement channel where taxpayers are pressured into agreements that are reached after immense soliciting only for assessments to be reinstated later. Clear rules, judicial oversight, and transparency would restore confidence.

The retreat on the Special Table is therefore not merely an administrative adjustment, it is a reminder that tax enforcement must operate within the bounds of law, fairness, and accountability.

By Anderson Ojwang

Former Cabinet Minister Raphael Tuju has declared that only over his dead body will he lose his property after an auctioneer went to claim the facility.

He said the agents of a gentleman by the name of Chebet brought a fellow called Mr. Kiprop to take over the property.

“They had no court order and court papers. They just think they can come and intimidate me so that they can take over my property.

It is very simple what they have to do. They have to shoot me to get a big burial for me in Rarieda Constituency. I am sure my constituents will come to mourn. After I have been put into the grave, then they can come and take the property through such kind of impunity.

I am not going to take this kind of intimidation. It is very simple. They kill me first. I am not taking that kind of intimidation,” he said.

Tuju said the move was aimed at intimidating and blackmailing him into submission after some suspects were arrested at his premises for allegedly soliciting a Sh10.4 million bribe over a case in court.

Tuju said a judge made a ruling against him on Monday and that, according to the Constitution, he was already filing an appeal in court.

“I have a right to appeal. The 2010 Constitution gives me the right to appeal. You know there are corruption cases on this matter. People were arrested at my place because they were insisting that I must give them money to allegedly allow any appeal, any stay of execution and any status quo. I have already made an application,” he said.

On Monday, High Court Judge Josephine Mongare ruled that the matter was already settled, opening the door for recovery of the prime assets tied to a long-running debt.

Also on Monday, former High Court Judge Joseph Mutava and three other suspects were released on Sh200,000 cash bail each pending investigation into bribery claims.

The four, who also included a lawyer, spent Monday night in cells following their arrest by officials from the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC).

Officials said they will forward the outcome of the investigation to the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (ODPP) for review and possible charges.

Mutava looked tired when he walked out of the EACC cells on Tuesday morning.

They were each released on a bail of Sh200,000, officials said.

EACC on Monday arrested the former judge and advocate Kimani Wachira over an alleged bribery scheme linked to a commercial dispute currently before the High Court of Kenya.

Officials at the anti-graft agency confirmed that Mutava, Wachira and two other suspects were arrested following investigations into claims that they demanded a bribe of USD 80,000 (approximately Sh10.4 million).

According to the EACC, the money was allegedly solicited to influence the outcome of a commercial case involving a former Cabinet minister, which is currently pending before the High Court.

The four suspects were held at the EACC Integrity Centre Police Station in Nairobi as investigators finalized processing ahead of their expected arraignment on Tuesday.

The commission said the arrests follow increasing public and media inquiries regarding the matter, adding that investigations are ongoing.

EACC reiterated its commitment to combating corruption and safeguarding the integrity of the judiciary, warning that individuals found culpable will face the full force of the law.

Mutava was removed from office in 2016 following findings of gross misconduct and corruption, which were later upheld by the Supreme Court of Kenya.

By Hope Barbra

The Raila Amolo Odinga memorial conference will be held in August this year in Nairobi at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC).

Kisumu Governor Prof. Peter Anyang Nyong’o made the announcement after meeting with the Vice Chancellor of Daystar University, Prof. Laban Ayiro, the convenor of the conference, in Nairobi.

“It is within this intellectual and historical context that Daystar University has convened the RAO2026 Memorial Conference, under the theme ‘Future-Proofing Democracy: Resilience, Adaptation and Opportunity,’” he said.

Nyong’o said the conference, scheduled for August 2026 at the iconic Kenyatta International Convention Centre in Nairobi, will bring together scholars, political leaders, researchers, policymakers, and citizens to interrogate the evolving democratic landscape in Kenya and beyond.

“Today I had the privilege of receiving a delegation from Daystar University led by its Vice Chancellor, Prof. Laban Ayiro, for consultations on an important forthcoming scholarly undertaking, the RAO2026 Memorial Conference on Communication and Politics,” he said.

Also present at the meeting were Levy Obonyo, Chair of the Conference Council, alongside County Executive Committee Members John Awiti (Education) and George Okong’o (Finance), as well as officials from both the County Government and Daystar University.

Nyong’o said few figures in the country’s national life have shaped the democratic imagination of Kenya as profoundly as the late Raila Amollo Odinga.

“His political journey, marked by resilience, principled struggle and an unwavering commitment to social justice, left an indelible imprint not only on Kenya but on the wider African democratic project,” he said.

He said Raila’s influence on political culture, civic consciousness, and the evolving norms of governance cannot be gainsaid.

“Indeed, the study of Raila Odinga’s public life offers a rich repository of lessons for scholars and practitioners alike, lessons in leadership, moral courage, intergenerational influence, strategic communication, and the delicate art of navigating complex political transitions,” he said.

The Governor said Raila’s career stands as a masterclass in decision-making under pressure, the capacity to adapt to shifting historical moments, and the disciplined dynamism required to remain faithful to enduring democratic principles.

“The gathering will provide an important platform for reflection and dialogue on the enduring legacy of Raila Amollo Odinga and on the continuing task before us: to deepen democracy, strengthen accountable governance, and nurture institutions capable of sustaining the aspirations of our people.

The pursuit of democratic renewal is not a singular event but a continuous intellectual and civic enterprise,” he said.

Prof. Ayiro said it was an honor to consult with Prof. Nyong’o on the forthcoming RAO2026 Memorial Conference on Communication and Politics, which Daystar University will host in August 2026 at KICC, Nairobi.

“The conference, under the theme ‘Future-Proofing Democracy: Resilience, Adaptation and Opportunity,’ will provide a vital platform for scholars, leaders, policymakers, and citizens to reflect on the enduring legacy of the Right Honourable Raila Amollo Odinga and to engage the continuing task of strengthening democracy, accountable governance, and resilient institutions in Kenya and beyond,” he said.