By Hon Sam Weya
The growing debate surrounding the future leadership of ODM should not be reduced to personalities or emotional loyalty. It is fundamentally about the survival, direction, and national relevance of one of Kenya’s most significant political parties.
There comes a time in every political movement when difficult truths must be spoken openly. That time has now arrived for ODM.
It is becoming increasingly clear that Dr Oburu Oginga cannot effectively steer ODM as a modern national political party operating in today’s highly competitive political environment. Leadership of a movement built by Raila Odinga requires energy, strategic coordination, national outreach, and constant engagement across every corner of the country. This is not a ceremonial role. It is a demanding 24-hour assignment requiring vision, organisation, negotiation, mobilisation, and relentless political warfare.
Instead, what we are witnessing is a narrow regional consolidation strategy centred almost entirely around Nyanza politics, without a compelling national agenda capable of reigniting ODM’s support bases in Western Kenya, Coast, Nairobi, North Eastern, Lower Eastern, and other regions where Raila painstakingly built political goodwill over decades.
ODM was never intended to become a regional preservation vehicle. It was built as a national reform movement.
The uncomfortable reality is that age is no longer on Oburu’s side. Politics today is fast, digital, aggressive, and unforgiving. The next ODM leader must possess the stamina to operate continuously – holding strategy meetings at midnight, engaging youth movements online, coordinating county structures daily, countering government narratives instantly, and rebuilding the party machinery nationally.
That is not happening.
In fact, Oburu’s declaration that he will defend the Siaya Senate seat speaks volumes. It sends a clear message that even he may not fully believe in ODM’s future prospects under the current arrangement, nor is he entirely convinced that the broader political realignments with UDA guarantee long-term security for the party.
Those of us who have been insiders within ODM politics for years are not surprised. Historically, whenever his political survival appeared uncertain, Oburu has often sought protective political arrangements. It has long been whispered within ODM circles that during tense nomination periods he would privately express doubts about Raila’s chances of winning, while simultaneously lobbying for control over candidate selection in Siaya to secure his own political interests.
This pattern reflects a deeper concern: the institutionalisation of self-preservation politics within ODM.
Many party members still remember how nomination politics in Siaya frequently revolved around personal loyalty networks rather than competitive democracy. The controversial backing of Cornel Rasanga over Engineer Gumbo, and how the late Jakoyo Midiwo was supporting, remains one of the most emotionally charged episodes within the Odinga political family itself. Jakoyo’s fallout with sections of the ODM establishment deeply wounded party loyalists who believed merit and independent political thought were being punished.
Questions have also persisted regarding why a senior political figure such as Oburu would continue accepting nominated parliamentary positions – including slots constitutionally designed to uplift youth and marginalised voices – rather than mentoring and creating space for a new generation of leaders.
ODM now faces a defining moment.
As Anyang’ Nyong’o recently observed, ODM is a national party and must continue behaving, organising, and presenting itself as one. That statement was not accidental. It was a warning.
The internal tensions between the so-called “Linda Mwananchi” and “Linda Ground” factions risk tearing the party apart if sober leadership does not prevail quickly. Unless these groups close ranks and agree on a coherent national strategy, ODM risks gradual decline into regional irrelevance at a time when Kenya’s political landscape is rapidly reorganising itself ahead of the next electoral cycle.
What ODM desperately needs now is not entitlement politics or inherited influence. The party requires generational renewal, ideological clarity, organisational discipline, and a leadership team capable of reconnecting with young voters, professionals, grassroots mobilisers, and forgotten reformists across Kenya.
The future of ODM cannot survive on nostalgia alone.
Raila built a movement rooted in sacrifice, detention, resistance, and national inclusion. Preserving that legacy requires more than family lineage – it requires bold leadership, fresh thinking, and the courage to embrace renewal before it is too late.
The writer is a former Alego MP and Siaya Senatorial Aspirant
