By Anderson Ojwang
In a run up to the 2013 general elections, a political mantra tyranny of numbers was coined to catapult Jubilee alliance presidential candidate Uhuru Kenya to victory against the Cord candidate then Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi in an article titled Tyranny of numbers, was a strategic use of demographic data, specifically ethnic and regional, predicted and potentially influenced election outcome.
It became prominent in the 2013 presidential election, with analysts suggesting that certain ethnic groups, when combined, created a numerical advantage leading to a predictable victory.
But now the emerging new voter bloc, the Genz may shape the voting pattern and the region or tribes that were projected to have huge vote blocks, may find themselves having the least votes in the new voter registration.
The 2027 presidential candidates have all their eyes set on the Genz votes to drive them to Statehouse. The focus is on the new youth vote bloc to solve and change the presidential equation in the 2027 elections.
The Genz have become an integral part of the new political dispensation in the country and currently determinse the country’s socio-economic and political dispensation to an extent.
They have become the alternative order to the already existing old political order that was controlled by the government and the opposition.
President William Ruto, Senator Okiya Omtatta, former Chief Justice David Maraga, Former Interna Security Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiangi, Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and impeached deputy president Rigathi Gachagua all have their eyes on the targeted 5.7 million new youth voters.
According to the Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC), it projects to register an additional 5.7 million new voters with a focus on the youth and plan to gazette 55,393 polling stations, an increase from the 46,229 used in the 2022 elections.
The IEBC intends to procure new KIEMS (Kenya Integrated Elections Management System) kits worth sh 7 billion replacing the older ones used since 2017.
And the commission is seeking sh 61.7 billion to be funded over three financial years 2025/26/2026/27 and 2027/2028.
Presidential Ruto’s administration recently directed the issuance of national identity cards to students in secondary schools who have attained the age of 18 in readiness to the registered as voters and be eligible to vote.
Interesting, the data shows an interesting shift with Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley and Lower Eastern regions slicing the majority of students population acquiring new identity cards as compared the vote rich Mt Kenya.
A reality check to the vote rich Mt Kenya is in the offing as they witness a downward spiral in the student’s population in the secondary schools while Northeastern and Coast have maintained the low percentage.
A circular from Principal Secretary, ministry of education, state department for basic education, Amb. Prof Julius K. Bitok, wrote and captioned “facilitation of school-based ID registration exercise second term, 2023.
The State department for immigration and citizen services, through the national registration bureau (NRB), intends to undertake a mobile national ID registration drive targeting students in secondary schools during the current (second) school term (May-August 2025).
This initiative is designed to ensure that Kenyan students who have attained the age of 18 are registered for national identity cards while still in school, enabling them to access tertiary education placement, job opportunities and financial aid such as HELB loans without delay upon completion of secondary education,” it read in parts.
In 2023, Kenya had approximately 13.2 million students enrolled in pre-primary, primary , and secondary schools. Specifically, there were 2.9 million in pre-primary, 10.2 million in primary and 4.1 million in secondary schools.
In 2023 Bungoma and Kakamega had the highest number of students enrolled at 203,195 and 199,124 respectively.
Nakuru had 195,393, Kiambu 174,100, Migori147,033, Machakos 143,550, Homa bay 143,550, Muranga, 135,093, Meru 134,402, Siaya 130,784, Makueni 130,305 and Nairobi 125,566.
Others Kisumu 123,499, Kisii 123,449, Kitui 120,489, Kericho 114,816 , Nandi 108,830 , Trans Nzoia 108,415, Bomet 107,935 , Kilifi 98,696 , Busia 88,549, Uasin Gishu 84,969 , Nyamira 84,749, Vihiga 83,256, Nyeri 80,536, Narok 79,809 , Nyandarua 66,872 , Baringo 65,665, Kirinyaga 63,145, Embu 62,930 , Elgeyo Marakwet 59,219, Kajiado 59,102 , Tharaka Nthi 58,533, Kwale 55,779, West Pokot 50,020, Laikipia 45,397, Mombasa 43,902, Taita Taveta 33,032, Wajir 28,734, Mandera 27,734 , Turkana 27,430, Garissa 23,970, Marsabit 13,531, Samburu 12,823, tana river12,009 , Isiolo 10,444 and Lamu 1,033.
From the above data Nyanza accounts for 753,013, Western 574,124, Rift Valley 970,740 while Central Kenya 574,303 while Upper Eastern 255,865 giving Mt. Kenya region a total of 830,168 against Western Kenya’s 2,297,877.
In 2024, a total of 962,512 candidates sat for Kenya Certificate of Secondary Examinations.
This represented a 7.19 percent increase compared to the 899,453 candidates who sat in 2023.
Maraga recently claimed that he was the Genz presidential candidate saying “I am the Genz presidential candidate. I have children and many people have children. We must mentor young people as they take over from us.”
Maraga urged young people to embrace their civic duty and become active champions of good governance saying their voices and choices hold the power to shape the country’s future, calling on them to demand accountability and leadership that truly serves the people.
“I challenge each one of you to be champions of justice and accountability. Stand fearless against a stubborn system that lures young minds into service for political cartels,” he said.
Matiang’i called on Kenya’s Gen Z to translate their energy and activism into concrete political engagement by registering to vote ahead of the next general election, emphasizing that true impact lies not just in protest, but in participation.
Gachagua urged Gen Z to register as voters, expresses confidence that 2027 election won’t be rigged despite questioning credibility of the appointed IEBC commissioners.
While Kalonzo has praised Kenya’s Gen Z youth, recognizing them as the year’s true heroes and heroines for sparking a revolution in the country.
Kalonzo celebrated the youth for leading the charge towards greater accountability in governance, which he said has inspired all Kenyans to hold their leaders responsible.
And President Ruto during the recent prayer breakfast apologized to the Gen Z as he took a reconciliatory approach.
“To our children, if there has been any misstep, we apologize,” he said.
If the Kenya voting pattern remains on the tribal line and regional block, then the 2027 presidential election will be an interesting one.
