By Anderson Ojwang

Of the two by-elections in Nyanza—Ugunja and Kasipul constituencies—Kasipul stands out as the most significant and the one likely to determine a new political dispensation in the region and the country.

Kasipul, in Homa Bay County, the bedroom of ODM and the late Raila Odinga, is seen as the yardstick to measure the emerging and delicate political course of the region.

Currently, President William Ruto has been making political inroads in Homa Bay and the wider Nyanza region with a view to inherit Raila’s vote bloc ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Kasipul has the highest number of UDA members, led by vocal political activist Odoyo Owidi, and hosts one of the party’s modern offices in the country.

For ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, this is the battle of her life and a litmus test of her ability to hold the party together during a stormy moment.

Similarly, the by-election marks the beginning of her journey to defend the gubernatorial seat in a post-Raila political matrix, where she will face off with her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga.

Magwanga is leading a strong combined force of professionals and UDA brigades, led by former Nairobi Governor Dr. Evans Kidero and former Migori Governor Okoth Obado, alongside a coterie of disenfranchised political leaders from the region.

Currently, ODM leadership is reading from different scripts—one faction supporting the broad-based government and the other opposing the arrangement.

That is why, when Wanga wrapped up the campaign for the ODM candidate Boyd Were, she said all eyes were on Kasipul constituency, as it would determine whether ODM was dead or still dominant.

Speaking in Kasipul, Wanga said the by-election was a litmus test for the party, with some leaders claiming ODM died with Raila Odinga.

“Everyone is watching Kasipul. Some people have said ODM died with Raila and is buried in Kango ka Jaramogi in Bondo. This is why I implore you to come out and vote for Boyd and the ODM party,” she said.

Over the weekend, former Migori Governor Okoth Obado said ODM died with Raila, was buried in Kango ka Jaramogi, and urged residents not to follow a ‘dead horse’, but to look for other political formations.

Obado said ODM had been split into two and died with Raila.

“Mokuongo ODM cha usekethe kendo osebarore. Koro iseyieche kocha gi koni. Oseyiech ka nanga ka pod itari ni iluwo bange wachni. En koth ma osechue ma orumo wechandori. ODM nnyocha en Raila. Raila ne en ODM. Koro Raila nnyocha osenindo.”
(ODM has been split right in the middle. If you are gullible enough to follow it, that is your problem. It is rain that has ended. ODM was Raila and Raila was ODM. It died with Raila and is buried in Kango ka Jaramogi.)

For Wanga, the storm is thick, heavy, and pregnant with guns blazing aimed at her, now that her political godfather is gone.

She has a battle of a lifetime to salvage her image and political career to survive post-Raila realignment.

Wanga is already facing a stiff challenge from the ODM wing opposed to the broad-based government, a faction that seems to enjoy the support of Siaya Senator James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, and Secretary General Edwin Sifuna.

She enjoys the support of party leader Dr. Oburu Odinga, Sam Atandi, Junet Mohammed, and Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi, among others.

Wanga has enjoyed a smooth political curve since her entry into politics, rising from women representative to governor.

The race for Kasipul is a two-horse race, pitting Independent Candidate Philip Aroko against Boyd Were, each enjoying the backing of the two political blocs.

Political analysts argue that the seat is crucial for future political realignments.

Analyst George Akongo argues that the by-election will determine the voting pattern—whether the region remains ascribed to the party or is changing trends following Raila’s demise.

“The election will determine whether the electorate remains loyal to Raila and the party, or if a wind of change is sweeping and the community is opening up to other political formations ahead of the 2027 general elections.

It opens the region to a wider political space and allows other parties to invest and compete with ODM on a level playing ground,” he said.

Akongo said Kasipul and Homa Bay were President Ruto’s entry point into Nyanza, and with the creation of the broad-based government, the region may be opening up to other parties.

He says the contest also provides an opportunity to know whether Wanga or Magwanga is in charge of local politics in Kasipul and, by extension, Homa Bay County.

“Who between Wanga and Magwanga has the people’s support and is the possible winner in the next general elections?” he asks.

The by-election will be used as a yardstick to determine whether the politics of inheritance still have space in the emerging dispensation.

By Anderson Ojwang

Former Baringo Senator Gideon Moi may have squandered a golden opportunity to rebrand and reposition KANU—the country’s independence party—within Kenya’s political matrix in Thursday’s by-elections.

Gideon’s anticipated candidature for the Baringo senatorial by-election was offering the son of Kenya’s second president, the late Daniel arap Moi, a pathway back to an elective seat and a chance to breathe new life into the party.
The seat was Gideon’s to lose, which explains why President William Ruto prevailed upon him to drop his bid and instead join the broad-based government project.

This decision followed a private meeting with President Ruto at State House, after which Gideon failed to present his nomination papers to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

A section of Baringo residents even threatened to march to the late President Moi’s grave in protest, expressing disappointment and a sense of betrayal.

In the 2022 general election, the late William Cheptumo won the senatorial race with 147,177 votes against Gideon’s 71,480 and was again poised to defeat UDA’s Kiprono Chemitei in the by-election.

IEBC cleared six candidates for the Baringo senatorial by-election scheduled for November 27:

• Shadrack Kiplawat (Alliance for Change Party)
• Samuel Letasio (Kenya Moja Movement)
• Steve David Kipruto (Republican Liberty Party)
• Benjamin Chebon (The New Democrats)
• Kiprono Chemitei (UDA)
• Daniel Kirui (Umoja na Maendeleo Party)

Gideon would have entered the race with a solid base of 71,480 votes and a shifting political terrain that was increasingly favouring him. But he blew the chance.

President Ruto told residents that he personally prevailed on Gideon to withdraw and join him in a national unification effort.

“To the family of our father, Daniel Moi, and the people of Baringo, let me thank God for allowing us to gather here at Kabarak, the home of our father, the second president of Kenya.

I am happy. When I spoke with my brother Gideon, we discussed past, present, and future issues. After agreeing on everything, the question of how and where to communicate it arose. I told him Kabarak was the best venue. This is our home. Nobody welcomes us here. We know this place better,” Ruto said.

He added that in Moi’s final years in power, he was the closest person to him.

President Ruto said he approached Gideon and invited him to join the broad-based government.

“I told Gideon, kindly join me so we can pull the country together. I have spoken with Raila Odinga. I have sat with my predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta. I told all of them that Kenya must move to the next level. I looked for Gideon and told him the same. If there is any mistake, blame me,” he said.

Gideon later issued a statement saying:
“We’ve elected to pursue the path of unity and shared purpose at this crucial point in our nation. I extend my heartfelt gratitude to the people of Baringo for their support and for granting us a chance to move beyond our differences and build a cohesive and prosperous nation.”

And with that, Gideon missed the opportunity to reclaim the Baringo senate seat and revive KANU’s political relevance.

Broken Promises in Ugunja and Kasipul

Ahead of the by-elections, Gideon was actively scouting for candidates to fly the KANU flag, successfully netting two aspirants in Ugunja and Kasipul.

In Ugunja, KANU recruited former university student leader Chris Budo, a respected community mobilizer.
KANU Secretary-General George Wainaina and Chairman Gideon Moi reportedly promised to fund Budo’s campaign.

But the party later failed to honour the agreement.

“I am disappointed that my party failed to meet its part of the bargain. They asked for my budget, and that was the last time I heard from them. They undermined my campaign. I am very disappointed in my party leadership,” Budo said.

Last Saturday, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka was in Ugunja campaigning for his party’s candidate, Eng. Johannes Odhiambo Orodi.
KANU officials were nowhere to be seen—despite having a candidate they personally headhunted.

KANU has again lost a chance to re-establish itself in Nyanza, a region now politically fluid following the demise of ODM leader Raila Odinga.

By Anderson Ojwang

Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma, in his speech on Sunday during a campaign in Kasipul, may have lifted the lid on the delicate and emerging post–Raila Odinga political landscape.

Kaluma, in his lamentation to Kericho Senator Aaron Cheruiyot over the decision by the UDA brigade from Nyanza to support independent candidate Philip Aroko against ODM and broad-based government candidate Boyd Were, revealed the troubling political situation that Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga may be facing in the post-Raila political matrix and realignment.

Wanga could be facing political isolation, and it appears she may have become a marked person — a political target in the emerging post-Raila era.

If anything, Wanga looks increasingly like a lone ranger in the new political equation in Homa Bay County following her fallout with Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga.

The emergence of a combined political force against her, the conspicuous absence of most Homa Bay MPs from her campaigns, and the failure to hold joint rallies with Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi may be indicators of what the future holds for Raila’s once-trusted lieutenant.

Wanga enjoyed Raila’s ear and wielded significant influence in the former Prime Minister’s political structure. Through that power, she rose to the governorship and the ODM national chairpersonship.

Kaluma said:
“Yesterday Governor Obado came all the way from Migori and was campaigning with Aroko in Kasipul. They are intimidating our people. The other day Odoyo Owidi was there campaigning for Aroko, yet we are in a broad-based government under President William Ruto.

Just as we speak now, former Nairobi Governor Dr Evans Kidero has just left Aroko’s home. They are confusing our people.
The presence of these people is causing confusion among the electorate.

The big problem is that we cannot be in the broad-based government together while the UDA team is campaigning for our opponent. So we need you, Senator, to tell the President to rein in these people.

We feel very bad, and President Ruto will also feel very bad. Rein in these people,” he said.

Currently, Wanga and Kaluma have pitched camp in Kasipul campaigning for ODM’s Boyd Were, while several MPs from the county — Martin Owino (Ndhiwa), Adipo Okuome (Karachuonyo), Millie Mabona Odhiambo, Caroli Omondi (Suba South and North), and Woman Representative Dr Joyce Osogo — have been largely absent, save for yesterday when Millie, Gogo, and Osogo joined.

Interestingly, Wanga had been grooming candidates to replace some of these sitting MPs in the 2027 general election, a move that has created friction and tension.

With the demise of Raila, new political realignments are underway, casting doubt on Wanga’s influence in Homa Bay.

Magwanga recently said he would not be intimidated or blackmailed into supporting Boyd Were after what he termed a bungled ODM nomination.

“They returned my funeral contribution for the late Ongondo Were and still expect me to support their candidate. I cannot be intimidated or blackmailed. I have been insulted far too long, and this election will bring back some respect,” he said.

Kidero defied Raila in the 2022 general election to run against Wanga for the Homa Bay governorship, while Magwanga and other aspirants were compelled to support her.

With Raila gone, the battleground is now level, and Wanga finds herself in the eye of the storm, with all guns trained on her.

During a recent empowerment event in Kasipul, Deputy President Kindiki Kithure and Principal Secretary for Internal Security Dr Raymond Omollo openly endorsed Boyd Were and urged residents to vote for him.

Wanga wrote on her X handle:
“Kasipul, the time is now! This Thursday, the future of Kasipul is on the ballot. Today in North Kamagak, we presented to you a candidate who is ready to deliver — sharp, focused, visionary, and aligned with your aspirations as a constituency.

We were honored to have the presence of my Siaya counterpart James Orengo, Millie Odhiambo, Senator Moses Kajwang’, Gogo, and Osogo. As we conclude these campaigns and head to the polls, we urge everyone to ensure not only a peaceful election but also a high voter turnout to secure our victory.”

Odoyo Owidi said it was within their right to support a candidate of their choice and that they were unbothered by the remarks from Kaluma and Wanga.

“Neither Kaluma nor Gladys Wanga can dictate to us who we support. Raila could! In fact, they need the government more than the government needs them. Gladys Wanga must also know that playing the victim and invoking Raila’s name everywhere will not help her.
The only people we will allow to invoke Raila’s name are Dr Idah Odinga, Hon Winnie Odinga, Junior, and Rosemary,” he said.

Former Migori Governor Okoth Obado declared that ODM had split and died with Raila.

“Mokuongo ODM cha usekethe. Ng’ani oseyuaye kocha gi koni. Oseyiech ka nanga ka pod itari ni iluwo bange wachni.
En koth ma osechue wachandori. ODM nyoncha en Raila. Raila ne en ODM.”
(“ODM has been split right down the middle. It is rain that has ended. ODM was Raila, and Raila was ODM.”)

For Wanga, the storm is heavy, the guns are trained on her, and she must now battle on both the ODM and Homa Bay fronts, where her straight political path faces the ultimate acid test.

By Anderson Ojwang

With only 48 hours to the Mbeere North by-election, pressure is building and the epic duel between the two deputies has reached fever pitch. It is a bare-knuckle contest, and none is letting up as both apply every tactic possible to win the election.

Deputy President Prof. Kindiki Kithure is at his best, showcasing his political acumen as he battles it out with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in what is billed as a battle of titans.

For the first time, Mt Kenya is witnessing a political earthquake threatening to split the mountain right down the middle, with the two sworn rivals not ready to back down.

If anything, the by-election has reopened old wounds—now bleeding—and could result in premium tears and potentially tear the mountain apart ahead of the 2027 general elections.

At a rally today, Kindiki issued a stern warning to Gachagua, telling him to focus on campaigning for his candidate Newton Karish and avoid provoking him.

He said he had tolerated Gachagua for long out of respect and because he does not like engaging his kinsmen.

“I have been in politics longer than Rigathi Gachagua. I have kept quiet for a long time because I didn’t want to engage him and I don’t like engaging my kinsmen. But he has come too far, too close, and is now within shooting range,” he said.

Kindiki likened himself to the biblical David and Gachagua to Goliath, saying the latter would suffer a humiliating defeat in Thursday’s by-election.

“Mimi kama David kwa Biblia. Huyu Goliath unaona leo, nitaangusha… Saa zako zimeisha. Funga virago uende nyumbani. Iko new sheriff in town. Sisi ndiyo watu wa kusema.”

Kindiki insisted Gachagua was not his peer—politically, academically, or professionally—as he had held multiple senior positions while Gachagua was a junior civil servant.

“Na ukiendelea hivyo, mimi nitakuabisha. Rigathi Gachagua, nitakuabisha. Wachana na mimi. Omba kura ya Karish. Mimi si mtu wa kucheza naye… Siku zako zimeisha. Alhamisi tunakumalizia.”

Kindiki dismissed Gachagua’s claim that he was President William Ruto’s employee, saying he was the Deputy President by right.

“I am the Deputy President of Kenya by right. Huyu jamaa wa mitego akisema mimi ni mfanyakazi wa William Ruto—hanijui.”

He went on to outline his career:

“Siku alikuwa naibu wa relief, mimi nilikuwa professor. Siku hiyo alikuwa DO na akafutwa kazi, mimi nilikuwa wakili wa Uhuru Kenyatta na William Ruto kule ICC… Mimi nimekuwa senator miaka kumi, deputy speaker wa Senate, majority leader, Waziri wa Usalama. Yeye amekuwa nini? One-term MP, backbencher…”

He also revisited the UDA running mate selection process, accusing Gachagua of blackmail.

“Wakati chama iliketi kuchagua moja wetu, hukupata hata kura moja… Ukaleta fujo na maandamano—‘No Rigathi, no Ruto’… Baada ya miaka miwili, wewe mwenyewe ukajitoa kwa kiti kwa sababu hujui kukaa na mkubwa wako.”

By OPCS Press
Malava-Prime Cabinet a Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has put on Notice Trans Nzoia governor Goerge Natembeya to prepare for defeat in his re-election in 2027.

Mudavadi said were young men and women in UDA who would give Natembeya run for his money in the election.

Speaking during community engagement Navagara, Malava Constituency, Mudavadi said that Natembeya was acting too clever, and was overestimating himself.

“I want to tell Natembeya, don’t act too clever, we have been in politics longer, we are only quiet, but, don’t think we cannot do politics, we will take you home in 2027. We have young men and women ready to over from him,” said Mudavadi.

PCS said that the people of Tran Nzoia should relieve Natembeya of his duties so that he can pursue being an elder in every community.

Mudavadi said the fact that he was playing polite politics did not mean that they did not politics.

“I have seen victory, I have defeat, and we know how to navigate the world of politics, but we do polite, and peaceful politics,” said Mudavadi.

PCS also took on former Internal Affairs Minister Fred Matiang’i for pretending to question government when he own record was stinking.

“Where does Matiang’i get the moral authority to challenge the government when he has many questions to answer, Kenyans have not forgotten how hundreds of bodies were found in River Yala during his term,” said Mudavadi.

He said Matiang’i when in his office refused to give Malava Constituency the too divisions they had requested and its until under President William Ruto’s government that they got Malava, North, and South.

Mudavadi asked the people from the Western region to support the governments of President Ruto and position themselves to inherit Presidency when the head of state finishes his term.

“We must position ourselves well to take over from Ruto after finishes his two terms. You think others are waiting, we must guard ourselves by giving the government 100percent support.

The people of Mulembe Nation should not chances.” Mudavadi said.

“The people from other regions, are not sleeping, they are planning, we must be vigilant and work in unity,” said Mudavadi.

By Anderson Ojwang

Former ODM national chairman John Mbadi has claimed he had a troubling dream in which the late Raila Odinga expressed bitterness over Kasipul voters allegedly rejecting ODM candidate Boyd Were in favour of independent candidate Philip Aroko.

Speaking during a campaign rally in Kasipul on Friday, Mbadi, who is now the Cabinet Secretary for Treasury and Economic Planning, narrated the dream in Dholuo:

“Aleko didek. Kalek chanda. Kaom ni anindo to Raila ema aneno. Raila yuakna ni Mbadi ne achiegni donje e polo. To ka ahango ni adonj e polo to malaika riemba ni Raila in gi mirima ma ng’eny…”

(I dreamt three times and could not sleep. Whenever I tried to sleep, Raila would appear. I saw him crying, saying he was about to enter heaven but was stopped by angels for carrying deep bitterness. I asked him what was wrong, even though we gave him a befitting burial. He said the people of Kasipul had turned against him by rejecting Boyd Were and supporting an independent candidate.)

Mbadi told residents that the alleged betrayal could cost the constituency politically if ODM’s candidate is not elected.

His remarks came as Homa Bay Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga intensified door-to-door campaigns for Philip Aroko, insisting he will not succumb to intimidation or blackmail to support Boyd Were.

Magwanga accused ODM leaders of disrespect, saying he had faced hostility for not backing Were.

“These people returned my contribution for the late Were Ong’ondo’s funeral. They even warned me not to attend the burial. They have insulted me in front of my children. How then do they expect me to support their candidate?” he said.

Magwanga added that a day before the ODM rally in Kasipul—attended by party leader Dr. Oburu Odinga—he had already informed the Siaya Senator of his position, and the two had agreed.

“A day before the Kasipul rally, I was with Oburu in Rongo and explained why I would not attend. He understood. So when some people resort to intimidation and blackmail, they are playing with fire,” he warned.

During the ODM rally, Homa Bay County Assembly Majority Leader demanded that Magwanga campaign for Were or face political consequences.

“The deputy governor has frustrated the governor. We don’t understand why he cannot come out to support Were. We are putting him on notice,” he said.

Most Homa Bay MPs have kept off the ground amid claims that Governor Wanga is grooming candidates to challenge them in 2027. Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma has been consistently campaigning for Were, and Senator Moses Kajwang joined the trail on Saturday.

IEBC Fines Candidates KSh1 Million Each Over Violence

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) recently reprimanded the Homa Bay County Government for alleged interference in Kasipul political activities, including using public resources and involving civil servants in campaigns.

IEBC also found both Boyd Were (ODM) and Philip Aroko (Independent) culpable for violence experienced in Kasipul during campaigns, fining each KSh1 million to be paid within 48 hours.

“Both candidates are responsible for the violence witnessed in Kasipul. They violated several clauses of the Electoral Code of Conduct,” the committee said.

The committee further warned that repeated violations could lead to disqualification from the November 27 by-election.

It was also revealed that intelligence reports confirmed involvement of Homa Bay County Government officials and public resources in the campaigns, contrary to the Election Offences Act.

The Commission expressed alarm over deaths, injuries, and property damage arising from the campaign chaos.

Both candidates have been ordered to publicly sign the Political Decency Charter and commit to peaceful campaigns.