By Billy Mijungu
The recognition of Somaliland is no longer a sentimental African debate about borders and history. It is a hard economic and global trade question whose time has come. In fact, Somaliland’s recognition would not only stabilise regional commerce but also significantly contribute to the stabilisation of global trade routes.
Today, the cost of importing a single container is nearly three times what it was before the Yemeni Houthis disrupted shipping routes in the Red Sea. The cost of shipping a small vehicle is now almost double the price of buying the same car in the second-hand market. These are real pressures choking businesses, inflating prices and discouraging investment.
Business thrives on security, accountability and sustainability. Where these three are absent, capital flees. Where they exist, trade flourishes. Israel, despite being at the centre of geopolitical tension, has demonstrated how firm security architecture and predictable systems can stabilise trade flows even within a hostile regional environment. That same logic applies to the Horn of Africa.
Somaliland is strategically positioned and institutionally stable. The Berbera Port offers a viable, secure and efficient trade corridor not only for Somaliland but also for Ethiopia, a 120-million-strong economy desperate for reliable sea access. Unlocking this corridor would power East Africa’s manufacturing, logistics and export potential, creating jobs and lowering the cost of goods across the region.
Somalia, unfortunately, has been slow, indecisive and often inward-looking. Instead of building regional trade infrastructure, it has focused on narrow, short-term political deals on the global stage. The result has been missed opportunity after missed opportunity, while instability continues to repel investors.
Somaliland should be recognised and admitted into the East African Community immediately after Ethiopia. Doing so would redraw the regional business map, anchor trade security and offer East Africa an alternative logistics backbone at a time when global supply chains are under severe strain.
And Somalia must tread carefully. The uncomfortable truth is that continued dysfunction carries consequences. At the slightest provocation, Jubaland could well chart its own path, and further fragmentation would become inevitable. Nations that fail to organise themselves eventually get reorganised by reality.
Trade does not wait for politics. Capital does not negotiate with indecision.
Recognition of Somaliland is not a provocation. It is a solution.
