By Anderson Ojwang
Kenya’s opposition could be facing the Ford moment after the enactment of Section 2A of the Constitution that turned the country into a multi-party state.
The Ford moment that denied the opposition the presidency in the 1992 first multi-party election could be rearing its face again ahead of the 2027 General Elections, and the opposition may fall to the axe.
The Ford moment could be sneaking back after 35 years and may strike the opposition parties that are currently struggling to present a joint presidential candidate to face President William Ruto.
The political caucus Ford that brought in place the doyen of opposition leaders, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the late Martin Shikuku and other old guards and young Turks like James Orengo, Raila Odinga, Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, Paul Muite, Gitobu Imanyara, the late George Kapten, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, among others, in agitation for constitutional reforms, forced then President Daniel Arap Moi to amend the Constitution.
Subsequently, in December 1991, President Daniel Arap Moi oversaw the repeal of Section 2A of the Kenyan Constitution, which had previously established the Kenya African National Union (KANU) as the sole legal political party. This action effectively ended Kenya’s one-party state and paved the way for a multi-party political system.
After the repeal, the opposition smelled victory in the presidential election, but the scramble over a single presidential candidate handed victory to Moi.
Power struggles, mistrust, tribalism, individual ambition, and interference from outside precipitated the fallout between Oginga and Kenneth Matiba.
Consequently, Ford split into two, with Oginga forming Ford-K, while Matiba formed the Ford-Asili wing.
Equally, the emerging political space enticed former Vice President Mwai Kibaki, who was against the constitutional change crusade, to resign and found the Democratic Party of Kenya (DP).
In the popular vote, Moi received 1,962,866 votes accounting for 36.35% to win the election, while Matiba got 1,404,286 votes accounting for 26%.
Kibaki came third with 1,050,617 votes accounting for 19.46%, while Oginga came fourth with 944,197 votes accounting for 17.48%.
From the data, a divided opposition shared 3,399,100 votes, handing Moi the victory and a subsequent second term in the 1996 presidential election.
Currently, opposition leaders Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper Party, impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua of DCP, Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa, and Fred Matiang’i have been trying to forge unity ahead of the next General Election.
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party has settled on Matiang’i as its presidential candidate, while Rigathi and Kalonzo have embarked on countrywide “meet-the-people” tours in readiness for the presidential contest.
Already in Mt Kenya, Rigathi and Uhuru are reading from different scripts, with each wanting their political parties to dominate the region—an indicator of a likely fallout in the opposition.
Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni said during a recent TV interview that it was retrogressive of Gachagua to try to balkanise the region for his DCP party.
“The important thing we can do as leaders in this country is to allow the growth of many political parties. As we head to 2027, I have heard people say that their region will only have one political party.
If you are not vying through my political party, then you are a nobody. That is very retrogressive.
It is a demonstration of a person who has not paid attention to the history of the country or someone who thinks we were selling njugu karanga when people were being killed because of multi-party democracy.
It is important to note that you don’t kill other parties as you sell your party. I have also heard others say, Matiang’i should go back and form his party from Kisii to seek the presidency.
Why do you have to demean the stature of the person and make him look like a local leader? If you want to become a leader of this nation, you don’t go to a local party but you go to a national platform.
How arrogant can one be to try to choose a party I should use as a candidate?
Matiang’i has a track record of what Jubilee can do and what they did when they were in leadership.
Matiang’i understands the Jubilee agenda. The issue and the question should be: are you better than Matiang’i, can you compete with him?
While we are saying that we should sit and agree on a united presidential candidate, I demand that at that table, we want to see a representation of Gen Z and the face of the country, and the presidential candidates, because we do not want to be given a candidate who has not been chosen by Kenyans,” he said.
Gachagua had declared that his party DCP was the only political party in the Mt Kenya region and that it was the party the region would use to seek alliances with other political outfits and leaders.
“Now we have our party DCP. You know our party. That is the party for this region.
We will use this party to seek alliances from other regions. The bedrock of DCP is Mt Kenya. We must have a strong party with over 150 MPs to protect our interests in Parliament.
We must have over 20 Senators to protect our interests in the Senate and we must have over 800 MCAs to protect our interests in the County Assemblies.
In 1992, Moi played us. The people of Murang’a, Kiambu, and Nairobi followed Matiba, while the people from Nyeri, Meru, Laikipia, Kirinyaga, and Embu followed Kibaki—and Moi rode between them to victory,” he said.
The push and pull between Wamunyoro and Ichaweri is a precursor to what may befall the opposition in the 2027 presidential election. From the land of Omugusii, Matiang’i and former Chief Justice David Maraga are all interested in the seat, and from recent events, each may go their own path to the presidency.
Equally, in the order of seniority, Kalonzo comes first while the rest are political greenhorns with no experience, and it would be difficult to convince the former Vice President to forgo his ambition.
With advancing age, Kalonzo and his supporters may find it hard to support a greenhorn for the presidency.
Edited by Sandra Blessing
